Texas Winter 2013-2014

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cycloneye
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Re:

#9721 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 04, 2014 7:27 pm

Ntxw wrote:What I can tell you from the ENS, CFSv2, and teleconnections is a moderating pattern the coming weekv (From this weekend forward). Caveat is -SOI and the STJ will likely feed into the westerlies. Storms and cutoffs (PNA ridge with systems underneath) will likely keep things average or slightly below average. Then signal is strong (given it is long range) a return of the -EPO and ridging will happen towards the vernal equinox.


The 30 day SOI continues to crash. See how negative it has gone in the recent data at the ENSO Thread.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#9722 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Mar 04, 2014 7:30 pm

I really hope the storm system this weekend brings much of Texas a lot of beneficial rainfall. Several runs of the Euro and GFS have shown this system bringing over 1 inch of rain to a large part of the state. Now it seems the models are having trouble handling the system. I just hope it can bring us some nice heavy rains.
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#9723 Postby dhweather » Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:27 pm

I cannot emphasize how desperate we are for rain, lakes are approaching 2006 levels and it's not August/September, it's March 4. If we don't get significant rains this spring, Stage 4 drought restrictions are a foregone conclusion.
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Re:

#9724 Postby Ntxw » Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:37 pm

dhweather wrote:I cannot emphasize how desperate we are for rain, lakes are approaching 2006 levels and it's not August/September, it's March 4. If we don't get significant rains this spring, Stage 4 drought restrictions are a foregone conclusion.


I hope so too. What I can say is that the Pacific is no longer against us regarding rain. Lets root on this possible coming El Nino and hope it is a big one to end the multi year drought like the one in 1957.
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#9725 Postby dhweather » Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:41 pm

Just checked requirements for stage 4, Lavon has to be at 35% of below. It's at 48% in winter months, so a dry spring would be a killer. We would likely slide under 35% by june-ish. I'm hoping it goes nuts like 2007 and ends the drought madness.

I read where the Texas cattle herd is at a 60 year low because of the drought. The impact of drought is wide and devastating. The economic impacts are as bad or worse than most other weather events. :cry:
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#9726 Postby dhweather » Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:57 pm

Interesting read: http://www.window.state.tx.us/specialrp ... yTimes.php

Scenario 2: Severe Drought

In a severe drought such as the drought of record, Texas might average between 22.5 and four inches of rain annually, moving from east to west, for five to 10 years.
Consequences:

Surface water supplies are strained, requiring more extensive use of both fresh and brackish groundwater.
Texas’ municipalities are forced to absorb millions of dollars in costs to fix water mains cracked and buckled by dried-out soils.
Municipal water rates may rise dramatically.
Texas agriculture takes billions of dollars in losses. Many farmers stop planting, and some leave the business entirely. Cattle herds are greatly reduced as forage becomes prohibitively expensive.
As a result, food costs may rise substantially.
Many businesses based on recreation on Texas lakes and streams dry up and disappear.
Destructive wildfires may sweep through the tinder-dry state each summer, destroying millions of dollars’ worth of homes, businesses and timber.
Irrigation of trees, shrubs, flowering plants and lawns is restricted; many plants used in landscaping die.
Lack of rainfall leads to increased salinity in Texas’ bays and estuaries, damaging oyster, shrimp and crab yields.
Low-flush and dual-flush toilets and other low-flow water appliances are required or strongly recommended and may receive significant tax and installation rebates.
Texans face “convenience costs” as well — scarce and expensive water makes Texans think twice about using appliances they once took for granted, such as dishwashers and clothes washing machines.




Scenario 3: MegaDrought

Texas’ water planning process uses the 1950s “drought of record” as a worst-case scenario. Unfortunately, scientific evidence from tree-ring studies indicates that the 1950s drought may be far from a true worst-case scenario.

Say that Texas receives half of its “normal” average annual rainfall, 13 inches or so, for two decades. Our semi-tropical regions would become arid, while our semi-arid regions would become desert. This situation would create tremendous social changes.
Consequences:

Texas agriculture would change dramatically, and might end in some areas. Drip irrigation and other techniques pioneered in desert areas would become essential.
Remaining agriculture might become dependent on “water markets,” in which the rights to draw groundwater are bought and sold.
Food prices, particularly beef prices, would increase significantly.
Turf grass lawns and all outside watering might be banned.
Low-flow water appliances would become mandatory.
Wastewater would become quite valuable, and would be reclaimed for reuse in irrigation and perhaps treated to make it suitable for human consumption.
Desalination of brackish (salty) groundwater and seawater would become common, at first for industrial and agricultural uses and then for drinking water.
Utility rates could be expected to skyrocket due to the increased expense of water obtained through desalination or reuse, and the higher costs faced by energy plants that rely on water for cooling.
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Delicious Magic

#9727 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Mar 05, 2014 12:48 am

Houstonia wrote:When it's mid-August and the wind drops to a standstill and the humidity is so high you can almost feel the mold grow on you when you stand outside.

When the sun is so hot, it blisters the sidewalks and it's so white and glaring it's like a jewel.

When it's 8:30 at night and you think, "maybe it's cool enough to go outside", only to walk out into what feels like a steam furnace and you touch your hand to brick and quickly pull away due to the hotness.

When walking from your car to the store and then back again feels like you've crossed seasons because of the 30 degree difference in temperature (freezing inside, blistering outside).

When, at about 3 pm, everything seems to come to a halt. No wind, no sound, everything is sleeping. And then the afternoon thunderstorm rolls in - thick clouds, lightning thunder and torrential rains (we hope) until suddenly, it all shuts off like a faucet and the grass seems a little greener and lusher, and steam rises from the cement.

When that time comes, I will kneel down and kiss the hot, humid ground.
:sun: :sun: :sun: :sun: :sun:

Thank you, I really needed to read this to remind myself of how great heat and summer is. When your lows are in the -20s in March, it really becomes sobering. People are losing it over here.

WeatherGuesser wrote:Certainly hope something blocks damaging storms.

Magic will do it. I hope this weird magic also bakes us this summer. Then I want it to deliver delicious food to my doorstep.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#9728 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Mar 05, 2014 8:35 am

30 degrees this morning, another freeze in Texomaland.

Lots of frost, some fog, and a 30% chance of rain/snow tonight here along the river.
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#9729 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Mar 05, 2014 9:12 am

20s and freezing fog at my place in Lindale with some sleet on the ground this morning.
Around freezing now at my office in Tyler with much more sleet left on the ground and some on the roads still.

Here is a pic from my office downtown.
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Last edited by Ralph's Weather on Wed Mar 05, 2014 9:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#9730 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Mar 05, 2014 9:15 am

gboudx wrote:From the DFW NWS:

WITH SNOW FLURRIES ON MONDAY...DFW AIRPORT RECORDED ITS 14TH CALENDAR
DAY WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION THIS SEASON. THIS IS THE MOST IN ANY
SEASON SINCE 1978-1979 (WHEN THERE WERE 17 DAYS).

AT WACO...THERE HAVE BEEN 10 DAYS WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THIS IS
THE MOST SINCE 1987-1988 (WHEN THERE WERE 11 DAYS).

NOTE: THESE DATA INCLUDE ALL OCCURRENCES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
SNOW AND SLEET AS WELL AS FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. A
SEASON FOR SNOWFALL (AND OTHER WINTRY PRECIPITATION)...FREEZES...AND
HEATING DEGREE DAYS IS THE 12-MONTH PERIOD FROM JULY 1 TO JUNE 30 OF
THE FOLLOWING YEAR.


I believe the bolded part also answers gpsnowman's question on the previous page.

gpsnowman wrote:Another question. The freeze numbers, are they for just the DJF period or are the numbers from the start of winter to the end? We had freezes in November and obviously some to start March. Just didn't know if those were included in the overall totals. Thanks.

Thanks gboudx. This does answer my question. I had no idea this is how these particular stats were compiled. Kind of like a fiscal weather year. And you can add another freeze to the total from this morning. They just keep on piling up.
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#9731 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Mar 05, 2014 9:35 am

Witness to Winter
55 Freezes
Major ice storm in December
Heavy sleet more than once
Snow(not much accumulation but heavy a couple times)
Freezing rain
Freezing fog
Numerous mornings in the teens
A March morning at 14 degrees
A March morning with wind chills below zero
Graupel
And wxman57's total transformation into a lover of all things cold
I hope I did not forget anything
I did forget something, North Texas lake effect snow flurries
Last edited by gpsnowman on Wed Mar 05, 2014 10:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#9732 Postby texas1836 » Wed Mar 05, 2014 9:45 am

dhweather wrote:Just checked requirements for stage 4, Lavon has to be at 35% of below. It's at 48% in winter months, so a dry spring would be a killer. We would likely slide under 35% by june-ish. I'm hoping it goes nuts like 2007 and ends the drought madness.

I read where the Texas cattle herd is at a 60 year low because of the drought. The impact of drought is wide and devastating. The economic impacts are as bad or worse than most other weather events. :cry:


Water treatment plants I, II, III and IV will be online treating Texoma water supply by this June, per Denise Hickey of NTMWD.
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#9733 Postby Ntxw » Wed Mar 05, 2014 9:52 am

55th freeze for DFW this morning. 1 away from top 5 and 7 from 1st spot.
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Re:

#9734 Postby texas1836 » Wed Mar 05, 2014 9:58 am

Ntxw wrote:55th freeze for DFW this morning. 1 away from top 5 and 7 from 1st spot.

I think we can easily reach that. I believe we have one more freak storm, with ice, coming.
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#9735 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Mar 05, 2014 10:03 am

:uarrow: is that the system that will be coming next week?
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Re: Re:

#9736 Postby RedRiverRefuge » Wed Mar 05, 2014 10:06 am

texas1836 wrote:
dhweather wrote:Just checked requirements for stage 4, Lavon has to be at 35% of below. It's at 48% in winter months, so a dry spring would be a killer. We would likely slide under 35% by june-ish. I'm hoping it goes nuts like 2007 and ends the drought madness.

I read where the Texas cattle herd is at a 60 year low because of the drought. The impact of drought is wide and devastating. The economic impacts are as bad or worse than most other weather events. :cry:


Water treatment plants I, II, III and IV will be online treating Texoma water supply by this June, per Denise Hickey of NTMWD.



:uarrow: Well thats just great news. Texoma is already lower than it has been in 40 years. Desperately need some drought busting upstream. Nothing like sending water down to metroplex to keep all those lawns, nice and green. I know off winter weather topic but had to chime in being from the Red River Area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#9737 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Mar 05, 2014 10:32 am

Hey haven't we heard that before? :lol:


wxman57 wrote:Euro ensembles indicate another cold surge Saturday night and another next Thursday across Texas. Nothing remotely close to the current airmass. For example, no additional freezes are indicated in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area after tonight (and possibly Thursday morning) through 240 hrs. In the extended range, the GFS isn't indicating any sub-40 temps in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area from March 13th through March 20th. It is with great sorrow that I announce the models appear to be indicating a slow transition to spring and no more Texas ice storms.

:crying:
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#9738 Postby aggiecutter » Wed Mar 05, 2014 11:20 am

50 % chance of a wintry mix for Texarkana tonight.
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Re:

#9739 Postby wxman57 » Wed Mar 05, 2014 11:39 am

aggiecutter wrote:50 % chance of a wintry mix for Texarkana tonight.


That's odd (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/). I'm checking various model soundings and note that the airmass over Texarkana is above-freezing from just above the surface up to about 10,000 ft currently and this evening/tonight. The Shreveport AFD mentions temps dropping to freezing tonight, which is also odd, as that looks unlikely. Even if temps dropped to near freezing at the surface tonight, the profile aloft is not one that would produce snow.

Here's a NAM sounding for 06Z (midnight). Note the surface temperature into the 40s and above-freezing air up to just below the 700mb (10,000ft) level. Also note the relative lack of moisture. I would not forecast winter precip with such a sounding.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#9740 Postby wxman57 » Wed Mar 05, 2014 12:00 pm

12Z GFS is in. Not one drop of rain indicated for Houston for the next 10 days. Beyond then, a little rain around the 16th and again the 19th-20th. I measured about 1.5" of rain yesterday and about 3 inches in February. No drought in my neighborhood yet. Note that normal temps for the first half of March are lows in the low 50s and highs in the low 70s (for Houston).

Image

Image
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