Expert forecasts for 2014 N Atl Hurricane season

[hurricanetrack]

FWIW - Joe B had this to say today in his blog:

"The atlantic now has a cold AMO look, hostile for deep tropical development but the warm water in close means a very tough year as far as landfall impact goes. Will talk about that later"

We shall see.

[ninel conde]

FWIW - Joe B had this to say today in his blog:

"The atlantic now has a cold AMO look, hostile for deep tropical development but the warm water in close means a very tough year as far as landfall impact goes. Will talk about that later"

We shall see.

seems like every year the deep tropics are hostile for one reason or other. i personally think the active period is over and a strong el nino this season will be the exclamation point. in other active periods did we ever have 2 dead seasons in a row? as far as any in close development i suppose its possible but only if there is a west atlantic ridge but even that might not matter when every indicator is showing a slower season than last year, if thats possible. I feel more and more confident in saying 2013/14 will be deader than the 82/83 period. the 82/83 years had a combined ACE of 46 and i think this one will be lower. i think we will look back and realize 2013 was the start of the next dead period.

[hurricanetrack]

Give me a list of "every indicator" please. With all the time we have between now and the peak of the season, it will be interesting to see how well this list verifies.

[cycloneye]

Close to land developments will be a threat in 2014 season.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 12 min
Cold N indian ocean, tropical atlantic, coming nino means lack of african waves again,but warm in close water problem

[ninel conde]

Give me a list of "every indicator" please. With all the time we have between now and the peak of the season, it will be interesting to see how well this list verifies.

warm pacific sst's, cold atlantic, ripping wind shear, very high pressures over the deep tropics, off the chart atlantic stability, dry air will flood the atlantic, string of upper lows, and the QBO aint so hot.

[ninel conde]

Close to land developments will be a threat in 2014 season.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 12 min
Cold N indian ocean, tropical atlantic, coming nino means lack of african waves again,but warm in close water problem

i agree that the only source of development will be upper lows or weak spinups off fronts, but any in close development needs a reversal of the multi-year east coast trof. 5/2/0 seems about right this season though in any season an andrew can form if it develops at the perfect time when the extreme hostile conditions temporarily relax. i do think 2015 will be at least average. im not sure its possible to have 3 straight years with an ACE below 30.

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I have been harping for a while that I believe this year will be an El Nino, and a traditional one at that, not a Modoki. Looking at what is out there right now, the graphic I saw in the main ENSO thread comparing the current setup to one we had in April 1997 is indeed very compelling, and I am considering now too that we could have a "super El Nino." Either way, I am expecting a quiet season in the Atlantic.

But, again, even if this is a super El Nino, you have to remember that as some above have alluded to, frontal systems in the Gulf of Mexico have produced hurricanes in the last couple ones. In the 1982-83 episode, as that one was tailing off, came Alicia (and for what it's worth, even during the peak in 1982, Tropical Storm Chris was awfully close). 1997 saw the annoyance for much of the South but primarily Alabama that was Hurricane Danny.

As for the number of storms and where they will go, although seeing 5 storms is a common prediction, there always seems to be those one or two storms that are so short-lived, but occur and are caught during the season that get named, even during El Nino years. On that balance, I predict we will still have seven or eight storms, but maybe only two or three hurricanes. I am still leaning towards one major hurricane too, even if just barely and for a short period of time. Even 1982, 1983, and 1997 each had one (although I recall one met on here suggesting a few years back that he thought Alicia could have been a category 2 instead, and its lowest pressure was above 960 mb). It's also extremely rare - if not unheard of - to go two straight years in the Atlantic without a major.

Be ready regardless though, as it only takes one to make a season. Ask people who endured Alicia and/or Andrew all about that.

-Andrew92

[ninel conde]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I have been harping for a while that I believe this year will be an El Nino, and a traditional one at that, not a Modoki. Looking at what is out there right now, the graphic I saw in the main ENSO thread comparing the current setup to one we had in April 1997 is indeed very compelling, and I am considering now too that we could have a "super El Nino." Either way, I am expecting a quiet season in the Atlantic.

But, again, even if this is a super El Nino, you have to remember that as some above have alluded to, frontal systems in the Gulf of Mexico have produced hurricanes in the last couple ones. In the 1982-83 episode, as that one was tailing off, came Alicia (and for what it's worth, even during the peak in 1982, Tropical Storm Chris was awfully close). 1997 saw the annoyance for much of the South but primarily Alabama that was Hurricane Danny.

As for the number of storms and where they will go, although seeing 5 storms is a common prediction, there always seems to be those one or two storms that are so short-lived, but occur and are caught during the season that get named, even during El Nino years. On that balance, I predict we will still have seven or eight storms, but maybe only two or three hurricanes. I am still leaning towards one major hurricane too, even if just barely and for a short period of time. Even 1982, 1983, and 1997 each had one (although I recall one met on here suggesting a few years back that he thought Alicia could have been a category 2 instead, and its lowest pressure was above 960 mb). It's also extremely rare - if not unheard of - to go two straight years in the Atlantic without a major.

Be ready regardless though, as it only takes one to make a season. Ask people who endured Alicia and/or Andrew all about that.

-Andrew92

sounds reasonable to me. personally i expect the record streak of no major landfalls to continue.

[wxman57]

seems like every year the deep tropics are hostile for one reason or other. i personally think the active period is over and a strong el nino this season will be the exclamation point. in other active periods did we ever have 2 dead seasons in a row? as far as any in close development i suppose its possible but only if there is a west atlantic ridge but even that might not matter when every indicator is showing a slower season than last year, if thats possible. I feel more and more confident in saying 2013/14 will be deader than the 82/83 period. the 82/83 years had a combined ACE of 46 and i think this one will be lower. i think we will look back and realize 2013 was the start of the next dead period.

The '83 season wasn't very "dead" here in Houston. The only Cat 3 hurricane of the season hit us head-on. I wonder how most people (general public) determine whether the season was "active" or "inactive". I'll bet it has something to do with whether they were impacted or not. I'll be speaking at Chris Landsea's session at the NHC this April. My topic will be seasonal forecasts. Doing a lot of research on past seasons presently to see where the data will take me.

Oh, and my initial thoughts on 2014 are 11/5/2, which is a little below notmal. Interestingly enough, analog seasons (weak to moderate El Nino) were often fairly active, particularly in the western Caribbean, Gulf and near the Bahamas.

[ninel conde]

seems like every year the deep tropics are hostile for one reason or other. i personally think the active period is over and a strong el nino this season will be the exclamation point. in other active periods did we ever have 2 dead seasons in a row? as far as any in close development i suppose its possible but only if there is a west atlantic ridge but even that might not matter when every indicator is showing a slower season than last year, if thats possible. I feel more and more confident in saying 2013/14 will be deader than the 82/83 period. the 82/83 years had a combined ACE of 46 and i think this one will be lower. i think we will look back and realize 2013 was the start of the next dead period.

The '83 season wasn't very "dead" here in Houston. The only Cat 3 hurricane of the season hit us head-on. I wonder how most people (general public) determine whether the season was "active" or "inactive". I'll bet it has something to do with whether they were impacted or not. I'll be speaking at Chris Landsea's session at the NHC this April. My topic will be seasonal forecasts. Doing a lot of research on past seasons presently to see where the data will take me.

Oh, and my initial thoughts on 2014 are 11/5/2, which is a little below notmal. Interestingly enough, analog seasons (weak to moderate El Nino) were often fairly active, particularly in the western Caribbean, Gulf and near the Bahamas.

well, i did say anything can happen if a storm develops at the perfect time in an otherwise dead season.

back to JB'S predictions, they have been pretty bad the last few tropical seasons. he keeps harping on how we have entered a period like 54/55 with many landfalls, yet the last few years and this season bear zero resemblance to 54/55.

[wxman57]

well, i did say anything can happen if a storm develops at the perfect time in an otherwise dead season.

back to JB'S predictions, they have been pretty bad the last few tropical seasons. he keeps harping on how we have entered a period like 54/55 with many landfalls, yet the last few years and this season bear zero resemblance to 54/55.

The U.S. East Coast had significant impacts in '54-'55. In the past couple of years, that area was hit very hard by Sandy and less hard by Irene. Looks pretty similar to the mid 50s to me, except that neither was stronger than a Cat 1.

[cycloneye]

CSU will continue to do forecasts in 2014

They got some funding at least to do the forecasts thru August.

They didn't want to end on such a sour note.

Following the self-described "worst" seasonal hurricane forecast in 30 years in 2013, Colorado State University (CSU) meteorologists Phil Klotzbach and William Gray were at risk of losing funding for their well-known Tropical Meteorology Project.

But there is hope for this season, at least for now: "While we are not fully funded, we have made some reasonable progress in obtaining funding over the past few weeks," Klotzbach writes in an e-mail.

"At this point, we will definitely put out the forecast in April and will hopefully follow that up with updates in June and August," he said.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2 ... y/6081241/

[ninel conde]

well, i did say anything can happen if a storm develops at the perfect time in an otherwise dead season.

back to JB'S predictions, they have been pretty bad the last few tropical seasons. he keeps harping on how we have entered a period like 54/55 with many landfalls, yet the last few years and this season bear zero resemblance to 54/55.

The U.S. East Coast had significant impacts in '54-'55. In the past couple of years, that area was hit very hard by Sandy and less hard by Irene. Looks pretty similar to the mid 50s to me, except that neither was stronger than a Cat 1.

not close. 54/55 had 6 hurricane landfalls, several majors.

[beoumont]

Even if anyone does have a good handle on precisely what happened in 2013 (which I don't think is true), then the next question would be can such conditions be forecast many months in advance? Phil Klotzbach & I have discussed last season quite a bit and there are significant questions as to whether such conditions can be forecast for more than a month in advance. Instability across the Caribbean & Tropical Atlantic remains well below normal. Will that change by summer? Who can tell?

I agree with Klotzbach and you: forecasting such conditions more than a month in advance is highly subject to extreme error. Only folks with no responsibilities to the public indulge in such soothsaying.

[WeatherGuesser]

Regardless of crystal ball accuracy, it won't take much of a storm to produce dire consequences.

Considering the time span since a major strike and the population changes, it's reasonable to believe that a majority of people living along the coast today have never experienced a Major Hurricane direct strike. Many of those that did moved away.

While building codes and construction in many areas has been improved, most people simply won't know what to do if a Cat 4 or 5 threatens a major population area. I'm not even sure the emergency response plans have adequately accounted for the population changes.

Florida is already reeling from some agricultural problems affecting citrus and other crops. What happens there if they get another year of multiple strikes like they did in '04?

[cycloneye]

Not a good sign for an active North Atlantic 2014 season if what the ECMWF precipitation forecast for June,July and August dry forecast for MDR/Caribbean pans out.

[Hurricaneman]

El Nino doesn't guarantee that a Hurricane or a major one cant hit, the thing to watch out for on that front for the atlantic especially land areas is if there are any small period of little to no EPAC development as those are the most likely periods with lowest shear and highest probability of getting a hurricane or a major one as what happened with Danny in 1997, Bob in 1991 or even Alicia in 1983

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ninel conde]

Not a good sign for an active North Atlantic 2014 season if what the ECMWF precipitation forecast for June,July and August dry forecast for MDR/Caribbean pans out.

http://oi60.tinypic.com/1zokh1y.jpg

that goes along with the very high pressures forecasted. will be interesting if we can set 2 records this season. lowest ACE and most stable tropical atlantic ever.

[tolakram]

saved image

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I'm not buying into the close in development this season either. Jb and others harped on it so much last year and there was nothing. Conditions this year look to be shaping up to be as bad or possibly worse. Good thing for me since will be going down to the Caribbean a couple of times.