Excerpt from NHC 8 p.m. disc. doesn't sound like........

[dixiebreeze]

anyone is expecting a strong trough to pull Isabel N or NW.:

THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF ISABEL IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO ALLOWING ISABEL TO REMAIN S OF A
MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AS IT MOVES IN TANDEM WITH THE
STORM.

Anyone have an idea how this squares with a NW turn?

[chris_fit]

Interesting :o

Is that official weather statement? So I'm sorta right? haha

~Chris

[opera ghost]

Does this mean that she's going under the ULL that used to be in front of her? I'm interested strictly for personal verification purposes *grins* as I said she would much earlier and would be happy to know I ~guessed~ right.

[dixiebreeze]

Yes, it's part of the official NHC 8 p.m. statement. What is it you're right about?

[Josephine96]

Could mean more trouble for Florida.. but how much do you wanna bet.. THE LOCAL METS AINT GONNA SAY JACK ABOUT THAT STATEMENT AT 10 OR 11PM..

{slaps self so I don't go into another local met rant}

[Anonymous]

The high is not expected to go anywhere during the next few days. But it will tilt to the right some due to Henri or ex-Henri or whatever you want to call the dude, allowing Isabel to curve more towards the WNW. Beyond that time the key feature will be the mid latitude trough, which is forecasted to be in the central plains in 120hrs.

[Josephine96]

well then there you go.. apparently the ridge is moving westward too.. tense moments ahead huh...

I can see the lines in grocery stores building now..

[ColinD]

From:Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Fri 12 Sep 2003


Here's the full text.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/AXNT20.html

[bev1]

What does all this mean??????

[Anonymous]

Means the ridge will move along with Isabel, preventing her from making any sharp turns to the north anytime soon. Though I expect more of a WNW motion in agreement with the NHC rather than W due to an erosion of the ridge on the western side. Isabel could still turn out to sea just in the nick of time from a mid latitude trough shortly after the 5-day period...but anything beyond the 5-day period is pretty much a big question mark at this point.

[Air Force Met]

Doesn't affect it at all. Notice it says over the next day or so. The NW turn is still 3 or 4 days away. So...the next 24 hours is not in conflict with any northwest turn that is forecast 5 day out. The models are all in agreement that the storm will still be moving west in 24 hours. This statement doesn't change anything...it's 24 HOURS....not 96 HOURS. in 24 hours this thing is still 5 days away.

If this thing was sitting over the Bahamas...then you might have something...but it hasn't even crossed 60W yet...it's not at 75W. Gotta keep perspective!

[chris_fit]

Yes, it's part of the official NHC 8 p.m. statement. What is it you're right about?

THIS:
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF ISABEL IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO ALLOWING ISABEL TO REMAIN S OF A
MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AS IT MOVES IN TANDEM WITH THE
STORM.

&

THIS:
THE ANTICYCLONE/RIDGE IS BEING PUSHED
WESTWARD

And I added my own little thing of the ridge gettin stronger

~Chris

[dixiebreeze]

OK Chris, gotcha