ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

Looking at the Nino regions from http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/



Nino 4.0 is holding steady at +0.5.
Nino 3.4 is holding steady at -5.0.
Nino 3 is climbing away from its La-Nina levels of -1.0.
Nino 1+2 is REALLY climbing away from its La-Nina levels of -1.5.

Question is: why are Nino's 3 and 1+2 warming before the 3.4 and 4.0?

[Hammy]

I could be completely wrong because I'm basing this solely off of the graphs, but could the rapid warming in 1+2 be that it's catching up, so to speak, to the 3+4 regions?

[Kingarabian]

I could be completely wrong because I'm basing this solely off of the graphs, but could the rapid warming in 1+2 be that it's catching up, so to speak, to the 3+4 regions?

It could be.

But since Kelvin waves move West to East (excuse me if I'm wrong), I would assume that that the 4 and 3.4 regions would warm up first.

[cycloneye]

I could be completely wrong because I'm basing this solely off of the graphs, but could the rapid warming in 1+2 be that it's catching up, so to speak, to the 3+4 regions?

It could be.

But since Kelvin waves move West to East (excuse me if I'm wrong), I would assume that that the 4 and 3.4 regions would warm up first.

If you look at the sub-surface loop,the core of the warm pool moves east bypassing 3.4.

[Ntxw]

Twin subtropical jets in the northern and southern hemisphere Pacific that is typically seen with ENSO positive. The southern jet is likely the one helping the -SOI since it's near and over Tahiti with lower pressures.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center March update of 3/6/14

For the first time in many many CPC issues a El Nino watch.But they caution as the spring barrier tends to make models less reliable.They also say that if more west wind bursts occur,El Nino coming will be a done deal.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sc_Sp.html

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, with about a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the summer or fall.

ENSO-neutral continued during February 2014, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continuing in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and above-average SSTs increasing near the International Date Line (Fig. 1). Overall, the weekly Niño indices were variable during the month, with most indices remaining less than -0.5oC (Fig. 2). A significant downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave increased the oceanic heat content (Fig. 3) and produced large positive subsurface temperature anomalies across the central and east-central Pacific (Fig. 4). In addition, toward the end of the month, strong low-level westerly winds re-appeared over the western equatorial Pacific. Convection was suppressed over western Indonesia and the central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect ENSO-neutral.

The model predictions of ENSO for this summer and beyond are relatively unchanged from last month. Almost all the models indicate that ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5oC and 0.5oC) will persist through the rest of the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014 (Fig. 6). While all models predict warming in the tropical Pacific, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether El Niño will develop during the summer or fall. If westerly winds continue to emerge in the western equatorial Pacific, the development of El Niño would become more likely. However, the lower forecast skill during the spring and overall propensity for cooler conditions over the last decade still justify significant probabilities for ENSO-neutral. The consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, with about a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the summer or fall (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

[Ntxw]

Mountain torque (as a result GWO) is going through a big positive wave particularly from Asia. Possible another mjo Kelvin wave will kick up in the wpac once this current one is done moving east.

[euro6208]

Westerly Wind Burst equals more tropical cyclones maybe strong typhoons for the West Pacific equals El nino.

A sign to look out for.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters interesting discussion about the CPC El Nino Watch.



None of the El Niño models predict La Niña conditions for peak hurricane season, August-September-October 2014, and 8 of 18 predict El Niño conditions. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer for three consecutive months for an El Niño episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were -0.6°C from average as of March 3, and have been +0.1 to -0.7°C from average since April 1, 2013. El Niño conditions tend to make quieter than average Atlantic hurricane seasons, due to an increase in upper-level winds that create strong wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic.




An impressive westerly wind burst over the Equatorial Pacific

The potential El Niño event has been made more likely over the past month due to the intensification of a strong "Westerly Wind Burst" (WWB) along the equatorial Pacific west of the Date Line. As of March 6, 2014, westerly winds that were more than 10 m/s (22 mph) stronger than average had developed between 140 - 150°E, just north of New Guinea. These unusually strong westerly winds were acting to push warm water piled up to the east of the Philippines eastwards towards South America. The "Westerly Wind Burst" was due, in part, to the counter-clockwise circulation of wind around Typhoon Faxai, which became a tropical storm on February 28 near 9°N, 149°E, and later intensified into a Category 1 typhoon. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, was also likely involved in amplifying the WWB. In order to keep the momentum of this WWB going and trigger a full-fledged El Niño event, some additional west-to-east push of winds is likely needed during March and April. Some extra push may come from a tropical disturbance (96P) that has developed this week south of the Equator near 13°S 153°E, to the northeast of Australia. The clockwise circulation of air around this storm is bringing increased westerly winds to the Equator in the region of the WWB, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is giving this disturbance a "medium" chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Friday. The GFS and European models predict that this storm will move southwards and bring heavy rain to the Queensland province of Australia over the weekend.



Departure of the 5-day average west-to-east blowing wind (the "zonal" wind) from average, averaged along the Equator, between 2°S and 2°N. A strong "Westerly Wind Burst" (WWB) formed in January 2014 near 140°E, and has intensified and propagated eastwards along the Equator. As of March 6, 2014, westerly winds that were more than 10 m/s (22 mph) stronger than average had developed.

[CaliforniaResident]

What does this mean for summer and fall in Southern California? (We only get rain in winter and early spring). Does this mean more heat waves and less morning fog for us in summer (more fire danger in earlier summer) followed by a very wet winter (by LA standards as their average is only 15 inches of rain per year but can be less than 5 during droughts and more than 30 during El Ninos). Could it mean we start getting rain in September rather than having to wait until November for the first rain of the fall (ending fire season early)?

[WeatherGuesser]

For whatever it's worth, the Media seems to be picking up on it:

Hurricane forecasters are reporting signs of a developing El Niño, a weather phenomenon that can significantly suppress the number of hurricanes over the upcoming six-month Atlantic season.

....

An El Niño occurs when warm surface waters from the western Pacific Ocean are pushed to the eastern Pacific. The warmer surface waters cause upper atmospheric storms and shearing winds that can thwart hurricane formation thousands of miles away in the Atlantic basin — the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/weather/hu ... on/2168849

[wxman57]

The 2004 season may be an El Nino analog for the coming season. A weak to moderate El Nino doesn't mean no tropical threats.

[Ntxw]

The 2004 season may be an El Nino analog for the coming season. A weak to moderate El Nino doesn't mean no tropical threats.

I cant speak for the hurricane season, but I dont think the 2004 nino is a good analog. Warm pool for that one was much weaker than what we see now and it was a result of residual +PDO and the big 02 nino. Much of it was surface warming in the west and not resulting from deep warm pool nino as we may be seeing.

[Steve H.]

People tend to get excited about these El Nino alerts, kinda like hearing PV for the first time. El Nino's don't necessarily mean an inactive season. We shall see.

[cycloneye]

It will be important to see how they forecast ENSO in the next few months with missing data from bouys.



http://mashable.com/2014/03/06/buoy-arr ... -main-link

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

What does this mean for summer and fall in Southern California? (We only get rain in winter and early spring). Does this mean more heat waves and less morning fog for us in summer (more fire danger in earlier summer) followed by a very wet winter (by LA standards as their average is only 15 inches of rain per year but can be less than 5 during droughts and more than 30 during El Ninos). Could it mean we start getting rain in September rather than having to wait until November for the first rain of the fall (ending fire season early)?

Rain. And a lot of it. Generally below-average temperatures.

[cycloneye]

30 day SOI down to -4.7

20140204,20140305,-4.7

[Hurricaneman]

This will most likely quell the hurricane season but one can only look back at some past seasons with moderate to strong El Ninos and here they are as follows with US hurricane Landfall. As we all say it only takes one to make a memorable hurricane season

1957: Audrey
1963: Cindy
1965: Betsy
1972: Agnes
1983: Alicia
1987: Floyd
1991: Bob
1992: Andrew
1993: Emily
1994: Christmas eve storm aka TS Santa{may have been hurricane at NE Landfall we'll see after reanalysis}
1997: Danny
2002: Lili

as noted above most el nino seasons do feature one hurricane landfall and a few of those even featured a major landfall so even if el nino develops and is moderate to strong doesn't mean let your guard down as even in these type seasons you can still have pockets of low shear and if these systems find them there could be major problems

[Ntxw]

El Nino's typically feature below to well below normal ACE. The only nino that featured above normal ACE was 2004 (if there is another please feel free to add), so that year is a rarity being one. So people keep referencing 2004 and Nino's but lets not do that too often because it was an oddity. The peak +PDO and +AMO probably played a bigger role than the Nino itself.

However the ACE stats says very little about landfalls as Hurricaneman alluded to. This often is dependent on where systems form and the conditions on short time scales rather than the broad overall signal which should be taken in consideration but not gospel.

To continue on my post earlier about MT and possible MJO waves returning to the Pacific once the current wave passes. Guidance is warming up to the fact the MJO will weaken and not quite make it into the phases that are non-Pacific. More feedback likely means more MJO into the Pacific in the longer run as it has been in the big Ocean for quite some time and doesn't want to leave.

[Ntxw]

Longpaddock has 30 day SOI at -6.72 with another consistent chunk of daily negatives. Looks like -8 or lower may be in the near future. It has fallen very hard in the span of just a week from positive to modestly negative.