Texas Winter 2013-2014

[TheProfessor]

I can't believe I haven't even reached .75" of precipitation so far this year.

[cigtyme]

I bought a little junky rain gauge and thermometer the week of the superbowl. It made it to 5" yesterday when I dumped it!!

[Portastorm]

Here's a 60hr precip graphic from the 12Z GFS valid next Wednesday morning. It shows only about 0.25" of precip along the Texas coast prior to Wednesday morning. Nothing after Wednesday. The precip occurs on Tuesday ahead of the cold front. That's not too much.

How come this is so much different from what Porta posted earlier from the NWS' Weather Prediction Center? Are they not buying the GFS?

The folks at the WPC national desk use a variety/blend of models and ensembles. What wxman57 showed was just one model, a particular run of that model.

[gboudx]

I bought a little junky rain gauge and thermometer the week of the superbowl. It made it to 5" yesterday when I dumped it!!

Most of us would stab someone for that kind of rain gauge performance. I dumped mine yesterday too, but that was to get leaves out of it.

[wxman57]

How come this is so much different from what Porta posted earlier from the NWS' Weather Prediction Center? Are they not buying the GFS?

For one thing, the graphic I posted shows the GFS-predicted rainfall from 6pm Monday to 6am Wednesday. The graphic portastorm posted is a forecast for the period from today through Wednesday morning.

[wxman57]

The 12Z Euro is a bit slower with next Wednesday's cold front, but not too much. Coldest day for NE TX to central TX is Thursday with lows in the 37-39 range and highs in the mid 50s in the Dallas area as well as Houston (the highs in the mid 50s). Shoot, another hot day where I'll have to use my AC.

[Ntxw]

Looking at the ENS and Cfsv2 it does look like the worst of the Arctic intrusions is behind us with the early March outbreak. Aleutian low that delivered the pattern is going to transition into a Bering strait low which isn't as ideal. West coast ridging will keep NW flow which keeps things below average to average. Dependent on disturbances from the subtropical jet being able to drag the eastern trough back is what we look for if you want more cold. Eventually the guidance then returns the ridging into the NE Pacific that pokes into Alaska. What kind of cold air is left in Canada will determine what kind cold snap we endure towards the equinox which we often see early spring as a result of the ridge.

[ravyrn]

The 12Z Euro is a bit slower with next Wednesday's cold front, but not too much. Coldest day for NE TX to central TX is Thursday with lows in the 37-39 range and highs in the mid 50s in the Dallas area as well as Houston (the highs in the mid 50s). Shoot, another hot day where I'll have to use my AC.

LOL @ the Avatar! The Heatmiser is slowly making his comeback I hope DFW manages to squeeze a few more freezes in so they can move up the total freeze list.

[Tireman4]

The 12Z Euro is a bit slower with next Wednesday's cold front, but not too much. Coldest day for NE TX to central TX is Thursday with lows in the 37-39 range and highs in the mid 50s in the Dallas area as well as Houston (the highs in the mid 50s). Shoot, another hot day where I'll have to use my AC.

Uhh oh. We must fight off the Heat Miser. We cannot let him come back. Fight. Fight. Fight...

[aggiecutter]

In reply to a Weather Channel report that winter has been cancelled, the Minister of Propaganda for the Portastorm Weather Center had this reply:

[Portastorm]

Yes that is true ... plus the PWC spots the Mother of All Winter Storms on the 24,000 hour GFS!

[hriverajr]

Hmm mother of all storms 2.73 years from now.. interesting.. hahah

[Texas Snowman]

Yeah, even Wxman57 can't stop that one!

[Texas Snowman]

And that's the old Heat Miser version of Wxman57, not the new and improved Beta version!

[Texas Snowman]

Not as bad as last weekend, but certainly not a spring picnic kind of a day.

Raining lightly, brisk north wind, and 43 degrees right now in D-Town.

[Ntxw]

The heat miser is trying to make a comeback. We must fend him off! We need cold and snow and we need it NOW!

[dhweather]

:uarrow:

Yes that is true ... plus the PWC spots the Mother of All Winter Storms on the 24,000 hour GFS!

OUTSTANDING!

[Portastorm]

Picked up .31 inches of rain so far today. Not too bad. Hoping for more shortly.

[ravyrn]

Hmm mother of all storms 2.73 years from now.. interesting.. hahah

December 2, 2016. I like his odds. I'm marking this day in my calendar.

PS: Porta check PM

[dhweather]

Picked up .31 inches of rain so far today. Not too bad. Hoping for more shortly.

Good for you guys, liquid gold is always welcomed!


Sadly, we got 0.01 out of yesterdays system.