ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Hurricaneman]

El Nino is definitely on the way, but what strength will it be. My guess will have anomalies between 1.3 to 2.0 as of now

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

Up very slightly from -6.0 on March 7 to -5.9 on March 8.

20140207,20140308,-5.9

[dexterlabio]

GFS is showing another tropical storm forming in the Western Pacific a week from now. I'm not sure if this can be directly linked to ENSO, though...but I think the early tropical development in this region could mean that the tropical Pacific is starting to ripe up as ENSO turns positive (warmer).


2009 did not feature an early typhoon in the Western Pacific until first week of May.

[cycloneye]

So maybe a brief pause on warming?

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 34 min
MJO event forcing anomalous westerly flow o/Andes, tanking atmos. angular momentum. Atm to move back to La Nina pttrn

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 44 min
The current westerly wind burst looks to be coming to an end, for now. There were westerlies o/ eq for nearly 1 month

[Ntxw]

Sounds about right, a few days ago I mentioned the MJO was going to weaken as it begins to leave the Pacific. Signs are it will be back there very soon. As for now down-welling of phase of the MJO is done, what goes down must come up. Time to see that warm pool arise.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 3/10/14 weekly update

Nino 3.4 is up to -0.4C from -0.6C that was last Monday.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Here's a graphic showing the reduction in westerly winds along the equator. As Mike Ventrice mentioned, with the AAM going into a low state, we should expect a reprieve in warming and a return towards a more La Nina-like atmosphere.

This should be temporary, but Murphy's law is repeating in the back of my head given the close calls we've seen the past few years.

[cycloneye]

The latest update of 30 day SOI continues to go down,now at -6.3.

20140208,20140309,-6.3

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[blp]

Good discussion guys. The comment by Eric Blake about less troughs in this pattern is interesting and considering how east coast troughs have dominated in recent years. The pendulum eventually swings back. Even with the below average instability that has persisted for several years, the persistent troughs have been a huge saving grace for the highly populated areas(except for Sandy of course) and hints at a change in this pattern coupled with the higher SST's would certainly be interesting.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Eh, this isn't necessarily true, and it's easy to get confused with because I used to think the same until Levi32 (runs TropicalTidbits) explained it to me. I wish I could find the post. In general though, warm ocean temperatures warm the air above it. Because warm air is less dense, it rises and feedbacks with lower pressures at the surface. This makes sense if you think about a) the tropical Atlantic during active hurricane seasons and b) the subtropical Atlantic in 2012 (if warm water created high pressure, there would be no storms).

Here's a tweet from Eric Blake this morning hinting at the western Atlantic may be the sweet spot this year:

@TropicalTidbits 5h
@EricBlake12 Wonder how warm west Atl. waters can persist. Similar years w/ El Nino still had several home-brew storms, especially early.

@EricBlake12 5h
@TropicalTidbits Strong ridge east weaker ridge west usually promotes that pattern. Not many fronts in W Atlc either...

Is this not how the PDO and AMO works? It's not just looking at the immediate surface. There is always higher and lower pressures in the atmosphere and from everything I've gathered warmer waters (relative to the reverse cooler waters) sets up ridges and troughs, thus higher and lower pressures. During the +AMO you see persistent ridges in warmer waters relative to normal in the far north Atlantic and lower pressures off the east coast (thus cooler waters) and lots of cyclone activity. The -AMO is the precise opposite. Cooler waters up north (relative to the warmer waters down south) promotes lower pressures in the far north Atlantic and high pressures to the south off the east coast.

And this is not looking at any individual period. You can always have systems on a small scale relative to everything else or MJO impulses lowering pressures below the ridges, but the theme is overall it tends to favor higher pressures as a whole in the season. Perhaps that is what the ECMWF has been portraying but we just don't like seeing it.

Just thinking here, but the issue with PDO might be a difference in basins. Sure, using an anomaly map, it indicates both the northeastern Pacific (-PDO) and Atlantic are above-average. But when looking at specific temperatures, Pacific waters are only 7-14C while Atlantic waters are 23-29C. 7-14C is cold; cold water promotes high pressure. Meanwhile, the warmer Atlantic waters promote higher air temperatures which promotes storms.

[TheStormExpert]

Does anyone have the SST Anomalies for 2004? Cycloneye's graphic only goes back to 2005.

[blp]

Does anyone have the SST Anomalies for 2004? Cycloneye's graphic only goes back to 2005.

Try below site and scroll to the bottom.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at the conflicting signals this may end up being an El Nino Modoki or even a warm neutral instead of what I thought the other day with a strong El Nino which could with the warm anomalies on the US east coast, GOM and Caribbean be a season more like 2004 or a lesser version of 2005 but who knows whats going to happen even a week from now never mind the hurricane season

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricaneman]

The closest analog as far as anomalies is 1997 as far as the atlantic is concerned and even to the date seems to match 1997 in the ENSO but the main difference that I see is less in the way of westerlies to upwell those + anomalies but it could be temporary or could be one of those conflicting signals that needs to be watched as if the westerlies aren't as strong in the ENSO regions it could lead to less upwelling and would lead to less shear in the atlantic and possibly a really bad hurricane season with those + anomalies near land

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Kingarabian]

Here's a graphic showing the reduction in westerly winds along the equator. As Mike Ventrice mentioned, with the AAM going into a low state, we should expect a reprieve in warming and a return towards a more La Nina-like atmosphere.

This should be temporary, but Murphy's law is repeating in the back of my head given the close calls we've seen the past few years.

Close calls yes, but I don't think we had a massive sub-surface pool like this one, and modest MJO feedback in the past 2 years.

[Ntxw]

Why is everyone keep throwing around 2004? As of right now I see very little to resemble that year. We are not in a +PDO mode, nor peak of AMO. Just like last year 2005 was thrown around a lot. There is very little supportive evidence the atmosphere is in a state it was during the early 2000s. More like late 50s/60s/70s. We've had strings of neutrals and la ninas that have sapped the tropics of heat/moisture (reference instability) Unlike the early 2000s when things were very different.

[Kingarabian]

Why is everyone keep throwing around 2004? As of right now I see very little to resemble that year. We are not in a +PDO mode, nor peak of AMO. Just like last year 2005 was thrown around a lot. There is very little supportive evidence the atmosphere is in a state it was during the early 2000s. More like late 50s/60s/70s. We've had strings of neutrals and la ninas that have sapped the tropics of heat/moisture (reference instability) Unlike the early 2000s when things were very different.

Atlantic Instability is borderline pathetic in the time being.

[cycloneye]

Australian update of 3/11/14

Warming tropical Pacific increases chance of El Niño for winter

Issued on Tuesday 11 March 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral – neither El Niño nor La Niña. However, international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that warming of the tropical Pacific is likely in the coming months, with most models showing temperatures approaching or exceeding El Niño thresholds during the austral winter.

Recent observations indicate that warming of the tropical Pacific is occurring. The tropical Pacific Ocean sub-surface has warmed substantially over the past few weeks, which is likely to result in a warming of the sea surface in the coming months. A recent burst of westerly winds over the far western Pacific is the strongest seen since at least 2009 – the last time an El Niño developed

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[ninel conde]

Why is everyone keep throwing around 2004? As of right now I see very little to resemble that year. We are not in a +PDO mode, nor peak of AMO. Just like last year 2005 was thrown around a lot. There is very little supportive evidence the atmosphere is in a state it was during the early 2000s. More like late 50s/60s/70s. We've had strings of neutrals and la ninas that have sapped the tropics of heat/moisture (reference instability) Unlike the early 2000s when things were very different.

Atlantic Instability is borderline pathetic in the time being.

i think its past pathetic at this time. not sure it could be any more stable. im not sure it even matters if there is an el nino or not will all other factors so negative.

[ninel conde]

Why is everyone keep throwing around 2004? As of right now I see very little to resemble that year. We are not in a +PDO mode, nor peak of AMO. Just like last year 2005 was thrown around a lot. There is very little supportive evidence the atmosphere is in a state it was during the early 2000s. More like late 50s/60s/70s. We've had strings of neutrals and la ninas that have sapped the tropics of heat/moisture (reference instability) Unlike the early 2000s when things were very different.

Atlantic Instability is borderline pathetic in the time being.

i think its past pathetic at this time. not sure it could be any more stable. im not sure it even matters if there is an el nino or not will all other factors so negative.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... t_THDV.gif