Expert forecasts for 2014 N Atl Hurricane season

[cycloneye]

Yikes is the word that fits with the March update for July,August and September of MSLP by ECMWF.

[ninel conde]

thats about as dead as it can get. 3/1/0 now a realistic prediction.

[Alyono]

it would be nice if we don't see troll posts like 3/1/0

Even 1983, the ultimate shear year had 4/3/1

and NHC names far more liberally than they did in 1983. 1997 had 8 storms

[CaliforniaResident]

it would be nice if we don't see troll posts like 3/1/0

Even 1983, the ultimate shear year had 4/3/1

and NHC names far more liberally than they did in 1983. 1997 had 8 storms

A troll post would be 0/0/0. I am going to go with 14/2/0 though. Tropical storms will form regularly but only 2 will make their way to hurricane status and no majors.

[Hurricane Jed]

Those are the same stats for 2013. Incredibly unlikely that happens again.

[CaliforniaResident]

:uarrow: Those are the same stats for 2013. Incredibly unlikely that happens again.

And THAT is a troll post

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,let's knock off the trolling and get back to discuss about the topic of this thread.

[Hurricane Jed]

I was just being realistic. There have never been back to back seasons in the Atlantic with the same stats, i.e. 9/4/2 and so forth. Its come close, 1888-1889 for example, but never exact. Anywho, Fun fact: List 6 this year, has never had less than 12 storms, named or unnamed, and has always had at least 4 hurricanes in each use. Be interesting to see if that streak continues.

[Ntxw]

I'm not interested as much in the name game. Nobody is going to say last year was a normal season based on the number of names. ACE is where I like it . There have been back to back years with exceptionally low ACE (examples are 1982, 1983 and 1993, 1994) and in both of these cases the second year was even quieter than the first. 1972, 1973<- this one being in the cold PDO era was another couplet. However statistically speaking this should not be the case for 2014 as it would take a series of "perfect" unfavorable conditions to achieve. A stronger Nino if one occurs would increase the odds. PDO would likely have to remain positive and higher values while the -AMO reading would need to persist as well. But that's not to say it hasn't happened before.

[Hurricane Jed]

Would 1986-87 be another example?

[Ntxw]

Would 1986-87 be another example?

Ah yes, I missed that one good catch. Another couplet in which the second was quieter than the first. But that too was a couple of moderate to strong El Ninos.

[TheStormExpert]

Yikes is the word that fits with the March update for July,August and September of MSLP by ECMWF.

http://oi62.tinypic.com/2iw9gtk.jpg

Also the E. Pacific hurricane season would be shut down as well if the ECMWF's (European Model) predictions panned out. Right?

[ninel conde]

I'm not interested as much in the name game. Nobody is going to say last year was a normal season based on the number of names. ACE is where I like it . There have been back to back years with exceptionally low ACE (examples are 1982, 1983 and 1993, 1994) and in both of these cases the second year was even quieter than the first. 1972, 1973<- this one being in the cold PDO era was another couplet. However statistically speaking this should not be the case for 2014 as it would take a series of "perfect" unfavorable conditions to achieve. A stronger Nino if one occurs would increase the odds. PDO would likely have to remain positive and higher values while the -AMO reading would need to persist as well. But that's not to say it hasn't happened before.

this has all the signs of 82/83.

[ninel conde]

Yikes is the word that fits with the March update for July,August and September of MSLP by ECMWF.

http://oi62.tinypic.com/2iw9gtk.jpg

Also the E. Pacific hurricane season would be shut down as well if the ECMWF's (European Model) predictions panned out. Right?

not at all. pressures are very low in the east pac on the euro and precipitation high. my guess is there will be an explosion of convection in the east pac which will exacerbate the atlantic wind shear. my guess would be very active east pac with many strong westward moving storms.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Most of the top analog El Ninos only lasted 6-12 months, which of course is typical for these kind of events. That being said, this would suggest a quick return to Neutral or even La Nina by next season, which would suggest a busy season. Most years succeeding our current analogs were very active (1956, 1964, 1995, 2010, etc.) anyways. I don't know the specifics behind it, but maybe an El Nino is what we need to get global tropical cyclone activity back on track.

What's that saying? It has to get worse before it gets better.

[wxman57]

March Euro is predicting ACE in the low 60s this season. Activity about 70% of normal.

[Ntxw]

Most of the top analog El Ninos only lasted 6-12 months, which of course is typical for these kind of events. That being said, this would suggest a quick return to Neutral or even La Nina by next season, which would suggest a busy season. Most years succeeding our current analogs were very active (1956, 1964, 1995, 2010, etc.) anyways. I don't know the specifics behind it, but maybe an El Nino is what we need to get global tropical cyclone activity back on track.

What's that saying? It has to get worse before it gets better.

I can't agree more with this post. Regardless of what happens this season, as a sacrificial lamb, it could open the doors to a very big season next year. As you said often big El Nino's are flipped to big La Ninas and these are some of the top ACE producers when you go from one extreme to another. An El Nino this year would definitely shake up the stagnant tropical regime for next year, if we don't get one it's likely nothing will change.

[stephen23]

I'm not interested as much in the name game. Nobody is going to say last year was a normal season based on the number of names. ACE is where I like it . There have been back to back years with exceptionally low ACE (examples are 1982, 1983 and 1993, 1994) and in both of these cases the second year was even quieter than the first. 1972, 1973<- this one being in the cold PDO era was another couplet. However statistically speaking this should not be the case for 2014 as it would take a series of "perfect" unfavorable conditions to achieve. A stronger Nino if one occurs would increase the odds. PDO would likely have to remain positive and higher values while the -AMO reading would need to persist as well. But that's not to say it hasn't happened before.

this has all the signs of 82/83.

I'm not sure how I see where this has all the signs of 82/82. 82/83 as well as 1994 were all in the AMO- phase that we have not been in since 1995 and we are just now getting to the peak years of the current AMO+ phase. I know that the AMO value is still negative right now but I believe it will bounce back very soon. There has been plenty of years in the current AMO+ phase that started off negative but ended up positive by hurricane season. examples are 1995, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2009, 2012. The only time it didn't bounce back was 1996 which was at the very beginning of the current phase. Also, there has never been back to back years with exceptionally low ACE during the two AMO+ phases since 1950. All back to back years with exceptionally low ACE values were in the AMO- era between 1961 to 1995. There have been some years in AMO+ era with two near normal ACE number in a row. Examples 1952/1953/1954, 1959/1960, 2006/2007, 2001/2002. The only back to back years with below normal ACE and then near normal ACE in the PDO+ years was 1956/1957. If history repeats itself I think we may be in for a surprise this year.

[Ntxw]

I'm not sure how I see where this has all the signs of 82/82. 82/83 as well as 1994 were all in the AMO- phase that we have not been in since 1995 and we are just now getting to the peak years of the current AMO+ phase. I know that the AMO value is still negative right now but I believe it will bounce back very soon. There has been plenty of years in the current AMO+ phase that started off negative but ended up positive by hurricane season. examples are 1995, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2009, 2012. The only time it didn't bounce back was 1996 which was at the very beginning of the current phase. Also, there has never been back to back years with exceptionally low ACE during the two AMO+ phases since 1950. All back to back years with exceptionally low ACE values were in the AMO- era between 1961 to 1995. There have been some years in AMO+ era with two near normal ACE number in a row. Examples 1952/1953/1954, 1959/1960, 2006/2007, 2001/2002. The only back to back years with below normal ACE and then near normal ACE in the PDO+ years was 1956/1957. If history repeats itself I think we may be in for a surprise this year.

There's always a first for everything. I don't think anybody would've believed we could get a sub 40 ACE year in the +AMO period as we did last year unless there was a screaming El Nino like 1997.

[Hurricane Jed]

I'm not interested as much in the name game. Nobody is going to say last year was a normal season based on the number of names. ACE is where I like it . There have been back to back years with exceptionally low ACE (examples are 1982, 1983 and 1993, 1994) and in both of these cases the second year was even quieter than the first. 1972, 1973<- this one being in the cold PDO era was another couplet. However statistically speaking this should not be the case for 2014 as it would take a series of "perfect" unfavorable conditions to achieve. A stronger Nino if one occurs would increase the odds. PDO would likely have to remain positive and higher values while the -AMO reading would need to persist as well. But that's not to say it hasn't happened before.

Well we'll see if 2014 has a lower ACE value than 2013. 35 is the number to beat. Also List 6, the lowest ACE value it had was 67 back in 02 and I think 2014 will break that.