ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

All ENSO regions are warming significantly, except for 1+2 which is currently going down.

In due time it will cave. There is a little patch of cold water far far to the east just below the surface that will get pushed out, it will be replaced by the surging warm pool. ENSO 1+2 often goes on wild swings between warm and cold too much quicker than other regions. Waters here are very shallow.

[dexterlabio]

^Where did you see the graphic for Nino 1+2? I think the effects of the huge warm pool at the subsurface will be felt later on and 3.4 gets the warming first.


But if Nino 1+2 doesn't get as much warming as the other regions, it would be interesting. People who likes to see Modoki would be happy.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

^Where did you see the graphic for Nino 1+2? I think the effects of the huge warm pool at the subsurface will be felt later on and 3.4 gets the warming first.


But if Nino 1+2 doesn't get as much warming as the other regions, it would be interesting. People who likes to see Modoki would be happy.

Well, the warm pool has not reached there yet. The models LOOK forward to a Moderate Eastern Equatorial El Nino. ECMWF sees possibly a slightly weaker version of 1997. I saw it on page 1 of this topic and in Levi Cowan's website.

[stephen23]

All ENSO regions are warming significantly, except for 1+2 which is currently going down.

In due time it will cave. There is a little patch of cold water far far to the east just below the surface that will get pushed out, it will be replaced by the surging warm pool. ENSO 1+2 often goes on wild swings between warm and cold too much quicker than other regions. Waters here are very shallow.

Maybe you can help me. I am still trying to figure out how La Nina and El Nino affect the amount of named storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic. Below is a couple of graphs I put together. The first graph is the number of named storms for every year since 1950. The second graph is the number of named hurricanes since 1950. To my eye I see no real pattern on the ENSO affect on the amount of storms. There are years that have more named storms then the following or previous Nina year



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I do see a noticeable increase in the amount of named storms from the end of the first phase of +AMO then a sharp decrease in number of storms going into -PDO. I believe the first phase ended around 1961 or so and stayed in a negative phase from 1962+or- a year until 1995 where we entered the second AMO+ phase on the graphs and a noticeable increase in named storms and hurricanes was seen again. Below is a graph I put together for the AMO values each year since 1950. I took the values during hurricane season +or- one month. So the values are from May thru Nov.



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The one thing that I noticed right off hand is that since we entered our last +AMO phase we have been on a pattern to have never had two years in a row with decreasing storm count numbers. We still seem to be on the rise as we should just be hitting the peak of +AMO during the next few years. Does this mean a more active year then last year? If the pattern continues the way it has since 1995 then that would be right but that seems unlikely after last year. Lol

I'm not sure, but one other thing that may need to be considered is if we end up PDO+ and AMO+ it seems there has been an increase named storms and hurricanes during that phase. With the mean average being 10/6/2 that has increased to 14/7/4 for years following the PDO+ and AMO+ phase. Those years being 1953,1954,1957,1958,1995,1996,1997,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007. The scary thing about that is if you look at those years there has been a U.S. landfall 92% of the time with the only year that didn't have a U.S. landfall as 2006. Even if we end up going in to El Nino phase the storm count is still slightly above mean average in those years at 11/5/3. Those years being 1953, 1957, 1997, 2004. During those years there has been a U.S. landfall 100% of the time with a major landfall 75% of the time. I didn't think to much about it until I was looking at the paper on tropical tidbits and noticed where he was saying the greatest risk area was for this season. 6 of the total years above had hurricanes hitting both the East Coast and GOM in the same year.

[Ntxw]

Maybe you can help me. I am still trying to figure out how La Nina and El Nino affect the amount of named storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic. Below is a couple of graphs I put together. The first graph is the number of named storms for every year since 1950. The second graph is the number of named hurricanes since 1950. To my eye I see no real pattern on the ENSO affect on the amount of storms. There are years that have more named storms then the following or previous Nina year

I am not a proponent to numbers of named storms. My personal opinion is too much volatility due to the nature of weaker systems getting names and such. My favorite tool to use is ACE. Perhaps you could try using that value as it is a little less volatile and may help in your stats. You will likely see a good deal of patterns and correlation using this tool.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

^Where did you see the graphic for Nino 1+2? I think the effects of the huge warm pool at the subsurface will be felt later on and 3.4 gets the warming first.

But if Nino 1+2 doesn't get as much warming as the other regions, it would be interesting. People who likes to see Modoki would be happy.

Here you go, working it's way from west to east under the surface.

Daily SOI had a reading today of -26, 30 day fell to near -8.2 on longpaddock. 90 Day SOI will soon get effected as it is very near the point of going below 0, it's about to lose some big SOI+ early in the period.

[cycloneye]

Moderate to Strong El Nino is what the March update by ECMWF forecasts.

[dexterlabio]

http://i57.tinypic.com/34q4dqu.gif

Here you go, working it's way from west to east under the surface.

Daily SOI had a reading today of -26, 30 day fell to near -8.2 on longpaddock. 90 Day SOI will soon get effected as it is very near the point of going below 0, it's about to lose some big SOI+ early in the period.

Thanks for posting the graphic. Would be interesting if SOI will tank even further in the coming days. The clear signs of El Nino has shown up earlier this year compared to 2009.

[Alyono]

EC says strong el niño every year, however. Not sure how much stock to take in its prediction

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,todays update shows even more warm sub-surface.

[cycloneye]

30 day SOI continues to go down,now almost to the -8 threshold of El Nino.

20140213,20140314,-7.9

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[xtyphooncyclonex]

IMO, I'd go with a moderate Eastern Equatorial this year, although, a Modoki is also possible. Sea surface anomalies are significantly warming which would make an active Pacific typhoon and Pacific hurricane season this coming season...and possibly the South Pacific cyclone season too. Hope all storms will be fishies.

[cycloneye]

ESPI continues to go up in positive +49

[Ntxw]

Good animation to see evolution of SST's.

[CaliforniaResident]

Would a Modoki still have the same affect on California this fall and winter as a regular El Nino?

[Ntxw]

Would a Modoki still have the same affect on California this fall and winter as a regular El Nino?

A modoki you would see something like 2009. CP's (modoki) are weaker than EP El Nino. Not overly wet as in a traditional El Nino and not as cool compared to traditional El Nino. EP Nino's focus cold and wet over the southwest while modoki's the south-central and SE US. Both do feature a subtropical jet that tends to hit California.

[CaliforniaResident]

Would a Modoki still have the same affect on California this fall and winter as a regular El Nino?

A modoki you would see something like 2009. CP's (modoki) are weaker than EP El Nino. Not overly wet as in a traditional El Nino and not as cool compared to traditional El Nino. EP Nino's focus cold and wet over the southwest while modoki's the south-central and SE US. Both do feature a subtropical jet that tends to hit California.

So it would also be likely to end our drought situation then?

[Ntxw]

So it would also be likely to end our drought situation then?

Temporarily possibly for a few months or seasons. The California drought is more related to the gulf of Alaska warm pool and until that goes away if the subtropical jet lets up it will go back to drought.

[cycloneye]

ESPI continues to go up in positive +49

Wow,since I posted that +49 it went up to +50

[Ntxw]

Sub-surface continues to expand and 5C+ area is getting larger. May be some 6C in there while the Nino 3 region is beginning to see near 2C+ surface. 1C+ in the west has also made it to the surface.



2009 had 6C at it's peak down there in November and December.

[wxman57]

EC says strong el niño every year, however. Not sure how much stock to take in its prediction

Last March the EC was forecasting neutral to La Nina for the summer. Australia BoM forecasting Neutral heading to La Nina by September/October. Plenty of warm sub-surface water in the Pacific.