Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST THU MAR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WHILE
DISSIPATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC...SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL ERODE...INDUCING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RETURN TO A GENERAL DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT WILL BECOME FROM THE NORTHEAST
LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAINS
OBSCURATION ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TJPS AND TJMZ UNTIL
13/21Z. AFTER THAT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
SURFACE TO 10K FEET...BECOMING FROM THE WEST AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS BETWEEN 2-3 FEET EXPECTED THRU SAT MORNING THEN
BEGIN TO BUILD SAT AFTERNOON IN LARGE NORTH SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 85 73 83 / 0 0 0 20
STT 74 84 75 85 / 10 10 0 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
955 PM AST THU MAR 13 2014

.UPDATE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT...AND IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL AND THEN DISSIPATE BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...WINDS MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL PREVAIL AS
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...
RESULTING IN DRIER AIR AND WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR and VI today and Saturday as a weak front lingers nearby.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST FRI MAR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CDFNT TO THE WEST OF 60W EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG 20N
SAT THEN DISSIPATE BY MON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BUILD OVR THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AS
PREFRONTAL TROUGH/SHEARLINE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL FOCUS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON THE SOUTH COAST TODAY. CDFNT MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE AREA ON SAT STALLING ALONG 20N WITH BEST
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETTING UP BETWEEN 19N AND 20N. SHOWERS
EXPECTED AGAIN MAINLY ON THE SOUTH COAST SAT DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.
CDFNT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY SUN AND DISSIPATE BY MON IF
NOT SOONER.

TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUN LEADING TO GRADUAL
DRYING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS QUICKLY MON THRU TUE LEADING
TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SHARP DRYING. RED FLAG CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY ON THE SOUTH COAST MON-TUE AS WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN
IN RESPONSE TO STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH OVR THE ECNTRL ATLC.
EVEN AS RIDGE WEAKENS LATER IN THE WEEK...THE LOCAL AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC KEEPING
CONDITIONS VERY WITH VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER NOT ONLY ON THE SOUTH
COAST BUT ALSO ON THE NORTH COAST WHERE FUELS HAVE CURED.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA AT TIMES THRU TONITE WI CHC OF MVFR IN THE
SHRA...OTHW VFR. SCT SHRA OVR S/SW PR ON SAT AFT WI SOME OBSCD MTNS.
WIND BLO FL100 E-NE 5-15 KT THRU SAT.


&&

.MARINE...LOCAL AREA UNDER A COL THIS MORNING YIELDING LIGHT WINDS
AND NEAR FLAT SEAS. NNW SWELLS EXPECTED TO BUILD RAPIDLY FRI NIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8 FT SAT ACCORDING TO LATEST WW3. SCA MAY
BECOME NECESSARY FOR AMZ710.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DESPITE GOOD RAINS SO FAR THIS MONTH AT CABO ROJO
AND GUANICA WITH 0.82 AND 1.41 INCHES RESPECTIVELY...SIG LONG TERM
RAINFALL DEFICITS REMAIN AT THESE TWO STATIONS PER LATEST KBDI
READINGS NEAR 600. THE LATEST ERC AND KBDI INDICES STILL REMAIN
ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILES USING THE CLIMATOLOGY AVAILABLE SINCE
2004. THE OVERALL VEGETATIVE HEALTH ACROSS THE SOUTH REMAINS POOR
AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO BURNING WITH HUGE AMOUNTS OF FUEL LOADING BASED
ON RECENT MODIS NDVI IMAGERY. FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY MON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND TIGHT PRES GRADIENT.



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 73 / 0 10 20 20
STT 83 76 84 76 / 0 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

Nice sunrise in San Juan.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST FRI MAR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL
REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WHILE DISSIPATES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC...SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
AS THIS HAPPENS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO A
GENERAL DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY FROM THE EAST DURING THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL BECOME FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE TO EAST SOUTHEAST FROM THE SURFACE TO 5K FEET...
BECOMING FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM 5-20K FEET AND
FROM THE WEST AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS EXPECTED TO BUILD
RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 7 FEET ON SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO NOON AST
SUNDAY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 73 83 / 10 20 20 20
STT 74 84 74 85 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

Spectacular image of a blue sky and children flying kites at El Morro fortress in San Juan.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1003 PM AST FRI MAR 14 2014

.UPDATE...MOST AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DISSIPATED AROUND 700 PM. SATELLITE
AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD...AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH MINIMAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL RELATIVELY QUIET THE REST
OF TONIGHT THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NORTH COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES
MAY RECEIVE A FEW SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY BUT IN GENERAL...MOST OF
THE ISLAND SHOULD REMAIN SHOWER-FREE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING
ON SATURDAY. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED IN THE SAME AREAS. NO CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR and VI today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
405 AM AST SAT MAR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH OF 20N WILL BECOME STATIONARY
LATER TODAY THEN BECOME DIFFUSE SUN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BUILD OVR THE REGION TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH
TO BE ADVECTED SWD TODAY ON NORTHEAST WINDS. THIS TO YIELD SCT TO
POSSIBLY NMRS SHOWERS ON THE SOUTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON. CAN`T
EVEN RULE OUT A TSTM OR TWO SINCE 15/00Z JSJ RAOB INDICATED EQ
LEVEL TEMPS NEAR -24C. WILL ADD ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH
COAST BASED ON 850-700 MB LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 5.3C/KM ALTHOUGH
LAPSE RATES ON MODEL PROGS DO NOT APPEAR STEEP ENOUGH.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUN
WITH A SLIGHT DRYING TREND BUT REMNANT MOISTURE FROM DISSIPATING
FRONTAL ZONE STILL WARRANTS KEEPING SCT POPS BUT ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT MORE WWD AS STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY.

SIGNIFICANT DRYING THEN EXPECTED MON AS AREA BECOME UNDER STRONG
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REACHES MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE TUE
LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION
GREATLY SUPPRESSING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. RIDGE WEAKENS WED
BUT AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT SIDE OF
CNTRL ATLC TROUGH. OVERALL...VERY DRY WEEK APPEARS IN STORE FOR
THE REGION BEGINNING MON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE WX
THREAT ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH TUE AND THU LOOKING LIKE THE BEST
DAYS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA AND
TAF SITE DURING THE FCST PRD. FEW LGT PASSING -SHRA MAINLY OVR
COASTAL WATERS EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND NRN LEEWARDS BTW
15/10Z-15/13Z. MAINLY ISOLD AFTN CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WRN
AND SW PR PR BTWN 13/18-22Z. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS DUE
TO PASSING SHRA AND SCT-BKN LOW CLDS BTW FL020-FL030 MAINLY AT OR NR
TJMZ...TJPS. LGT E-NE WINDS AT 5-15 KT BLO FL150...BCMG N-NW AND
BACKING W/HT ABOVE WITH CAVOK.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 1-3 FT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT NNW SWELLS
EXPECTED TO BUILD RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT
TONIGHT. SWELLS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE RAPIDLY ON SUN. SCA IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR AMZ710.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 84 75 / 20 20 20 0
STT 77 76 77 77 / 20 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
231 PM AST SAT MAR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OVER...AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA THE REST OF
THE DAY. REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS IN THE MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO IN THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED
ACROSS WEST AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS WERE THE
RESULT OF LOCAL EFFECTS...AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG COASTAL AREAS
WITH A FRESH NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND WINDWARD AREAS LATE
TONIGHT. A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
THEN PREVAIL AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
WITH A DRYING TREND AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THEREFORE SUNDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS TO BE MOSTLY ISOLATED AND MAINLY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
WITH MOSTLY STREAMER LIKE CONVECTION WHICH MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED
BY LOCAL EFFECTS IN SOME AREAS. IN FACT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGE WEAKENS WEDNESDAY...
BUT LOCAL ISLANDS WILL REMAIN UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT SIDE
OF CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH. THEREFORE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
APPEAR IN STORE FOR THE REGION BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
DURING THE FCST PRD. ISOLD AFTN CONVECTION ACROSS WRN AND SW PR
BTWN 13/18-22Z. POSS BRIEF MVFR CONDS DUE TO PASSING
SHRA...VCTS...AND BKN LOW CLDS MAINLY AT OR NR TJMZ...TJPS. WINDS
AT 5-15 KT MAINLY FROM THE E-NE FROM SFC UP TO 15 K FT...BCMG N-NW
AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL INVADE THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 7 FEET TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THESE SWELLS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 75 85 / 20 20 20 20
STT 74 83 74 83 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
758 PM AST SAT MAR 15 2014

.UPDATE...MORE THAN EXPECTED SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRED OVER THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL TODAY AND THE SHOWERS DRIFTED SOUTH OVER THE
COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES FROM SANTA ISABELA WEST WHILE DISSIPATING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DISSIPATING AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE
ISLAND BY 10 PM AST. A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE STALLING FRONTAL BAND
TO THE NORTH WERE NOTED JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT THEIR
PROGRESS IS SLOW. SIMILAR SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED...BUT WITH A LITTLE LESS RAIN AND THE
SHOWERS SHOULD FORM AND DRIFT A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY. GRIDS WERE
REVISED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNDAY`S...MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE GFS SOUNDING...
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT EXPECT THAT IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS WET AS THE
NAM5 SHOWS IT. SHOWERS ON THE NORTH COAST...IF ANY...WILL COME IN
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR and VI today but for the most part good weather will prevail.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST SUN MAR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION MON THRU
TUE THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS FEED INTO
CNTRL ATLC TROF. DEEP POLAR TROUGH TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE WRN
ATLC EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION MOVED ACROSS THE AREA
LATE YESTERDAY WITH MID-LVEL DRYING NOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS TO LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TODAY SOMEWHAT BUT NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESS IT. WINDS
SHIFT MORE EASTERLY WITH CONVECTION CLUSTERING MORE OVR YAUCO TO
SAN GERMAN.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION CURRENTLY OVR THE FL STRAITS PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ACT
TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVR THE WATERS AND ERN PR. TROF AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z MON WITH RAPIDLY DRYING
CONDITIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY REACHING MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE TUE
WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP DRYING. WINDS ALSO
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RESULTING IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTH. NORTH COAST OF PR AND SAINT CROIX WILL ALSO HAVE VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER. REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS PRETTY DRY AS AREA REMAIN
UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT SIDE OF DEEP TROUGH OVR THE CNTRL
ATLC. WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT WILL
REMAIN STILL BREEZY WITH HIGH FIRE DANGER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WRN AND SW PR
BTWN 16/18-16/24Z MAY AFFECT AT LEAST THE VICINITY OF TJPS AND TJMZ
WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT TJMZ. EASTERLY WINDS
AT 5-10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 10-15KTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 16/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...WW3 UNDERESTIMATED THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SWELL EVENT
YESTERDAY WITH BUOY 41043 STILL INDICATING SEAS 2 FT HIGHER THAN
WW3. BUOY 41053 INDICATING SEAS AT 7FT AT 12 SECS. SWELLS WILL
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TODAY AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 85 74 / 10 20 20 0
STT 84 75 85 75 / 10 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST SUN MAR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK...REACHING ITS MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. RIDGE ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO ERODE...WITH THE LOCAL
ISLANDS REMAINING UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT SIDE OF CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
IN THE MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WEST PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. SO FAR...
JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DETECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS A FEW STREAMERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AND THE USVI. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG
COASTAL AREAS WITH A FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW.

SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WATERS AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER..ITS AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH A DRYING TREND
AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS TO BE MOSTLY ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED AND MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...WITH MOSTLY STREAMER LIKE CONVECTION WHICH MAY BE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY LOCAL EFFECTS IN SOME AREAS. RIDGE WEAKENS BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT LOCAL ISLANDS WILL REMAIN UNDER UPPER
LEVEL CONVERGENT SIDE OF CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH. AS A RESULT...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS APPEAR IN STORE FOR THE REGION BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
DURING THE FCST PRD. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT TJMZ DUE TO VCSH AND
-SHRA ACROSS WRN AND SW PR BTWN 16/18-16/24Z. SFC WINDS MAINLY
FROM THE EAST AT 10-15 KT...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...DUE TO THE BORDERLINE CONDITIONS AT BUOY 41053...SEAS
OF SIX TO SEVEN FEET IN NORTHERLY SWELLS AT 12 SECONDS...DECIDED
TO EXTEND CFW AND SCA AT LEAST 8 HOURS. BREAKING WAVES OF 9 TO 12
FEET ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 86 / 20 20 0 0
STT 75 85 75 85 / 20 20 10 10

[Macrocane]

I've updated the Central American Cold Surges Thread with the observation from February events wich were quiet weak making February a warmer than normal month:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2376129#p2376129

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly dry weather will prevail for most of this week for PR and VI with only a few showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST MON MAR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND SINK
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO JUST EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH
OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL BECOME
FAIRLY LIGHT AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. THE ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS TO SLOWLY LIFT FURTHER EAST AND NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER TODAY
AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATED WHILE INDUCING A WEAK TROUGH JUST NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK INDUCED LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION EMBEDDED IN THE
EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED BY LATE MORNING LEAVING
MOSTLY SUNNY AND FAIR WEATHER SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WHERE LOCAL TERRAIN AND SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF ENHANCED SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK... THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE AREA...AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COLD FRONT LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HELP CREATE
A PREVAILING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...SO FAR LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST A
SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS IS TO BE FOLLOWED BY SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN ISOLATED AREAS INDUCED MAINLY BY LOCAL SEA
BREEZES.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. QUICK PASSING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WHICH MAY VERY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT AND GUSTY...AND
SLIGHTLY SHIFTING TO A ESE DIRECTION AFTER 17/14Z WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS. SHRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW PR...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING AND CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJBQ AFTER 17/17Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC HAVE
BEEN CANCELLED. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD HOWEVER EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES TODAY. LATEST
DATA FROM BUOY 41043 SUGGESTS SEAS WERE NOW BELOW 7 FEET AND
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE WFO SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 87 75 / 30 0 0 10
STT 85 74 85 76 / 30 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST MON MAR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT...REACHING ITS MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE LATE TUESDAY
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIDGE ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
ERODE...WITH THE LOCAL ISLANDS REMAINING UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENT SIDE OF CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS IN
THE MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG COASTAL AREAS WITH A FRESH
TRADE WIND FLOW.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA WITH DRYING TREND AND SUBSIDENCE PATTERN. THEREFORE
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS
TO BE MOSTLY ISOLATED MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR...WEST
AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... WITH MOSTLY STREAMER LIKE
CONVECTION WHICH MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY LOCAL EFFECTS IN SOME
AREAS. RIDGE WEAKENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT LOCAL ISLANDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT SIDE OF CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TROUGH. AS A RESULT...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS APPEAR IN STORE FOR
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS DURING THE FCST
PRD. SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL MAINLY FROM THE E SE AT 10-15
KT AND GUSTY...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. SHRA POSSIBLE FOR TJBQ
AFTER 17/18Z...AND VCSH POSSIBLE AT TJSJ...TIST...AND TISX. EMBEDDED
LIGHT SHOWERS IN EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS E PR AND USVI.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT...SEAS BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 21
KNOTS EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF
THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUSTAIN SIGNIFICANT DRYING TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN AND MONA ISLAND. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH (RFWSJU).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 75 86 / 0 0 10 10
STT 74 85 76 85 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
958 PM AST MON MAR 17 2014

.UPDATE...NEGLIGEABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS NOTED BY LATE
EVENING...BUT WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN HAVE GAINED A SLIGHT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. THE 18/00Z SOUNDING WAS STABLE AND REACHES
LESS THAN 50 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY EVEN BELOW 5 KFT AND MUCH
BELOW 50 PERCENT ABOVE 7 KFT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY...SO AM RAISING THE MAX TEMP ON
THE NORTH COAST AROUND SAN JUAN ONE MORE DEGREE ABOVE TODAY`S MAX
OF 88 DEGREES. SOME AREAS COULD GET A LITTLE WARMER BUT STILL
EXPECT SOME BUFFERING BY A PRE-NOON SEA BREEZE ONSET ON THE NORTH
COAST.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Dry weather will prevail today in PR and VI.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST TUE MAR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL LEAD
TO DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT WITH AN INCREASING SUBSIDENT
WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BROAD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS
TODAY. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS FURTHER
EAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATED
WHILE INDUCING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE BY END OF WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARDS INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN INDUCED LOW
LEVEL PERTURBATION WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED PATCHES OF SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS BUT LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AS
FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVERNIGHT.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA PROVIDING A DRYING TREND AND SUBSIDENT
WEATHER PATTERN. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS TO BE LIMITED...AND SHOULD BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR...AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DO OCCUR WILL BE DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...AND
WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION IN THE FORM OF STREAMERS.

DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THE RIDGE ALOFT IS TO ERODE BUT
THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK
LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION AND A QUICK SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE CAPPED AND QUICKLY SUPPRESSED DUE TO THE STABLE CONDITIONS
ALOFT. . A RAPID IMPROVEMENT WILL FOLLOW ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRYING TREND AND
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. QUICK PASSING ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL
DURG THE EARLY MORNING WHICH MAY VERY BRIEFLY PARTS OF THE EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS AND THE LOCAL WATERS BTW PR AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KT AND
GUSTY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLD -SHRA/SHRA ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
FM 18/16Z-18/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND CREATE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.
THIS WILL LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLANDS AND
RESULT IN ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY
FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO AND MONA ISLAND. INCREASING
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 35 TO 50 PERCENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
(RFWSJU).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 75 86 74 / 0 10 10 0
STT 86 75 85 75 / 10 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

Red Flag Warning

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
855 AM AST TUE MAR 18 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH OVER THE AREA...LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT
DRYING. IN ADDITION...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE. THESE FACTORS...
COMBINED WITH VERY DRY VEGETATION WILL CREATE DANGEROUS WILDFIRE
CONDITIONS. ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY.

PRZ014-182200-
/O.UPG.TJSJ.FW.A.0004.140318T1400Z-140318T2200Z/
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FW.W.0004.140318T1400Z-140318T2200Z/
SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONDA ISLAND-
855 AM AST TUE MAR 18 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 014...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS UPGRADED THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6
PM AST THIS EVENING.

* WIND...EAST SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI): 790 IN CAMP SANTIAGO.

* 10-HR FUEL MOISTURE: 7 TO 9 PERCENT IN THE CAMP SANTIAGO AREA
AND CABO ROJO.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY: LESS THAN 40 PERCENT IN THE CAMP
SANTIAGO AREA AND LESS THAN 50 PERCENT IN CABO ROJO

* IMPACTS...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CARE WITH RESPECT
TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT COULD CAUSE WILDFIRES. AVOID ANY
EQUIPMENT THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS NEAR DRY GRASS OR BRUSH. DO NOT
TOSS CIGARETTES ON THE GROUND. REPORT NEW WILDFIRES QUICKLY TO
THE NEAREST FIRE DEPARTMENT OR LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICE. OUTDOOR
BURNING IS PROHIBITED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A COMBINATION OF FUELS AND WEATHER CONDITIONS SUPPORT
EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND/OR FIRE BEHAVIOR.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
240 PM AST TUE MAR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS....MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ERODE FRIDAY AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS TROUGH ALOFT AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. OVERALL...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
IN THE MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG COASTAL AREAS WITH A FRESH
TRADE WIND FLOW.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
HOLDS OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS TO BE MOSTLY ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED AND MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR...WEST AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH MOSTLY STREAMER LIKE
CONVECTION WHICH MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY LOCAL EFFECTS IN SOME
AREAS.

RIDGE WEAKENS BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS
TROUGH ALOFT AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERLY TRADES. UNDER
INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST...
ENHANCING MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THE NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. QUICK PASSING ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL
FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE EAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS AND THE
SURROUNDING WATERS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE E TO SE AT 10-15
KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLD -SHRA/SHRA ACROSS NW
PUERTO RICO FM 18/19Z-18/22Z.

&&

.MARINE....MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BY WEDNESDAY AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN STRONG
SUBSIDENCE PATTERN...LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING. IN ADDITION...
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THOSE REASONS...A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 6 PM AST. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE (RFWSJU).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 74 86 / 10 10 10 10
STT 75 85 75 85 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Dry weather will prevail today in PR and VI.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST WED MAR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY
FRIDAY...ERODING THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE. A GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE
SURROUNDING WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOSTLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS OVERNIGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS
MORNING. THIS GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
PWAT VALUES IN THE ORDER OF 1.0 INCH. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRESENT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL
COMBINE EACH DAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS TO
INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS
THIS HAPPENS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ERODE...ALLOWING A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THRU 20/06Z. QUICK PASSING ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL FROM
TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE EAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS AND THE
SURROUNDING WATERS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE E TO SE AT 10-15
KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLD -SHRA/SHRA ACROSS NW
PUERTO RICO FM 19/17Z-19/23Z AND BRIEF MVFR IN TJBQ. HIR TERRAIN MAY
BE OBSCURED AFT 19/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN STRONG
SUBSIDENCE PATTERN...LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING. WINDS WILL
SLIGHTLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 2O
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. FOR THOSE REASONS...ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO
THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFDSJU).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 85 74 / 10 10 10 0
STT 85 75 85 74 / 20 20 20 10