#60 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Mar 24, 2014 5:49 pm
FYI, per the ENSO thread, ENSO is +0.1, so warm neutral. A jump of 0.5 in a week. Dare I say it, but this is somewhat similar to 1997. (see graphics on ENSO thread)
Ill do a bit of a summary of 1997 below:
19 named storms (a lot, but for comparison, last year there were 20)
Strongest EPAC storm on record (Linda)
What was prior to 2011, what I recognized as the costliest EPAC storm on record (Pauline, though damage total was actually $500 mil, though if it occurred today, it would probs be higher)
The most recent hurricane on Baja California Norte (the northern part of the Peninsula) and the most recent storm to move into the SW US as a TS (Nora).
Two CPHC AOR storms (both which became super typhoons)
1 central America landfall, in addition to 4 MX landfalls.
2 Cat 5's (Linda and Guillermo).
So, what does this mean? I'm not saying we will get a 1997 repeat, but it gives a good idea on what to expect if we get a super El Nino. Also of note, there were the analogs Levi came up with for the ATL (1957,1963, 1968, 1972, 1982, 1986, 1991, 1994, 2002, and 2009). Applying these same analogs to the EPAC, I will say that 1957, 1968, and 1972 intrigue me the most. All were during the the inactive era, and all turned out to relatively solid. 1972 was the strongest El Nino of these, though it's number were just 14-8-4 (nothing to brag about, though it had a few neat storms, and some storms may be missing). 1968 had 20 storms, and 1957 had a Cat 4 into Mazatlan and a near-landfall for Hawaii. Granted, I have no clue whether these were Modoki's or not.
Looking at all these seasons Levi used as ATL analogs, all of them IMO had something interesting. In conclusions, I think it's pretty likely that something at least somewhat historic will happen this season.
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