ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

About the models,let's not forget that is spring barrier time when we have to look with caution to the model forecasts.

[cycloneye]

30 day SOI reaches El Nino threshold of -8

Now let's see how much time it spends below the -8 line.

20140214,20140315,-8.4

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[Ntxw]

30 day SOI reaches El Nino threshold of -8

Now let's see how much time it spends below the -8 line.

20140214,20140315,-8.4

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

Looks to continue to fall. Dry weather persisting in Darwin and subtropical jet/storms over Tahiti. We matched the values we lost and more now we will lose the last couple of weak +'s in the 30 day count then there will be no more positive readings.



Tahiti is the cluster in the S Pac near 20S and 140W

[stephen23]

What should we take from Nino 1+2 dropping since around the 7th of this month? Also has been a drop in Nino 3 over past couple of days while Nino 3.4 and 4 have continued to increase. Nino 3.4 has seemed to not be climbing as fast. Would all this lean towards a Modoki style Nino if the trend continued? I have also noticed some warming of the Atlantic off of the tip of Africa and some cooling off of the east coast over past 7 days. The atlantic MDR sst has also started to rise as well as the Carribbean. Could we be starting to see the first signs of the Atlantic returning to PDO+?

[Kingarabian]

What should we take from Nino 1+2 dropping since around the 7th of this month? Also has been a drop in Nino 3 over past couple of days while Nino 3.4 and 4 have continued to increase. Nino 3.4 has seemed to not be climbing as fast. Would all this lean towards a Modoki style Nino if the trend continued? I have also noticed some warming of the Atlantic off of the tip of Africa and some cooling off of the east coast over past 7 days. The atlantic MDR sst has also started to rise as well as the Carribbean. Could we be starting to see the first signs of the Atlantic returning to PDO+?

The thermocline is the boundary between the sun-drenched top ocean layer and the colder deeper layer. In the eastern tropical Pacific, the thermocline is shallow (15–50 meters).The depth of the thermocline can strongly influences the temperatures at the surfac

http://oceanmotion.org/html/impact/el-nino.htm

Nino 1+2 region is generally shallower than its counterparts. So expect it to be sensitive to any temporary changes in the ENSO pattern.

[dexterlabio]

Why are the reported SOI values from BOM different from the longpaddock site? It seems the values in longpaddock are ahead. Anyway, the 30-day SOI according to the site is now -9.44. There were high negative daily's for three consecutive days.


15 Mar 2014 1009.38 1010.70 -25.99 -8.24 1.18
16 Mar 2014 1008.55 1009.75 -25.42 -8.65 0.81
17 Mar 2014 1009.09 1010.40 -25.94 -9.44 0.37

[cycloneye]

Why are the reported SOI values from BOM different from the longpaddock site? It seems the values in longpaddock are ahead. Anyway, the 30-day SOI according to the site is now -9.44. There were high negative daily's for three consecutive days.


15 Mar 2014 1009.38 1010.70 -25.99 -8.24 1.18
16 Mar 2014 1008.55 1009.75 -25.42 -8.65 0.81
17 Mar 2014 1009.09 1010.40 -25.94 -9.44 0.37

There is a lag of one day on the 30 day data.

[cycloneye]

The waters may be more shallow but one thing is for sure right now and that is Nino 1+2 is falling like a rock to moderate La Nina levels. It will be interesting to watch this area to see if it continues cold and if that is the case,then the word that begins with the letter M may come to fruitition but is very early to have a conclusion.

[Ntxw]

Worth a repost again regarding 1+2 from last week.

All ENSO regions are warming significantly, except for 1+2 which is currently going down.

In due time it will cave. There is a little patch of cold water far far to the east just below the surface that will get pushed out, it will be replaced by the surging warm pool. ENSO 1+2 often goes on wild swings between warm and cold too much quicker than other regions. Waters here are very shallow.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center update of 3/17/14 has Nino 3.4 at -0.4C

Nino 3.4 remained the same as last Mondays update at -0.4C

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

30 day SOI down to -9.3

It continues to go down below the El Nino threshold of -8.

20140215,20140316,-9.3

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[Yellow Evan]

Is this potential El Nino similar to 2006 in any way?

[dexterlabio]

^Correct me if I'm wrong but I think the signs of El Nino came up by Summer during that year. All the signs showed up earlier this year, like the strong bursts of westerlies, very large warm pool at the subsurface, SOI crashing down, etc...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

We could possibly see a repeat of 2002, but a little stronger this time [possibly anomalies of over 1.5C]. We are seeing the signs earlier than 2006 and we could see similarities with 1982's and 1997's El Nino anomalies, but we could not get a "Super El Nino" though.


If you are curious about El Nino effects in our country, you can read this article here by clicking this text.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

IMO, this is what would turn out.

[euro6208]

It would be a very interesting year indeed because nino seasons tend to drive storm formation more to the east/southeast of Guam aka more warm water/less land in way for many powerful typhoons...

Super Typhoon Paka-1997
Super Typhoon Pongsona-2002
Typhoon Chataan-2002
Typhoon Omar-1992

To name a few devastating typhoons that have hit Guam during nino seasons not including near misses...

Looks like Guam and the Marianas is the place to be if you like tracking/experiencing strong storms with multiple landfalls during a nino season...

Of course anywhere in the WPAC is always at risk...

[cycloneye]

Part of the large warm pool at sub-surface has reached the surface. Now let's see how much it warms at the surface.

[Ntxw]

Per longpaddock site daily SOI has seen a persistent string of -20s. 30 day has reached -10 and 90 day has finally fallen below 0.

[hurricanetrack]

Nice area of cool anomalies still showing up, deep down too, in the far western Pacific. Looks like conveyor belt of warm pool will have at least a temporary lull. I can't be the only one who sees this. Look at the animation. Last couple of frames, western side (left) of the image. Those are blues showing up and they extend pretty far down in to the water....yes?

[dexterlabio]

^That's what I'd like to ask also. If the warm pool completely shifted east and upwell, what will happen next? It sure does look like cool anomalies showing up in the west.