ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[euro6208]

Nice area of cool anomalies still showing up, deep down too, in the far western Pacific. Looks like conveyor belt of warm pool will have at least a temporary lull. I can't be the only one who sees this. Look at the animation. Last couple of frames, western side (left) of the image. Those are blues showing up and they extend pretty far down in to the water....yes?

that huge warm pool will surface and sustain itself and grow bigger and badder spreading warm waters westward likely crushing any cool anomalies that gets in it's way...traditional nino years always show this with cool west and warm east...

just my opinion though i could be mistaken

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Nice area of cool anomalies still showing up, deep down too, in the far western Pacific. Looks like conveyor belt of warm pool will have at least a temporary lull. I can't be the only one who sees this. Look at the animation. Last couple of frames, western side (left) of the image. Those are blues showing up and they extend pretty far down in to the water....yes?

that huge warm pool will surface and sustain itself and grow bigger and badder spreading warm waters westward likely crushing any cool anomalies that gets in it's way...traditional nino years always show this with cool west and warm east...

just my opinion though i could be mistaken

It happened in the previous "traditional" El Ninos, I guess....

[cycloneye]

If you also look at the loop to the right,there is a growing secondary warm pool east of 120W down at 350 meters of depth.

[Ntxw]

Nice area of cool anomalies still showing up, deep down too, in the far western Pacific. Looks like conveyor belt of warm pool will have at least a temporary lull. I can't be the only one who sees this. Look at the animation. Last couple of frames, western side (left) of the image. Those are blues showing up and they extend pretty far down in to the water....yes?

that huge warm pool will surface and sustain itself and grow bigger and badder spreading warm waters westward likely crushing any cool anomalies that gets in it's way...traditional nino years always show this with cool west and warm east...

just my opinion though i could be mistaken

It happened in the previous "traditional" El Ninos, I guess....

This is correct. In a true El Nino thermocline there is very cold waters in the far far west below in contrast to the warm far east. The bigger the Nino the bigger the contrast and the colder the far west gets. In a La Nina it is the exact opposite. One could argue that cold pool helps push the CPac pool even further east enhancing the likelihood of a traditional Nino.

[Ntxw]

Looking back at some data for ENSO the 1997 El Nino saw it's first +0.0C or greater reading at 3.4 April 2nd and 2009 saw it's first May 6th. How long till we see our first week above 0C?

[cycloneye]

Here is a long articule that talks about all aspects of ENSO,the precursurs and effects by El Nino.

http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/features ... or-la-nada

[ninel conde]

JB says a modiki el nino likely. i think we are headed to 1997 myself.

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,on which side you are,on the ECMWF less rapid El Nino or GEFS that is more rapid sending eastward WWB's?

[cycloneye]

Interesting fact is this large warm pool of March 2014 is ahead in intensity from the 1997 one for March.

March of 1997



March of 2014

[cycloneye]

Another telling graphic to compare past El Nino events with the developing 2014 one.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw,on which side you are,on the ECMWF less rapid El Nino or GEFS that is more rapid sending eastward WWB's?

http://oi60.tinypic.com/nbrvr9.jpg

The euro will have the better handle. The GFS is confusing the persistent convection (subtropical jet) over the Pacific as the MJO which is not correct. The old MJO signal actually has weakened thus we see it go into the middle circle. The new MJO wave is currently being born over the Indian Ocean which in time (late next week) which is not very strong but will arrive in the Pacific where MJO waves have been enhanced and be the next WWB.

[cycloneye]

30 day SOI down to -10.3

It keeps falling.

20140216,20140317,-10.3

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[Ntxw]

Another telling graphic to compare past El Nino events with the developing 2014 one.

http://oi58.tinypic.com/wk5mav.jpg

I am thoroughly impressed. it's quite a feat and there is A LOT of heat. It takes a lot of energy and time to build up quite a pool and we've done it in a relatively quick amount of time.

More fun graphics to add







It will be tough not to get an El Nino of some sort with nothing really fighting it and that much content. Question remains how strong it will be and what kind.

[Hammy]

Was the negative PDO likely the primary factor that killed the 2012 attempt?

[Ntxw]

Was the negative PDO likely the primary factor that killed the 2012 attempt?

Most likely. That coupled with the sub-surface warm pool was shallow and centered over the eastern basin Nino 1+2 for the first half of the year. Here waters are easily changed due to the fact it is not very deep, you need support from the deeper WPAC and CPAC. I learned this lesson well both Nino or Nina from that year. The second half of 2012 was modeled to develop warm waters in the central Pacific as we are seeing now but never materialized.

Here is an animation of 2012 at it's peak

[MGC]

Sure hope this don't become as strong an event as the 98-99 El Nino was......MGC

[dexterlabio]

We just got a whooping -30.73 daily SOI according to longpaddock site


Average for last 30 days -11.8
Average for last 90 days -0.4
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -30.7

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Sure hope this don't become as strong an event as the 98-99 El Nino was......MGC

Did you mean the powerful 97-98 event? 98-99 was a La Niña year. The warm sub-surface temps are ahead of strength this year compared to 1997. There may be a chance though that this year is stronger.

[cycloneye]

We just got a whooping -30.73 daily SOI according to longpaddock site


Average for last 30 days -11.8
Average for last 90 days -0.4
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -30.7

Yikes!

[cycloneye]

Too early for JB to say Modoki?

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h

Modiki el nino is coming! SOI crash well underway.