Texas Spring-2014

[wxman57]

Trees are leafing out all across Houston - except for the Pecan trees. They're always last to acknowledge that winter is over. My favorite tree...

[Portastorm]

Trees are leafing out all across Houston - except for the Pecan trees. They're always last to acknowledge that winter is over. My favorite tree...

It may be time to call the authorities and put out a missing persons bulletin. What happened to the REAL wxman57?!

[Tireman4]

Trees are leafing out all across Houston - except for the Pecan trees. They're always last to acknowledge that winter is over. My favorite tree...

It may be time to call the authorities and put out a missing persons bulletin. What happened to the REAL wxman57?!

Last time I saw him, he hijacked a Grey Goose truck and headed to Key West, Florida.

[ravyrn]

It sure was windy today with the passing of the cold front. 2011's drought continues to have lasting impacts. The gusty wind after the front's passing brought down a ton of trees and limbs. We were fine here in the city, but out in rural ETX my mom had to get ready for work using candlelight and flashlights. She said she heard two trees blow down while she was getting ready for work. Any time a storm comes through or they get a gusty frontal passage, all the dead trees compliments of 2011 come tumbling down and inevitably leaves them without electricity.

[gboudx]

Its looking like a decent severe threat for the Metroplex on Saturday. We're gonna be camping out at Possum Kingdom Lake this weekend. I hope it doesn't pass through there too severe.

[weatherdude1108]

This is an encouraging story form our local media. We were supposed to get an El Nino last year. We'll see this works out.

http://kxan.com/2014/03/11/persistent-l ... in-a-year/

[Ntxw]

This is an encouraging story form our local media. We were supposed to get an El Nino last year. We'll see this works out.

http://kxan.com/2014/03/11/persistent-l ... in-a-year/

This is not correct that NOAA put out a forecast El Nino last year from the article. Every CPC update emphasized neutral conditions. I don't know where all the talk of El Nino last year came from but there was no support anywhere one would form, certainly not from NOAA or the ENSO thread.

[wxman57]

Right, models were hinting at SSTs in Nino 3.4 approaching +.5C by August last spring, but it takes a 3-month average of SSTs of +0.5C or greater for an El Nino to be declared. Here's the March 2013 forecast from the ECMWF. The current March forecast (which I can't post here because it hasn't been released publicly) has almost every member above +0.5C by mid June and 80-90% of members above +1.0 by August. The mean is about +1.3C to +1.4C by late August. We'll see if that pans out.

Regardless, there won't be much impact to Texas as far as spring weather, though I think that the cooler than normal near-shore water across the NW Gulf would limit available moisture for the severe storm season.

[weatherdude1108]

This is an encouraging story form our local media. We were supposed to get an El Nino last year. We'll see this works out.

http://kxan.com/2014/03/11/persistent-l ... in-a-year/

This is not correct that NOAA put out a forecast El Nino last year from the article. Every CPC update emphasized neutral conditions. I don't know where all the talk of El Nino last year came from but there was no support anywhere one would form, certainly not from NOAA or the ENSO thread.

Oops. Sorry about that.

I'm not sure where they got their source(?). They must have assumed based on one or two months of barely above normal SSTs pre-Nino thresholds, and jumped the gun that it would be an El Nino(?). Seems like they should have researched a bit more before putting that sentence and airing the story.

I'm still learning about what it takes for Ninos form. Nice to have you guys here to keep these guys (and myself) in check and sort through the media mumbo jumbo.

In any case, I am SO looking forward to a Nino forming with respect to this part of the globe!

[ravyrn]

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
100 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

...THREE AREA LAKES FALL TO RECORD LOW LEVELS AS DROUGHT WORSENS...

--------------------------------------------------------------------

SYNOPSIS...

THE STATEWIDE AVERAGE (WATER EQUIVALENT) PRECIPITATION FOR THE
PERIOD JANUARY 1 TO FEBRUARY 28 WAS ONLY 1.06 INCHES...MORE THAN 2
INCHES BELOW NORMAL. THIS WAS THE 5TH DRIEST START TO THE YEAR ON
RECORD (BASED ON DATA SINCE 1895).

THE DRY SPELL HAS CONTINUED INTO MARCH...WITH MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS AMASSING YEAR-TO-DATE PRECIPITATION DEFICITS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES. MANY LOCATIONS IN THE REGION HAVE YET TO TALLY AN INCH...
INCLUDING DFW AIRPORT AND WACO REGIONAL AIRPORT. THROUGH MARCH 13...
THE 2014 TOTAL AT WACO IS THE DRIEST ON RECORD.

THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION HAS RESULTED IN A RAPID EXPANSION OF
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. MODERATE (D1) TO SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT COVERS MUCH
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS AND COLORADO
RIVERS ARE IN EXTREME DROUGHT (D3)...EMPHASIZING THE LONG TERM
HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT. THE WATER LEVELS AT LAKE GRANBURY...LAKE
NOCONA...AND LAKE RAY HUBBARD ARE ALL AT RECORD LOWS.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE TO INDICATE A TRANSITION TO A WET REGIME
ANY TIME SOON...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EL NINO
WATCH. BASED ON LONG RANGE COMPUTER MODEL OUTPUT...THERE IS NOW A
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT EL NINO CONDITIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE BY THE END OF 2014. WHILE THIS MAY ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS EARLY AS THIS COMING FALL...THE REGION WILL LIKELY SUFFER
THROUGH A 4TH CONSECUTIVE SUMMER WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS

WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION SO FAR IN 2014...THE PERCENT OF TEXAS
AGRICULTURAL AREAS IN DROUGHT HAS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE YEAR.

MAR 11, 2014 DEC 31, 2013

CATTLE 76 54
HAY 70 31
WHEAT 97 86
CORN 92 73

TEXAS ONLY ACCOUNTS FOR AROUND 6 PERCENT OF THE U.S. WINTER WHEAT
CROP. THE MAJORITY IS GROWN THROUGHOUT THE MIDWEST...KANSAS (22
PERCENT) BEING THE LARGEST CONTRIBUTOR. ALTHOUGH WINTER WHEAT IS
HARDY ENOUGH TO SURVIVE A TYPICAL MIDWEST WINTER...MANY OF THESE
WHEAT FIELDS HAVE BEEN RAVAGED BY SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
IN YEARS...RAISING THE CONCERN THAT SOME OF THE CROP WOULD FAIL TO
EMERGE THIS SPRING. WITH 97 PERCENT OF TEXAS WHEAT-PRODUCING AREAS
IN DROUGHT...ADEQUATE RAINFALL WILL BE NEEDED THIS SPRING FOR THE
LONE STAR STATE TO OFFSET THE EXPECTED LOSSES IN THE MIDWEST.

MOST RANGELAND AND PASTURES ACROSS THE STATE ARE NOW IN POOR OR VERY
POOR CONDITION. MOST WINTER GRAINS ARE IN POOR OR VERY POOR
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO LIMITED PRECIPITATION...COLD TEMPERATURES
KEPT WINTER WHEAT AND OATS IN DORMANCY...MAKING THEM UNAVAILABLE FOR
GRAZING ANIMALS. COLD SEASON GRASSES HAVE ALSO BEEN INADEQUATE
FORAGE...CONTINUING THE NEED FOR SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING.

THE ANNUAL CATTLE INVENTORY REPORT FROM THE USDA REVEALED A FURTHER
DECLINE OF 2 PERCENT IN THE NUMBER OF U.S. CATTLE DURING 2013. NOW
AT ITS LOWEST POINT SINCE 1951...THE 87.7 MILLION HEAD OF AMERICAN
CATTLE IS A DECLINE OF OVER 10 MILLION SINCE SINCE 2007. THE TOTAL
NUMBER OF COWS (INCLUDING BREEDING HEIFERS FOR BOTH BEEF AND DAIRY)
WAS DOWN TO 38.3 MILLION...THE LOWEST AT ANY POINT SINCE 1941.

THE DROUGHT HAS ALSO IMPACTED OTHER LARGE GRAZING ANIMALS. THE
40-YEAR-OLD BUFFALO HERD AT THE FORT WORTH NATURE CENTER GREW TO 31
BISON LAST YEAR. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE STRESS THE DROUGHT HAS PUT
ON THE PASTURES IN THE PRESERVE...ALL 11 OF THE CALVES BORN IN 2013
WILL BE SOLD AT DROUGHT-REDUCED PRICES.

[texas1836]

I'm a little late after the storms Saturday, but the DWC (Duckworth Weather Center) we got an impressive 1.82 inches Saturday evening. This is the most we've had in a single rain event since January 1st. Hopefully this will be a good start to the growing season. I see Houston is greening up, unfortunately the McKinney area is struggling with bud break.

[Tireman4]

I wonder ( and I am doing this outloud..lol) if the Great Lakes really take awhile to thaw out....would we ( Houston) see cold air intrusions as late as.....June?

[texas1836]

I wonder ( and I am doing this outloud..lol) if the Great Lakes really take awhile to thaw out....would we ( Houston) see cold air intrusions as late as.....June?

Would it even make it to us with the southerly winds?

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose's El Niño discussion.

http://youtu.be/_iKyx4fUTkk

[TeamPlayersBlue]

'97 and '09 look to be the best years then we will have some excitement next year. Only problem is the La Nina right after it. Those arent fun. Although, is there a weak la nina that can bring a pretty strong NW flow?

Oh well, looks as if the East coast is in for a behemoth of a storm. When we made 'the bet,' i was predicting that a rival to '93 superstorm would happen and we would have a night below freezing. Very amateur of me to do that, but with the NW flow and the SOI dropping, i thought it would be worth it. I havent really checked to see if we go below freezing yet though. Still recovering from SXSW and i need sleep BADLY.

[gpsnowman]

Quite a thick haze of dust late last night. And if my nose was correct, the pungent odor of West Texas cattle droppings was mixed in with the wind as well. I swear, it smelled like Hwy. 84 as you approach Lubbock from the south. That was not just dust in the air last night.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Amarillo is the worst smelling city on earth. Drove in on I-40 one night planning on staying the night there (helping my cousin move from Vegas) but it smelled so bad we kept driving to Wichita Falls.

[Ntxw]

The weather pattern in Texas is going to drift dramatically later in April. We're going to get much wetter imo with the transition of SOI into El Nino threshold and persistent subtropical jet. First we must lose the dominant cold air over the continent and when true warmth kicks in it's going to get wet IMO.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Days of endless rain showers im ready!

[South Texas Storms]

I really hope so! Ntxw, do you think this summer could be wet like 2007 was?