ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Hurricane Jed]

Wow! That's impressive. To be honest I'm eager to see if this becomes as strong or stronger than the 97-98 El Nino. I didn't start following the tropics til summer of 98 :/

[Ntxw]

Wow! That's impressive. To be honest I'm eager to see if this becomes as strong or stronger than the 97-98 El Nino. I didn't start following the tropics til summer of 98 :/

It's not likely we see something stronger than 1997 that was strongest of them all this century arguably. The other possible candidate for something equal may be in the 1880s or 1890s but data is incredibly sparse back then. We have enough warmth down below to sustain good values to about mid summer. In the fall there is usually a resurgence to ENSO Nino or Nina when feedback generally builds more anomalies to extend a strong event through winter. We will need to repeat what is currently happening right now again late summer to compete with 1997. But I completely agree, wow is the right word!

[Hurricane Jed]

Wow! That's impressive. To be honest I'm eager to see if this becomes as strong or stronger than the 97-98 El Nino. I didn't start following the tropics til summer of 98 :/

It's not likely we see something stronger than 1997 that was strongest of them all this century arguably. The other possible candidate for something equal may be in the 1880s or 1890s but data is incredibly sparse back then. We have enough warmth down below to sustain good values to about mid summer. In the fall there is usually a resurgence to ENSO Nino or Nina when feedback generally builds more anomalies to extend a strong event through winter. We will need to repeat what is currently happening right now again late summer to compete with 1997.

Lol I didn't say it was going to happen. Just that I would like to see IF it does. I'm not expecting anything just that my interest has perked a little. 1997 wasn't the strongest this century because this is the 21st century. 1997 was the 20th century. Unless you meant within the last 100 years.

[Ntxw]

ECMWF reanalysis of Ocean sub surface. Here are the 3 biggest El Nino's and what they looked like 30 day average for March

1972



1982



1997



2014



I went through all the other Nino's as well and they were much weaker at this point except for 1965 which was a very strong Nino but not the 2C one would associate a super Nino with. From the reanalysis data 1997 looks the closest to what is currently out there.

[Hurricane Jed]

1997 and 2014 look almost identical.

[Ntxw]

1997 and 2014 look almost identical.

Freaky really, and the godas image of 2014 is about a week outdated. It looks even more identical now with warm values 1-2C+ where the cold patch is where 90W is that has shrunk the past week.

[Hurricane Jed]

All the pieces of the puzzle falling into place

[cycloneye]

Here is a long articule that says it all. I grabbed the most important headline from it that talks about the increase of probability of having El Nino but read the whole thing. IRI will release the update on Thursday with the plume of models.

Tony Barnston, the chief forecaster at Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), told Mashable that the odds of an El Niño event developing during the next six months have increased to about 60%, which is up from just over 50% on March 6.

http://mashable.com/2014/03/19/intense- ... ybe/?sdlke

[Hurricane Jed]

50 to 60 in just under 2 weeks.... amazing...

[Ntxw]

Something to watch will be the MJO. I've mentioned a new wave is being born over the Indian Ocean and will arrive in the Pacific likely a week or two down the road. Early April of 1997 saw the birth of the MJO in the IO as well followed by intense activity of the index through that month and May into the Pacific.

[cycloneye]

30 day SOI down to -12.3

The crash continues.

20140217,20140318,-12.3

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[Ntxw]

Here is a long articule that says it all. I grabbed the most important headline from it that talks about the increase of probability of having El Nino but read the whole thing. IRI will release the update on Thursday with the plume of models.

Tony Barnston, the chief forecaster at Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), told Mashable that the odds of an El Niño event developing during the next six months have increased to about 60%, which is up from just over 50% on March 6.

http://mashable.com/2014/03/19/intense- ... ybe/?sdlke

In comparison, back in April 2009 the IRI had much less values for El Nino. This shows you their confidence level in such an event occurring this early is much higher than that year as a probability.

[CaliforniaResident]

Looks like its pretty much guaranteed that California's drought will end in the 2014-2015 winter since strong El Ninos bring well above average rain here.

[Blown Away]

Joe Bastardi says Modiki El Niño coming...

[Kingarabian]

Joe Bastardi says Modiki El Niño coming...

Yeah, read the previous pages for an explanation to why that is not true.


As Ntxw has said, Nino 1+2 are subject to radical changes.

[Ntxw]

Since modoki has been thrown around here is the re-analysis shown for 2004 in March sub-surface.



Here's something shocking that no one apparently has said anything about. Everyone says 1992 (Andrew) was during El Nino so I looked at the sub-surface then ONI. This is not correct, at least during the Hurricane season. JJA was neutral reading all the way to 1994 and there was NO sub-surface warm pool!!! In fact the only reasoning is that the El Nino of 1991-1992 was so strong it extended into spring of 1992 but by June it ended. There was no El Nino during hurricane Andrew!

Per ONI 1992: JJA = 0.3C, JAS = 0.0C

And during heart of the season ASO = -0.2C!

To be declared an El Nino there must be 5 consecutive trimonthlies overlapped with no disruptions, clearly there was not during Andrew 1992.

[Kingarabian]

Since modoki has been thrown around here is the re-analysis shown for 2004 in March sub-surface.

Here's something shocking that no one apparently has said anything about. Everyone says 1992 (Andrew) was during El Nino so I looked at the sub-surface then ONI. This is not correct, at least during the Hurricane season. JJA was neutral reading all the way to 1994 and there was NO sub-surface warm pool!!! In fact the only reasoning is that the El Nino of 1991-1992 was so strong it extended into spring of 1992 but by June it ended. There was no El Nino during hurricane Andrew!

Per ONI 1992: JJA = 0.3C, JAS = 0.0C

And during heart of the season ASO = -0.2C!

To be declared an El Nino there must be 5 consecutive trimonthlies overlapped with no disruptions, clearly there was not during Andrew 1992.

Great discovery.

But why has this not been discovered by even the top Meteorologists? I mean Hurricane Andrew was all over the record and history books...

Plus they're saying that the 1991-1994 seasons were all in El-Nino events.

[Hurricane Jed]

Wouldn't it have just been the norm for 1991-1994 due to the inactive phase? Just throwing that out there.

[Ntxw]

Great discovery.

But why has this not been discovered by even the top Meteorologists? I mean Hurricane Andrew was all over the record and history books...

Plus they're saying that the 1991-1994 seasons were all in El-Nino events.

Because of the overlapping idea, I wondered if maybe there were El Nino values during Andrew and then cooler after. But this was not the case. By mid-July Nino 3.4 had fallen below the 0.5 threshold which began in June. Then between August to November it ranged from 0.0C to -0.5C so that can't be it.

1991-92 was El Nino, 1992-1993 was neutral 1993-1994 was neutral 1994-95 was El Nino. ENSO spans 2 years typically the second half of one year and the first half of the second. Andrew would've fallen under the 1992-1993 Neutral.

[dexterlabio]

1991-1994 was not El Nino all throughout, there were months when it turned neutral then swing back to El Nino. This back-to-back Nino is rare though. I agree with Ntwx, the first few months of 1992 had El Nino switching to neutral phase. If La Nina appeared that year right after the 1991-1992 EN, there could have been three or four Andrews.