ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[CrazyC83]

If we are talking a repeat of 1997, MJO means nothing in the Atlantic.

I would also expect most of the 2014 storms to have non-tropical origins.

[Kingarabian]

SOI already almost at the 2012's summer negative peak.

[stephen23]

Great discovery.

But why has this not been discovered by even the top Meteorologists? I mean Hurricane Andrew was all over the record and history books...

Plus they're saying that the 1991-1994 seasons were all in El-Nino events.

Because of the overlapping idea, I wondered if maybe there were El Nino values during Andrew and then cooler after. But this was not the case. By mid-July Nino 3.4 had fallen below the 0.5 threshold which began in June. Then between August to November it ranged from 0.0C to -0.5C so that can't be it.

1991-92 was El Nino, 1992-1993 was neutral 1993-1994 was neutral 1994-95 was El Nino. ENSO spans 2 years typically the second half of one year and the first half of the second. Andrew would've fallen under the 1992-1993 Neutral.

This would be the same case for 1994. 1994 was also neutral during the peak of the season and did not gain El Nino values until late season.

J F M A M J J A S O N D
1994 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2

[Ntxw]

This would be the same case for 1994. 1994 was also neutral during the peak of the season and did not gain El Nino values until late season.

J F M A M J J A S O N D
1994 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2

Well when you have a developing Nino like in 1994-1995 I like to give it some leeway as the CPC uses ASO as criteria for peak of hurricane season. Usually the ONI value in ASO is considered to them the "unofficial" ENSO state for any given hurricane season, rarely is there any Nina or Nino develops after this period. Above 0.5C anomalies had begun to show up in June of 1994 just not the overlapping 3 trimonthlies so it's fair to give it the benefit of doubt for development but eventually did 1C+ in the fall. 1992 (hurricane season) had neither developing El Nino nor the necessary trimonthlies it was full force on Neutral. Even the weekly readings in July/August/September all the way to 1993 did not have the qualifications and were below 0.5C and were even below 0C in August and Sept. That's why I responded to Kingarabian's post thinking the weekly readings would've allowed it but even that did not support.

Here is the sub-surface for July and August of 1992





So conclusion I have found no supporting evidence Andrew occurred during an El Nino. One could even argue it happened in a brief period of cold neutral that spanned a few months.

[dexterlabio]

From longpaddock:

SOI values for 20 Mar 2014
Average for last 30 days -13.0
Average for last 90 days -0.7
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -28.3


daily's still very negative...

[cycloneye]

Here are the updated graphics of the plume of models and the probabilities. August,September and October is at 55% and the 60% is for the September,October and November period. What do the peeps think about this?





http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... -sst_table

[CaliforniaResident]

Here are the updated graphics of the plume of models and the probabilities. August,September and October is at 55% and the 60% is for the September,October and November period. What do the peeps think about this?

http://oi59.tinypic.com/25i6bzn.jpg

http://oi61.tinypic.com/4gq5ur.jpg

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... -sst_table

Hopefully, it will bring California some much needed rain and the Eastern U.S. a much milder than normal winter and the Deep South will get no major hurricane landfalls. El Nino is like Robin Hood- taking weather from the weather-active parts of the U.S and giving it to weather deprived California. I'm sorry if I offended all the hurricane enthusiasts who are hoping for an active Atlantic season.

[Ntxw]

ESPI continues to rise at 0.76, Pacific is very wet.

[cycloneye]

I think is time for some humor and not have all the posting about numbers,models,sst anomalies,kelvin waves etc. Imagine if after I ,Ntxw and others have posted for many weeks El Nino doesn't come or in other words El Nino hype,look at the reaction that would occur by many peeps.

[Ntxw]

Would be huge bust, 2013 hurricane season equivalent but hey we wont go down alone! Big name ph.D's out there thinks so especially the MJO guys who specialize in tropical forcing. Kudos to Dr. Ventrice being the first to see similarities with 97!

[cycloneye]

Here are the updated graphics of the plume of models and the probabilities. August,September and October is at 55% and the 60% is for the September,October and November period. What do the peeps think about this?

http://oi59.tinypic.com/25i6bzn.jpg

http://oi61.tinypic.com/4gq5ur.jpg

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... -sst_table

Here is the PDF form of the Mid-March update from IRI.

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uplo ... mar141.pdf

[cycloneye]

Articule from the Capital Weather Gang of DC talking about El Nino. Excerpt below:


“It’s something we haven’t really seen since the ’97 El Niño,” Blake said of the westerly wind bursts and ocean observations. Instead of having trade winds blowing from the east at five to 10 mph, some locations in the western Pacific have had winds from the west blowing at up to 30 miles per hour, Blake says. This is important because it has ripple effects on the sea and below the sea surface.

So impressed by the strong and persistent westerly winds, Roundy told Freedman he thinks there’s “around” an 80 percent chance of an unusually strong El Niño.

Separately, meteorologist Michael Ventrice from Weather Services International, discusses a possible related harbinger of a big El Niño: a powerhouse eastward push of water, known as a Kelvin wave, under the sea surface. This kind of underwater wave, triggered by the westerly wind bursts, is key for transporting warm water from the west Pacific to the east Pacific and getting an El Niño event underway. But Ventrice stresses it needs some additional propulsion:

The current Kelvin wave in the Pacific Ocean has achieved the same strength as the one that preceded the 1997 Super El Niño event. This is an extremely rare feat but there still has to be a number of things to happen before we can say we are headed towards a strong El Niño. We need to see the continuation of strong westerly winds near the Equator over the Central Pacific to keep the momentum forward.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... r-el-nino/

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Ntxw, what would a neutral ENSO mean for Texas weather?

[cycloneye]

More West Wind bursts (Weaker than past bursts) moving from West to East.Look down to March 20.

[cycloneye]

Interesting messages via twitter by JB that Dr Eric Blake answers.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 1 min
I have been on this coming nino for 4 months,Its a top down cold PDO enso event and will self destruct in winter. Similar to 50s-70s

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 2 min
The Super Nino crew is out gain I see. When the SOI drives the enso, its atmospherically driven, not warm PDO.which means Modiki

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 5s
@BigJoeBastardi The PDO is a player but not the major driver. Big El Ninos happen in the cold PDO era-- see 72-73 for a classic example

[Yellow Evan]

I thought PDO was positive.

[cycloneye]

30 day SOI continues to crash,now down to -13.3

20140218,20140319,-13.3

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[Ntxw]

Per the animation is very telling. As well as convection in the Pacific. Warm SST's are pushing east (follow the top animation closely). Both of these occurring during an unfavorable MJO. This tells us there is feedback happening and the warm pool is self sustaining not just MJO dependent coming and fading to it.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnection ... dyear=2014

We are at the equinox where maximum sun is over the equator. The next several months the SST's averages over Nino regions begins to fall as the southern hemisphere side goes into winter. Warm values now becomes even warmer as the averages begins to fall, this is the meaning of the spring barrier as SST's transitions. By next month we will have a good idea if an El Nino is in place and growing or it was just a spring blip.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, what would a neutral ENSO mean for Texas weather?

We just went through back to back neutral years in Texas. Perhaps that is more appropriate discussion in one of the Texas threads.

[dexterlabio]

I thought PDO was positive.

That's what I think too. We saw positive PDO readings for some months now, didn't we? Is it expected to return to negative in the coming months? Also, if this brewing El Nino turns out to be a strong one, is it going to help sustain +PDO?