Texas Spring-2014

[Portastorm]

:uarrow:
I really hope so! Ntxw, do you think this summer could be wet like 2007 was?

In my opinion, no. I think we're in for another drought plagued summer.

On KRLD the other day, the state climatologist said they expect drought conditions to persist through the end of the decade - six more freaking years. Dandy.

Not sure I'm sold on your short-term assessment, dhweather, about this summer as I think developing Nino conditions may bring us some relief. At least there is some hope in that regard. Long term, I'm afraid everything I have read and seen would support what the state climatologist is saying. We're in the middle of a (general) cold PDO pattern and while that long term (a decade or more) cycle can be interposed with a Nino here and there, neutral to Nina conditions generally return quickly and the overall impact is detrimental to Texas and precipitation totals.

[paintplaye]

:uarrow:
I really hope so! Ntxw, do you think this summer could be wet like 2007 was?

In my opinion, no. I think we're in for another drought plagued summer.

On KRLD the other day, the state climatologist said they expect drought conditions to persist through the end of the decade - six more freaking years. Dandy.

Not sure I'm sold on your short-term assessment, dhweather, about this summer as I think developing Nino conditions may bring us some relief. At least there is some hope in that regard. Long term, I'm afraid everything I have read and seen would support what the state climatologist is saying. We're in the middle of a (general) cold PDO pattern and while that long term (a decade or more) cycle can be interposed with a Nino here and there, neutral to Nina conditions generally return quickly and the overall impact is detrimental to Texas and precipitation totals.

At the same time, as with all long-term forecasts, we have to be extremely careful. This was especially true last year in relation to the Atlantic Hurricane Season and the long range winter outlook. I think the "busted' Hurricane outlook did an excellent job at demonstrating how far we are from accurate long-term forecasts. This probably goes without saying, but remember how much of a difference meso and synoptic scale features can make in long-term forecasts. Unfortunately producing those forecasts for more than a couple of days is impossible. With that being said, I do respect long-term forecasts and these forecasts are usually the first representation of what is to come. Luckily everyone here seems to be doing a good job at keeping these forecasts in perspective. With respect to ENSO forecasts, remember models have been having issues accurately forecasting conditions. Even then many forecasts keep conditions close to neutral (+.5C) through fall. Furthermore as Portastorm mentioned, if the PDO stays strong with its cold pattern, that could prevent a positive ENSO phase from lasting too long.

[weatherdude1108]

Well, I'm less excited today about the posts on here since yesterday regarding ENSO/Nino/drought. Seems to turn on a dime. I understand the long-term cold PDO cycle is a big player in all of this (unfortunately). Anyway.

Maybe tomorrow it will be talk of flooding and overflowing lakes this Summer?

[Ntxw]

At the same time, as with all long-term forecasts, we have to be extremely careful. This was especially true last year in relation to the Atlantic Hurricane Season and the long range winter outlook. I think the "busted' Hurricane outlook did an excellent job at demonstrating how far we are from accurate long-term forecasts. This probably goes without saying, but remember how much of a difference meso and synoptic scale features can make in long-term forecasts. Unfortunately producing those forecasts for more than a couple of days is impossible. With that being said, I do respect long-term forecasts and these forecasts are usually the first representation of what is to come. Luckily everyone here seems to be doing a good job at keeping these forecasts in perspective. With respect to ENSO forecasts, remember models have been having issues accurately forecasting conditions. Even then many forecasts keep conditions close to neutral (+.5C) through fall. Furthermore as Portastorm mentioned, if the PDO stays strong with its cold pattern, that could prevent a positive ENSO phase from lasting too long.

This is partially incorrect. Majority of forecasts is for El Nino through the fall. Both the CPC and IRI as the second uses the more statistical models that do not rely on dynamical models. And if you are talking dynamical models, all of them put in place a Nino by then. So while they may be overzealous, you can't dismiss the consensus trend just because they have limited skill. It is a tool among many other things.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose today mentioned a blurb regarding the long range forecast.

"This morning, I was looking at the latest long-range forecast data for the month of April and interestingly, some of the models are beginning to show a trend toward wetter weather developing across Central Texas by about the second week of the month. The temperature is forecast to be near or slightly below normal the first week of the month but trending warmer by the middle of the month."

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[dhweather]

:uarrow:
I really hope so! Ntxw, do you think this summer could be wet like 2007 was?

In my opinion, no. I think we're in for another drought plagued summer.

On KRLD the other day, the state climatologist said they expect drought conditions to persist through the end of the decade - six more freaking years. Dandy.

Not sure I'm sold on your short-term assessment, dhweather, about this summer as I think developing Nino conditions may bring us some relief. At least there is some hope in that regard. Long term, I'm afraid everything I have read and seen would support what the state climatologist is saying. We're in the middle of a (general) cold PDO pattern and while that long term (a decade or more) cycle can be interposed with a Nino here and there, neutral to Nina conditions generally return quickly and the overall impact is detrimental to Texas and precipitation totals.

I think if we get a Nino, it will be after August, and May-August is a pretty long (and hot) stretch to have minimal rain. I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't see any potential relief from a Nino event until fall/winter. Even the 2600 hour GFS lost the cat 5 in the gulf.

[dhweather]

Here were are, March 22, and we've had exactly 1 severe thunderstorm and 0 tornado watches. And that trend will continue with this persistent northwest flow aloft.

[dhweather]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
227 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUED A SLOW SOUTHWARD PUSH
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. AT 2 PM CDT...THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR
CANTON TO NEAR HILLSBORO TO SOUTH OF HAMILTON. TEMPERATURES SOUTH
OF THE FRONT WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...BUT
PARTIAL CLEARING IN AN AREA AROUND GATESVILLE...KILLEEN...HEARNE
AND WACO HAD ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY VALUES MAY REACH UP TO 1500 J/KG
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 8 PM
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR STRONG
CONVECTION WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE ADVANCING
FRONT AROUND WACO...TEMPLE...CAMERON...AND HEARNE.

WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS FOR TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT/S ADVANCE INTO THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SHALLOW FRONT HAS
PRODUCED A FEW WEAK CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHEAST AREAS AROUND SHERMAN...PARIS AND SULPHUR SPRINGS TODAY
AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN MOST AREAS
BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE PRIOR
TO SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS BY EARLY SUNDAY...SO ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
ELEVATED WITH LITTLE OR NO THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. GREATEST
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE
WILL BE GREATEST.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY
AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS AREAWIDE. THIS WAVE WAS CURRENTLY
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ABOUT 400 MILES WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWED THIS SYSTEM WELL AS CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTIVE CLOUD ELEMENTS CENTERED NEAR 26 DEG NORTH LATITUDE AND
123 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY ON SUNDAY SINCE THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE.

PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING IN CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL END BY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN ALL AREAS
BY MONDAY EVENING.

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO OK/TX. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEMS IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM MOVE ACROSS TEXAS.
INSTABILITY COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
THURSDAY NEAR A DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT...BUT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AS BETTER UPPER FORCING MOVES
ACROSS OKLAHOMA. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
THE CURRENT COOL AIRMASS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IS
REINFORCED WITH A SECOND SURGE OF COOL AIR ON MONDAY. THE COOLEST
MORNING LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY...WITH SCATTERED FROST POSSIBLE IN
AREAS WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE DFW AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE 70S IN MANY AREAS LATE IN THE WEEK.


Winter doesn't want to let go.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Now I'm heartbroken that you boys aren't asking me to share ALL my cold with you now! Will do my best anyways since I know you folks were wishing all this cold and snow on us earlier.

[wxman57]

Great day today. Up to 80 degrees and a bit of sunshine. Bluebonnets were all along the sides of the bike trail. Spring has sprung.

[weatherdude1108]

Great day today. Up to 80 degrees and a bit of sunshine. Bluebonnets were all along the sides of the bike trail. Spring has sprung.

I also saw a bunch of Bluebonnets in areas along Mopac here in Austin today.

[ravyrn]

Great day today. Up to 80 degrees and a bit of sunshine. Bluebonnets were all along the sides of the bike trail. Spring has sprung.

Be sure to share the the bluebonnets w/ our fan lady SS in our TX Pics thread. I still need to deliver on my dogwood pics.

[Portastorm]

Spring may have sprung but this is an amazingly cold USA temp profile for a late March morning. Much of the nation is below freezing!




Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Tireman4]

The pollen is killing me. Just killing me. I have not run in two days because of it. Ugghhh.....I will do a survival 7 mile run today...Help me...LOL

[Ntxw]

El Nino is coming, and could be a doozy one. 1957, 1972, 1982, and 1997 are the only ones with a comparable start to what we are seeing out in the tropical Pacific. All of these years (except 1972 there was a one year lag and 73 had the rain) featured flooding and dramatic shifts to very high rainfall totals.

Headlines once past spring in Texas is going to change drastically from drought.

[aggiecutter]

El Nino is coming, and could be a doozy one. 1957, 1972, 1982, and 1997 are the only ones with a comparable start to what we are seeing out in the tropical Pacific. All of these years (except 1972 there was a one year lag and 73 had the rain) featured flooding and dramatic shifts to very high rainfall totals.

Headlines once past spring in Texas is going to change drastically from drought.

http://i62.tinypic.com/6f9u80.jpg

I've seen similar post by Reed Timmer, Joe Bastardi, and Larry Cosgrove over the past several days. The only caveat to strong El Ninos is that they tend to flood the nation with mild Pacific air during the winter, as they have a tendency to dominate the pattern.

[ravyrn]

Certainly not feeling very Spring-like in parts of Texas this evening. It's already dipping into the 30s in Hill Country. 40s stretching from Austin, to Waco, and eastward towards Palestine and Jacksonville.

[dhweather]

El Nino is coming, and could be a doozy one. 1957, 1972, 1982, and 1997 are the only ones with a comparable start to what we are seeing out in the tropical Pacific. All of these years (except 1972 there was a one year lag and 73 had the rain) featured flooding and dramatic shifts to very high rainfall totals.

Headlines once past spring in Texas is going to change drastically from drought.

Brother, I hope and pray you are right. We're going to have some extremely serious problems by late summer if substantial rains do not come between now and August.

[Ntxw]

Brother, I hope and pray you are right. We're going to have some extremely serious problems by late summer if substantial rains do not come between now and August.

Me too. All droughts end in flood so it's the way it has to be. And just because it's flooding doesn't mean it's drought ending either just too much at once. We'll see, the best perhaps the El Nino is so strong it will force the PDO to remain positive for a few years like 2002-2004 period and cut down some -PDO before it returns and major La Nina arrives again.

But whether it is drought ending or not this is a potential very big El Nino for the next 10-12 months.

[paintplaye]

At the same time, as with all long-term forecasts, we have to be extremely careful. This was especially true last year in relation to the Atlantic Hurricane Season and the long range winter outlook. I think the "busted' Hurricane outlook did an excellent job at demonstrating how far we are from accurate long-term forecasts. This probably goes without saying, but remember how much of a difference meso and synoptic scale features can make in long-term forecasts. Unfortunately producing those forecasts for more than a couple of days is impossible. With that being said, I do respect long-term forecasts and these forecasts are usually the first representation of what is to come. Luckily everyone here seems to be doing a good job at keeping these forecasts in perspective. With respect to ENSO forecasts, remember models have been having issues accurately forecasting conditions. Even then many forecasts keep conditions close to neutral (+.5C) through fall. Furthermore as Portastorm mentioned, if the PDO stays strong with its cold pattern, that could prevent a positive ENSO phase from lasting too long.

This is partially incorrect. Majority of forecasts is for El Nino through the fall. Both the CPC and IRI as the second uses the more statistical models that do not rely on dynamical models. And if you are talking dynamical models, all of them put in place a Nino by then. So while they may be overzealous, you can't dismiss the consensus trend just because they have limited skill. It is a tool among many other things.

I understand the statistical and dynamical representation of the models and I know the general consensus is for El-Nino conditions. What I am trying to say is to be careful about intensity (and longevity). I am simply saying the same thing you are saying, that these models are just a tool and I feel like this "tool" may be a little bullish, especially with a negative PDO in affect. Time will tell!