ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

When was the last time we had a +PDO?

May 2010

[Kingarabian]

I read online that the sun plays a role with the PDO. Is it correct?

[cycloneye]

Here is the updated data of the sub-surface. The graphics speak for themselves.

[Alyono]

given the possibility of such strong warming in the CPAC, could this significantly increase the chance of a Hawaiian landfall? Had a strike on the minor unpopulated islands in 2009

[Ntxw]

Here is the updated data of the sub-surface. The graphics speak for themselves.

Just incredible. Remember ENSO peaks in the fall and winter not spring and summer. What we have now out there is equal to if not greater than what 2009 had at it's peak in terms of equatorial heat potential.

2009





Currently, it continues to rise





It's going to be unlikely not to get a Nino of some sort. Odds are definitely increasing for moderate and/or stronger one.

[cycloneye]

Those blues off SA continue to hang on although shrinking.

[euro6208]

We have a category 4 cyclone in the south indian ocean.

What effect will this have on this enso?

[Ntxw]

While much debate is on modoki or traditional here is one outcome we must consider, a basin wide El Nino. ENSO can be strongest at different locations during its life so not inconceivable with such a large pool that it becomes such.

[cycloneye]

I found this post at Dr Masters blog very informative that I am posting it here.

NOAA ENSO data updated already. ESPI is at 0.71, was 0.72 yesterday. Been ~0.70 a few days now. More of a step pause than step fall & step up again. SOI is rapidly moving as well. Average for last 30 days is -12.9. There is alot of anomalous west winds on TAO as of yesterday data. Kelvin waves are tough to model. They are almost always less in the forecast than what occurs. With another one setting up west of there & the general pattern.. once you have them coming regularly & as strong as the one is now, the chances of atleast a weaker one in the wake is good. The temperature anomaly below the surface is higher than before the 1997-98 El Nino event. The circulation of cooler surface water being whisked in from the Southern Pacific, up along South America has been cut off.

Looking at everything. I'm going to be a bit less conservative than NOAA & say 85% of El Nino conditions occurring in the next 7-12weeks. 70% chance this gets declared an offical EL Nino (that persists for 5 months) & 40% chance it becomes a Super El Niño.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

given the possibility of such strong warming in the CPAC, could this significantly increase the chance of a Hawaiian landfall? Had a strike on the minor unpopulated islands in 2009

There was also a near-landfall in Hawaii last year.

It's hard to tell. 1982, 1992, 1958, 1959 are the only true Hawaii landfalls.

Storms hit the unpopulated part of the island chain in 1957, 1985, 2009, and 1983.

Near-misses/TD landfalls occurred in 2013, 2005 1982, 1992. I'm not counting Eugene 93, so I am skeptical that really was a TD at landfall.


So, 75% of TS or higher Hawaii landfall had an El Nino, with only 1958 not having an El Nino.

As for the unpopulated part of the chain, 3 of the 4 years that had one of those were El Nino's. So again 75%, with 1985 being an anomaly but that was the 3rd most active season on record.

As for the near-misses, 50% of the 4 had an El Nino. !982 and 1992 had an El Nino, but had a second Hawaiian landfall/near-landfall.

Not to mention since the PDO negative era began in the mid to late 90's, only 2005, 2013, and 2009 did Hawaii sustain something close to a landfall.

Also of note is the lack of Hawii impacts in the great 97-98 El Nino. Even the next 3 El Nino's that followed saw no Hawaiian threat.

So, I'd say there is a slightly above average risk of a Hawii landfall if this El Nino materializes.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricane Jed]

I found this post at Dr Masters blog very informative that I am posting it here.

NOAA ENSO data updated already. ESPI is at 0.71, was 0.72 yesterday. Been ~0.70 a few days now. More of a step pause than step fall & step up again. SOI is rapidly moving as well. Average for last 30 days is -12.9. There is alot of anomalous west winds on TAO as of yesterday data. Kelvin waves are tough to model. They are almost always less in the forecast than what occurs. With another one setting up west of there & the general pattern.. once you have them coming regularly & as strong as the one is now, the chances of atleast a weaker one in the wake is good. The temperature anomaly below the surface is higher than before the 1997-98 El Nino event. The circulation of cooler surface water being whisked in from the Southern Pacific, up along South America has been cut off.

Looking at everything. I'm going to be a bit less conservative than NOAA & say 85% of El Nino conditions occurring in the next 7-12weeks. 70% chance this gets declared an offical EL Nino (that persists for 5 months) & 40% chance it becomes a Super El Niño.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Interesting. Makes sense. Seems with each passing day things look better and better.

[cycloneye]

Comparison between 1997 and 2014 sub-surface below:

This is a graphic from April 1997 and you can see the warm pool at the sub-surface how warm it was.



Compare that max +4C with the current March 2014 graphic of +6C.

[Spin]

Umm, I think that 1997 had maximal temperature anomalies at +5 C, not +4 C as you wrote.

[Kingarabian]

For the first time in 2 months, Nino 3.4 is finally creeping into positive territory once again after crossing into 0.0C.

[cycloneye]

For the first time in 2 months, Nino 3.4 is finally creeping into positive territory once again after crossing into 0.0C.



http://img811.imageshack.us/img811/6286/hksc.png

In fact the latest update of Nino 3.4 has turned positive at +0.046. See the updated data at first post of thread.

[cycloneye]

Ntxw, now we are talking the best comparison possible of the warm pool at sub-surface with the past initial stages of El Nino events and 2014. March 2014 warm pool beats every past one.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, now we are talking the best comparison possible of the warm pool at sub-surface with the past initial stages of El Nino events and 2014. March 2014 warm pool beats every past one.

Raises an eyebrow for sure. Fast starts don't guaranty strong finish, but as you can see a strong start definitely leads to bigger Ninos. And when you start the strongest of the bunch your ceiling is much higher as the images show. Favorable or unfavorable weather the warm pool has denied it all, usually a sign the ocean has a will of it's own and it's ready for a global weather changing regime.

If we see 0C or close it tomorrow's update, this is near carbon copy of the events leading up to 1997.

[Yellow Evan]

Could we see 3-4C waters reach the surface?

What's the ceiling of this El Nino?

[Ntxw]

Could we see 3-4C waters reach the surface?

What's the ceiling of this El Nino?

It's possible and probably that at least 3-4C likely surfaces in a few months. 1997 El Nino saw 6C+ reach the surface. A sign that this thing is not weakening and continues to push is that it continues to warm as it moves up the thermocline. If you understand how ENSO works you will get an idea. The western Pacific waters is pushing and pushing east. 28C has gone from the far WPAC to now in the CPAC, the further east it pushes the stronger the Nino. If you look at the image below you can see the height rises in the equatorial big ocean meaning warming and pushing east. The anomalies are impressive but to understand the mechanics you need to look at actual SST's. During La Nina the opposite happens the warm waters is pushed back further and further west thus cooler anomalies.



This is the importance of WWB. They flip the normal trade winds a complete 180 and it just keeps pushing east the WPAC waters. Ceiling for this event is high, very good chance of a moderate event, a higher than usual chance of a "super" event or arguably 2C+ that tends to happen once per decade.

[Ptarmigan]

Looking at the sub-surface, it is warmer than 1997. This could be one of the strongest El Nino on record.