ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

#3781 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Mar 23, 2014 8:04 pm

I am trying to find a graphic of the 1982-83 early stage but so far looking for it has not been successful. If anyone finds one come and post it to also compare that warm pool at Sub-Surface with the 2014 one.

#3782 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Mar 23, 2014 8:44 pm

cycloneye wrote:I am trying to find a graphic of the 1982-83 early stage but so far looking for it has not been successful. If anyone finds one come and post it to also compare that warm pool at Sub-Surface with the 2014 one.

Well I found one even more revealing that includes the 1982-83 one.

#3783 Postby **Ntxw** » Sun Mar 23, 2014 8:53 pm

cycloneye wrote:
cycloneye wrote:I am trying to find a graphic of the 1982-83 early stage but so far looking for it has not been successful. If anyone finds one come and post it to also compare that warm pool at Sub-Surface with the 2014 one.

Well I found one even more revealing that includes the 1982-83 one.

Here is the tool I love using for ENSO, it's the ECMWF reanalysis. Very extensive and goes back much further than TAO. Month to month.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/oras4/reanalysis/sections/xzmaps/1m/

#3784 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Mar 23, 2014 9:01 pm

SST Anomalies graphics to compare now with this time in 1997 (last big El Nino year):

1997 Mar 21st:

2014 Mar 20th:

There is a lot of technical discussion in this thread so I wanted to put things in perspective for those looking for a quick overview of where we are at today compared with 1997 and what it looked like in 1997 during the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season where we can see the very warm waters in the Eastern Pacific near the equator:

Sep 9th, 1997:

Ptarmigan · #3785 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Sun Mar 23, 2014 9:34 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Well I found one even more revealing that includes the 1982-83 one.

Interesting. Where did you find it? The 1982-1983 does not look that impressive compared to 1997-1998 or right now.

CaliforniaResident · #3786 Postby **CaliforniaResident** » Sun Mar 23, 2014 9:39 pm

Is it safe to bank on this El Nino to end California's drought? There are some proposed water rationing measures in place due to the current drought here. Can we start promising the locals that next season will be much wetter than average yet or is there still a reasonable chance this El Nino could fizzle out and California's drought will continue for one more winter?

#3787 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Mar 23, 2014 10:00 pm

Interesting. Where did you find it? The 1982-1983 does not look that impressive compared to 1997-1998 or right now.

Found it on Twitter but later found this one that is better.

.

#3788 Postby **Ntxw** » Sun Mar 23, 2014 10:14 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:Interesting. Where did you find it? The 1982-1983 does not look that impressive compared to 1997-1998 or right now.

1982 was special

. We got our buoys and data because of this Nino! It created a lot of problems across the globe thus TAO/Triton was put in place to study future ENSO events.

This Nino was very blase or unimpressed early on. It was strong enough to have ONI on Nino threshold but only by a cusp and weakened early summer. Then came late summer and early fall it exploded into a super Nino.

#3789 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Mar 24, 2014 6:47 am

I wont make it (Medical appointment) until after the weekly CPC update of 3/24/13 is out later this morning so anyone who may get it can post. A hint of the update is already out as the graphic shows a big uptick at Nino 3.4. It was at -0.4C last Monday.

xtyphooncyclonex · #3790 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Mon Mar 24, 2014 8:17 am

Wow. Even Niño 3 is creeping towards positive levels quickly while Niño 1+2 is fluctuating but mostly at La Nina threshold.

xtyphooncyclonex · #3791 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Mon Mar 24, 2014 8:19 am

Waiting for the MJO to arrive in the Pacific. SOI now is a little up at -13.

#3792 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Mar 24, 2014 8:55 am

CPC's update this week has Nino 3.4 at +0.1C.

#3793 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Mar 24, 2014 1:14 pm

Ntxw wrote:CPC's update this week has Nino 3.4 at +0.1C.

Here is the update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

#3794 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Mar 24, 2014 3:32 pm

Here is a good graphic of information about the past El Nino events since 1957 to present. The big question is where will the 2014 El Nino will be in that graphic when it updates after this event is over. Anyone wants to guess the maximum strength of the 2014 event?

I will go with +2.1C

Hurricane Jed · #3795 Postby **Hurricane Jed** » Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:12 pm

+2.3C. You know Cycloneye, you could make this a poll like the season numbers poll.

#3796 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:54 pm

So we're ahead of 1997 now with that +0.1C reading.

#3797 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Mar 24, 2014 5:01 pm

I could see this peaking at anywhere from 1.5C to 2.5C.

Cyclenall · #3798 Postby **Cyclenall** » Mon Mar 24, 2014 5:37 pm

At +0.1ºC? Ugh! Kiss the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season goodbye, the interest in that basin will be at an all time low similar to the early 1980s. Now that the beans have been spilled on Andrew, there is no more "It only takes one" lol. Sure it'll be awesome to see April storms in the Epac (this is tongue in cheek) but still...

The theory about an El Nino fixing the stability problem in the Atlantic in my eyes might not do it this year, therefore I might throw in the towel months before it starts.

Kingarabian wrote:So we're ahead of 1997 now with that +0.1C reading.

What is the comparison?

Hammy · #3799 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Mar 24, 2014 5:43 pm

I've noticed a westward expansion of the cool pool off of South America over the last week

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomp.3.24.2014.gif
compared to last week
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomp.3.17.2014.gif

#3800 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Mar 24, 2014 5:47 pm

Hurricane Jed wrote:+2.3C. You know Cycloneye, you could make this a poll like the season numbers poll.

Is now up.

ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

Re: ENSO: Large warm pool at sub-surface (Max temp at +6C)

Re: ENSO: Large warm pool at sub-surface (Max temp at +6C)

Re: ENSO: Large warm pool at sub-surface (Max temp at +6C)

Re: ENSO: Large warm pool at sub-surface (Max temp at +6C)

Re: ENSO: Large warm pool at sub-surface (Max temp at +6C)

Re: ENSO: Large warm pool at sub-surface (Max temp at +6C)

Re: ENSO: Large warm pool at sub-surface (Max temp at +6C)

Re: ENSO: Large warm pool at sub-surface (Max temp at +6C)

Re:

Re: ENSO: CPC 3/24/14 update=Nino 3.4 up to +0.1C

I wanted a La Nina

Re: ENSO: CPC 3/24/14 update=Nino 3.4 up to +0.1C

Re:

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