How strong the 2014 El Nino will be at peak?
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- cycloneye
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How strong the 2014 El Nino will be at peak?
A good poll to sample the members about the most important topic weatherwise that will make the most headlines and discussion in the weather community. Let's see what the members think this upcoming El Nino will be at it's peak. Poll will close on April 30 at 6:47 pm EDT.
I say +2.1C
I say +2.1C
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Re: How strong the 2014 El Nino may be at peak?
My vote is +1.9C
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- cycloneye
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Re: How strong the 2014 El Nino may be at peak?
Ntxw wrote:My vote is +1.9C
You vote was erased because I left out one option (+1.2C) and when that happens the poll erases it's votes. So vote again.
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I'm going with +2.5 and above since the current signs already indicate something brewing in the Pacific related to El Niño which may make it turn out to be as strong as, if not, stronger than 1997, in my opinion.
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Re: How strong the 2014 El Nino may be at peak?
I hope it won't be as bad as 82-83 and 97-98. But it looks like it's heading that way. I vote for +1.8C...but if something comes up in April (strong typhoon a la STY Isa) that will produce significant WWB in the Pacific, I'll have to raise that to +2.5C
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Re: How strong the 2014 El Nino may be at peak?
dexterlabio wrote:I hope it won't be as bad as 82-83 and 97-98. But it looks like it's heading that way. I vote for +1.8C...but if something comes up in April (strong typhoon a la STY Isa) that will produce significant WWB in the Pacific, I'll have to raise that to +2.5C
Am I the only one rooting for a record setting El Nino? The stronger, the better! California gets so little weather while the Eastern U.S. gets so much weather. El Nino makes the winters milder in the Northeast and Midwest and reducing hurricane risk in the Southeast while giving California some actual rain. It's the Robin Hood of weather.
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Re: How strong the 2014 El Nino may be at peak?
CaliforniaResident wrote:Am I the only one rooting for a record setting El Nino? The stronger, the better! California gets so little weather while the Eastern U.S. gets so much weather. El Nino makes the winters milder in the Northeast and Midwest and reducing hurricane risk in the Southeast while giving California some actual rain. It's the Robin Hood of weather.
LOL it depends where you're at. If I return to San Francisco before winter I may be pleased with this El Nino. But if we're talking about its potential effects in Southeast Asia, it is literally "hell". There are indigenous people in some regions who heavily rely on nature, and extreme weather phenomenon like the 1997 EN will put them in danger.
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Re: How strong the 2014 El Nino may be at peak?
I voted 2.5 and we are already 0.1 ahead of 1997!
I agree with many that all eyes will be on the Western Pacific like what we saw in April 1997 in Super Typhoon Isa as we enter april...
Strong Typhoon = More Westerly Wind Burst = Strong El Nino...
I agree with many that all eyes will be on the Western Pacific like what we saw in April 1997 in Super Typhoon Isa as we enter april...
Strong Typhoon = More Westerly Wind Burst = Strong El Nino...
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: How strong the 2014 El Nino may be at peak?
CaliforniaResident wrote:dexterlabio wrote:I hope it won't be as bad as 82-83 and 97-98. But it looks like it's heading that way. I vote for +1.8C...but if something comes up in April (strong typhoon a la STY Isa) that will produce significant WWB in the Pacific, I'll have to raise that to +2.5C
Am I the only one rooting for a record setting El Nino? The stronger, the better! California gets so little weather while the Eastern U.S. gets so much weather. El Nino makes the winters milder in the Northeast and Midwest and reducing hurricane risk in the Southeast while giving California some actual rain. It's the Robin Hood of weather.
I would not root for super El Nino's. Even in California, floods can cause devastation, and large El Nino's cause droughts among Asia and flooding in South America. I'm hoping this one peaks between 1 to 2C, as I get some rain and my basin gets storms but the global effects won't be as extreme.
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Re: How strong the 2014 El Nino may be at peak?
Going to go with a 1.7, No Scientific reasoning, just I like the number 7
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Re: How strong the 2014 El Nino may be at peak?
2.0 ... uneducated guess.
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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+2.4°C because the warm pool at the subsurface is warmer than 1997, the SST's are warmer than of 1997. But because the westerlies aren't that strong, that is why I voted lower than 1997.
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