#97 Postby dhweather » Thu Mar 27, 2014 12:10 pm
From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Thursday, 27 March 2014 11:28 CDT
Good morning,
A two-day period of unsettled weather is expected today and Friday. The overall severe weather threat this afternoon and evening and again on Friday afternoon and evening is limited. Most areas across north and central Texas will not experience thunderstorms, but any storms that do develop will have the potential to be severe with large hail and damaging winds.
The attached presentation gives additional details on the location of the areas that may be affected. In general, the greatest threat of severe thunderstorms both days will be in eastern areas of north and central Texas.
BOTTOM LINE: Emergency Managers, elected officials, and other public safety personnel in north and central Texas should be prepared for the potential of isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and again on Friday afternoon and evening. The main area of concern this afternoon and evening will be east of Interstate 35, and large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats. Decision makers west of I-35 also need to be prepared for elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. Monitor our web page or other sources of weather information for updates through Friday.
LOCATIONS AND TIMING: For this afternoon and evening, the severe weather threat is along and east of a line from Sherman-Dallas-Waco-Killeen. For Friday afternoon and evening, the threat areas is generally along and east of a line from Paris-Corsicana-Waco-Temple. The most likely time frame for strong to severe thunderstorms will be 2 pm through 10 pm both days.
IMPACTS: Hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts over 60 mph will be the primary impacts.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: For today, low to moderate confidence exists in the development of thunderstorms. If storms DO form this afternoon, there is moderate confidence that some of them will be severe. There is overall low confidence on the severe weather potential on Friday.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There are two primary alternate scenarios in the forecast for this afternoon. The first is that conditions will remain unfavorable for thunderstorm development and few or no storms develop across north or central Texas. The second scenario is that the dryline stalls west of our current forecast location and one or two severe thunderstorms develop west of Interstate 35. On Friday, the location of the cold front and the timing of thunderstorm development create a situation with numerous alternate scenarios.
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