ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[gigabite]

The image above shows the latitude
of the moon at aphelion.



The image above shows the a relationship
between the latitude of the moon at
aphelion and the SOI.

[Ptarmigan]

1982 was the fastest intensifying. It was supposed to be a weak El Nino, but it turned out to be one of the strongest on record. The warm pool was not yet properly developed but it surprisingly exploded!

1982-1983 is what brought El Nino to the forefront. National Geographic had an article about that El Nino.

[Ntxw]

No drastic jump like last week, but up continues. Today's update as the last one of March Nino 3.4 is +0.2C. The most noticeable rise this week came from Nino 3 to +0.4C.

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update of 3/31/14 has no big change to Nino 3.4 as it is up to +0.2C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Actually, the Nino 1+2 region is warmer, now at -0.4 and away from La Nina threshold.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

+0.7 C is already Nino threshold, did we ever surpass March 31, 1997?

[Ntxw]

+0.7 C is already Nino threshold, did we ever surpass March 31, 1997?

There isn't a cpc archived data back then that I can find. Using ENSO anomalies centered on the same dates (last week was centered on Weds 26th) the final week of March in 1997 had a reading of -0.1C, It was a blip down from the week centered on the week of 19th of +0.1C before that. First week of April saw 0.0C and to get to +0.2C where we stand that would be the second week of April 1997 centered on the 9th.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

+0.7 C is already Nino threshold, did we ever surpass March 31, 1997?

There isn't a cpc archived data back then that I can find. Using ENSO anomalies centered on the same dates (last week was centered on Weds 26th) the final week of March in 1997 had a reading of -0.1C, It was a blip down from the week centered on the week of 19th of +0.1C before that. First week of April saw 0.0C and to get to +0.2C where we stand that would be the second week of April 1997 centered on the 9th.

Wow! We're ahead in all Nino regions.
Nino 4:
+0.7C [actually +0.8C]
3.4:
+0.2C
3:
+0.3C
1+2:
-0.7C [but actually, it is currently -0.4C]
I'm probably not sure with Nino 1+2 though.

IMO, we'll have a good chance of getting a strong El Nino this year. Currently, this subsurface warm pool is the strongest of all time at this time of year and we have unusually high anomalies. We even surpassed 1997 in some regions. This may also intensify really fast like 1982 which was weak, but became 2nd strongest. We were previously cool neutral [even near La Nina] earlier this year. The effects of the warm pool underneath may be starting and could expand and intensify.

[cycloneye]

30 day SOI continues to be well below the -8 threshold. It turned negative on March 1rst.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[xtyphooncyclonex]

30 day SOI continues to be well below the -8 threshold. It turned negative on March 1rst.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

It has been steady below -10 in the past few weeks.

[Ntxw]

IMO, we'll have a good chance of getting a strong El Nino this year. Currently, this subsurface warm pool is the strongest of all time at this time of year and we have unusually high anomalies. We even surpassed 1997 in some regions. This may also intensify really fast like 1982 which was weak, but became 2nd strongest. We were previously cool neutral [even near La Nina] earlier this year. The effects of the warm pool underneath may be starting and could expand and intensify.

To add, it's becoming increasingly more unlikely we will get a modoki (in a sense that you have cool neutral to La Nina like anomalies to the east) like 2004. It's most likely it will be a traditional El Nino that transitions into a basin wide event. Perhaps towards it's later life the basin wide event could morph into a modoki event that has all warm anomalies but strongest warmth in 3.4 instead of 3 and 1+2. But as of right now, the sub-surface does not support the cold east warm west. If anything we may see 4 try to cool and 3.4 and 3/1+2 heat up.

To get a 2004 style modoki you need a substantial cold pool east of 160W which does not exist. But as in a post before, it may not matter at this point as warmth is overtaking all regions below the surface so the values lies in the strength of Nino rather than location.





Nino 1+2 is going to warm very rapidly the next month.

[Ntxw]

And here is the composite SST's of April 1997 in comparison to now. Don't take value in the daily's but the trend, still the best analog to end March and start April for ENSO.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

IMO, we'll have a good chance of getting a strong El Nino this year. Currently, this subsurface warm pool is the strongest of all time at this time of year and we have unusually high anomalies. We even surpassed 1997 in some regions. This may also intensify really fast like 1982 which was weak, but became 2nd strongest. We were previously cool neutral [even near La Nina] earlier this year. The effects of the warm pool underneath may be starting and could expand and intensify.

To add, it's becoming increasingly more unlikely we will get a modoki (in a sense that you have cool neutral to La Nina like anomalies to the east) like 2004. It's most likely it will be a traditional El Nino that transitions into a basin wide event. Perhaps towards it's later life the basin wide event could morph into a modoki event that has all warm anomalies but strongest warmth in 3.4 instead of 3 and 1+2. But as of right now, the sub-surface does not support the cold east warm west. If anything we may see 4 try to cool and 3.4 and 3/1+2 heat up.

To get a 2004 style modoki you need a substantial cold pool east of 160W which does not exist. But as in a post before, it may not matter at this point as warmth is overtaking all regions below the surface so the values lies in the strength of Nino rather than location.

http://i57.tinypic.com/17wjmv.gif

http://i58.tinypic.com/f1xgz9.gif

Nino 1+2 is going to warm very rapidly the next month.

And, I also see very warm anomalies near the surface at around 90W and if it already reaches the surface, we will DEFINITELY get a traditional one this year. Joe Bastardi was thinking of a Modoki El Nino for some reason which actually seems unlikely. Yes, you're spot on about Nino 1+2 warming very rapidly. It previously was -1.5C but now, it is -0.4C. Then, anytime on Mid-April, the cool anomalies will die down and will be replaced by those very warm anomalies and may be a repeat of 1997.

[stormkite]

http://www.nationalgeographic.com/elnino/mainpage2.html

[wxman57]

I'm not saying that this summer's El Nino will rival 1997, but it is interesting to plot a comparison of 1997 and this year's Nino 3.4 temperatures (below). I'll keep adding to the graphic with each week's observation. I would suspect that temps in the Nino 1-2 regions will be on the way up as sub-surface warmer water spreads east, which would mean a "regular" El Nino this year.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Even the sea surface temperatures [SST's] are starting to mimic during early April of 1997. Previously anomalies are rapidly warming up and being more like during the peak of the hurricane/typhoon season.

The upcoming MJO may also favor some development in the West Pacific, which will bring some Westerly Wind Burst and will fuel development for El Nino this year.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Very interesting graphic on the new moon relationship with El nino and La nina. I think i had a post earlier asking what could be the reason for the onset of an El nino or a La nina. Thanks a ton!

[gigabite]

Very interesting graphic on the new moon relationship with El nino and La nina. I think i had a post earlier asking what could be the reason for the onset of an El nino or a La nina. Thanks a ton!

The moon's latitude is a mechanism involved, but solar variability can play a role also. These are entities that are weak players that have a global effect. The key word is mechanism which is different role than that of weather. Weather actually drives this particular anomaly.

[Ntxw]

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/823/fpey.jpg

The image above shows the latitude
of the moon at aphelion.

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/209/elninolatap.jpg

The image above shows the a relationship
between the latitude of the moon at
aphelion and the SOI.

Nice call btw, 8.2 prelim earthquake off Chile, ontop of the all the others around the Pacific. I wonder if ENSO has any effects as well on quakes.

[Ptarmigan]

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/823/fpey.jpg

The image above shows the latitude
of the moon at aphelion.

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/209/elninolatap.jpg

The image above shows the a relationship
between the latitude of the moon at
aphelion and the SOI.

Interesting. Where can I get the Moon data?