SPAC: INVEST 98P

[stormkite]

98P INVEST 140401 0000 26.4S 167.4W SHEM 15 1010


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

Humm don't have the appearance of a 15 knot invest.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[

[wxman57]

It appears to be a 40-45 kt TS based on an ASCAT pass this afternoon which caught the western half of the storm:

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_TEST/zooms/WMBds8.png

[Alyono]

clear TC. Beyond a reasonable doubt. Not sure what JT is looking at given they do not even have it listed as a suspect area

[stormkite]

98P INVEST 140401 0600 26.6S 166.1W SHEM 45 988

No official name so far. They got half right this time.

[euro6208]

It appears to be a 40-45 kt TS based on an ASCAT pass this afternoon which caught the western half of the storm:

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_TEST/zooms/WMBds8.png

98P INVEST 140401 0600 26.6S 166.1W SHEM 45 988

No official name so far. They got half right this time.

interesting that JT saying it's subtropical...

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.6S 167.4W,
APPROXIMATELY 752 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED AND
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. RECENT ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM WITH COOL DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM
THE NORTH. A 312102Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS 45 TO 50 KNOT WINDS
IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND NORTH OF POLAR JET WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE LLCC IN A STRONG (30+ KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. BASED ON THIS DATA, THIS SYSTEM IS
CLASSIFIED AS SUBTROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 45 TO 50 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 988 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[jaguarjace]

IR color enhanced loop

[stormkite]

Looks to have warm core appearance on this sat-pic. Also the wind field on the ascat posted above has the strongest winds at the core not further away from the core as typical subtropical cyclones do.

98P INVEST 140402 0000 29.5S 164.8W SHEM 45 989

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 28.6S
164.3W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 29.5S 164.8W, APPROXIMATELY 965 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH THE BULK OF
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT SHOWS AN ISOLATED SYSTEM SLOWLY GAINING ORGANIZATION
AND SYMMETRY FUELED BY INTERMITTENT CHANNELS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS POLEWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG (30+
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 24 DEGREES CELSIUS. AMSU TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS
SECTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARM SURFACE ANOMALY PROBABLY DUE TO
FRONTAL PROCESSES AS WELL AS A WARM UPPER LEVEL ANOMALY. BASED ON
ANALYSIS, THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS SUBTROPICAL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 TO 50 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 988 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[stormkite]

It appears to be a 40-45 kt TS based on an ASCAT pass this afternoon which caught the western half of the storm:

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_TEST/zooms/WMBds8.png

TXPS28 KNES 011830
TCSWSP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98P)

B. 01/1800Z

C. 28.5S

D. 165.1W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/TMI/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...DT=3.5 BBASED ON .9 BANDING ON LOG10 SPIRAL. PT=3.5. MET
IS UNDEFINED. FT IS BASED ON DT. SYSTEM HAS COMPLETED TRANSITION FROM
A SUBTROPICAL STORM.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

01/1452Z 28.0S 165.5W TMI
01/1516Z 28.1S 165.3W SSMIS
01/1611Z 28.2S 165.3W SSMIS


...SCHWARTZ
1/4/14

01 Apr 2014 - 98P - 1800 UTC
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/bulletins.html

wxman57 got it right the first time.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 31.8S
165.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 35.0S 170.5W, APPROXIMATELY 725 NM EAST
OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND. THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET, IS LOCATED UNDER A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
LOW AND IS OVER COLD SST (NEAR 21C). ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED GALE-FORCE WINDS (40 TO 45 KNOTS) DUE TO THE STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT AND WEAK BAROCLINICITY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE CLOUD SYSTEM (DIAMETER 600 TO 700
NM) WITH A FRONTAL SIGNATURE. A 040107Z NOAA-19 IMAGE DEPICTS
LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. RECENT AMSU
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARM
SURFACE ANOMALY PROBABLY DUE TO FRONTAL PROCESSES AS WELL AS A WARM,
BROAD MID-LEVEL ANOMALY. THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM; HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN GALE FORCE WINDS AS IT TRACKS WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NEW ZEALAND OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 TO 45 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 988 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[jaguarjace]

Close to New Zealand.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 36.2S
178.4W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 36.7S 180.0W, APPROXIMATELY 254 NM EAST
OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
061017ZZ METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS LIMITED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED CIRCULATION CENTER. RECENT AMSU
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARM
SURFACE ANOMALY PROBABLY DUE TO FRONTAL PROCESSES AS WELL AS A WARM,
BROAD MID-LEVEL ANOMALY. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND UNDER A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL LOW. THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A WARM-CORE CYCLONE;
HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN GALE
FORCE WINDS AS IT TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NEW ZEALAND OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.