Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
322 PM AST THU MAR 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LONG WAVE/POLAR TROUGH CONTINUED TO EXIT THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...WHILE LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE PERSISTENT MID
TO UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER THE REGION IN RECENT
DAYS...WHILE IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARDS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RIDGE ALOFT
WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD AND REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY SURFACE FRONT
WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...TO JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA
WHERE IT HAS BEGUN TO STALL AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SHEARED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS QUICKLY PASSED ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS EARLIER IN THE DAY...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND MOST OF CLOUDINESS HAD DIMINISHED LEAVING LITTLE OR NO SHOWERS OVER
LAND. THE PREVAILING WINDS BECAME MORE EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHEAST AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED SHEAR LINE...IS EXPECTED TO LINGER NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WINDS. THE TRADES WILL EVENTUALLY BRING ADDITIONAL PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THE SHEAR LINE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER AN INDUCED PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL LEAD TO SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AND A BRIEF
WIND SURGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
HOWEVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA AND
AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING AFTER
28/12Z...WITH WINDS AT 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO OVER 20 KNOTS. PASSING
SHRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FROM THE
EAST...CAUSING CEILINGS AT ABOUT FL060.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL INVADES THE LOCAL WATERS. FOR
THIS REASON A HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT
LATER TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND
MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ISSUED BY THE WFO
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 85 / 40 40 30 30
STT 76 86 75 85 / 40 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move quick thru PR and VI today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST FRI MAR 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STATIONARY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY...A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING FRAGMENTS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE ISLANDS TODAY. A FEW SHORT-WAVE
TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY INDICATED FRAGMENTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. THE BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION HAS FAVORED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THE GENERATION OF TRADE
WIND SHOWERS IN THE ISLAND`S VICINITY SINCE MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS HAVE
INCREASED IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...AFFECTING MAINLY THE EAST
AND NORTH PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS FAIRLY STRONG STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE ISLANDS. FOR SATURDAY...A FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED AGAIN AS LOW MOISTURE CONTENT WILL LIMIT
THE SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF A FEW SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS
THE AREA. THESE SUCCESSIVE SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WEAKENING THE TRADE WINDS CAP... ALLOWING
FOR DEEPER INSTABILITY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA AND AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
AT 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO OVER 20 KNOTS. PASSING SHRA EXPECTED THIS MORNING
WITH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST...CAUSING CEILINGS AT ABOUT
FL020-FL050.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOY OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE SHOWING A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SWELL ACTION ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.
WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE INCREASED TO 10-11 FEET IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS THAT ARE AFFECTING THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
SINCE MIDNIGHT. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE LARGE BREAKING WAVES SURGING
UPON THE SHORE. ALSO...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOW AREAS
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A COASTAL FLOODING
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH FACING COASTLINES
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN USVI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 75 / 40 20 20 10
STT 85 78 85 77 / 40 20 20 30

[msbee]

Good morning Caribbean friends
I'm bacck!
I was off island for a few months "enjoying" the cold snowy Northeast USA winter! NOT!
I'll be traveling back and forth for awhile.
It's good to be back on the rock though.
The weather changed last night and we got a few short squalls.. The island needs rain so bring it on!
The surf is up as you can see from this web cam . Looking carefully you can see sand on the road as waves crashed over the road early this morning
http://sunsetsxm.com/index.php/webcam

Barbara

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST FRI MAR 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUED ACROSS
THE REGION BUT WILL SLIGHTLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A
POLAR TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY STRONG
LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND THIS IN TURN IS INDUCING STRONG EAST NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE PREVAILING EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
ADVECTION OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THEN LATER SHIFT TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS
OF THE ISLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PARTS OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF INTERVALS OF PASSING CLOUDS AND A
FEW SHOWERS...BUT DO NOT EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS...AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE MOVING QUICKLY
ACROSS THE ISLANDS STEERED BY THE TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND LOOSENS IT HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. IN
THE MEANTIME THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ENHANCED TRADE WIND SHOWERS
AND STREAMER LIKE CONVECTION. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
SLIGHT EROSION OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION PROPAGATION EASTWARD
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS EXPECTED SCENARIO PLUS THE SUBTLE INCREASE
IN SHALLOW TRADE WIND MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS EACH
DAY. THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AND FAIR AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. OVERALL PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TYPICAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA AND
AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AT AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY UNTIL 28/23Z...DECREASING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PASSING SHRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT CAUSING
VCSH. WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 29/12Z FROM THE EAST TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...AS NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS CONTINUED TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS
AND PASSAGES. RECENT DATA FROM BUOY 41053 JUST NORTH OF SAN JUAN REPORTED
WAVE HEIGHTS TO BE AS HIGH AS 13 FEET. HOWEVER...SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED
SLIGHTLY AND WERE CURRENTLY BETWEEN 9 AND 10 FEET... WHICH IS STILL
HAZARDOUS. BREAKING WAVES IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET CONTINUED TO OCCUR
AND COASTAL FLOODING HAD BEEN REPORTED EARLIER. SMALL CRAFT...HIGH
SURF...AND COASTAL FLOODING ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER AND COASTAL
HAZARD MESSAGES ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 75 86 / 20 20 10 20
STT 78 85 77 85 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning Caribbean friends
I'm bacck!
I was off island for a few months "enjoying" the cold snowy Northeast USA winter! NOT!
I'll be traveling back and forth for awhile.
It's good to be back on the rock though.
The weather changed last night and we got a few short squalls.. The island needs rain so bring it on!
The surf is up as you can see from this web cam . Looking carefully you can see sand on the road as waves crashed over the road early this morning
http://sunsetsxm.com/index.php/webcam

Barbara

Glad to see you back in the tropics area.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers with plenty of sun will dominate today in PR and VI.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
551 AM AST SAT MAR 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
MAINTAINS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BRISK
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. A FEW PERTURBATIONS ALOFT
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCREASING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING
THE NORTH CENTRAL...EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
SINCE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS
SHOW A DRIER AIRMASS UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER AGAIN TONIGHT AS ANOTHER GROUP OF
TRADE WIND SHOWERS MOVE CLOSER TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE NOCTURNAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR THE WINDWARD AREAS. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THE PASSAGE OF A FEW
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE AREA. THESE SUCCESSIVE PERTURBATIONS
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE INSTABILITY...WEAKENING THE TRADE WINDS
CAP...ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH TO THE REGION
THURSDAY/FRIDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 29/22Z. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER TJMZ
AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...THE LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELLS HAVE PEAKED
AND NOW ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. LOCAL BUOYS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SLOWLY
DECREASE IN WAVE HEIGHT SINCE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WAVE HEIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ARE STILL RANGING BETWEEN 8-11 FEET AT
14-16 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH...THE OVERALL WAVE HEIGHT HAVE SUBSIDED
SLIGHTLY...LARGE BREAKING WAVE HEIGHT OF 10-15 FEET OR HIGHER WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG RIP CURRENTS...MINOR BEACH EROSION AND
LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING. AS A RESULT...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FACING
COASTLINES OF PR...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE NORTHERN USVI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 85 73 / 30 30 30 20
STT 85 74 84 75 / 20 30 30 30

[Gustywind]

Good morning Caribbean friends
I'm bacck!
I was off island for a few months "enjoying" the cold snowy Northeast USA winter! NOT!
I'll be traveling back and forth for awhile.
It's good to be back on the rock though.
The weather changed last night and we got a few short squalls.. The island needs rain so bring it on!
The surf is up as you can see from this web cam . Looking carefully you can see sand on the road as waves crashed over the road early this morning
http://sunsetsxm.com/index.php/webcam

Barbara

Glad to see you back in the tropics area.

Hi Barbara, welcome to our tent !

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST SAT MAR 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPROACHING
THE LOCAL AREA BUT WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MONDAY. A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WILL CROSS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POLAR
JET WILL THEN CROSS OVER ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON SATURDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL BE FORCED
WEST AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST WHEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS MOVES IN TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY
INDUCING WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WEAKLY TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS
MORNING SPREAD TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND SEVERAL HEAVY SHOWERS WERE FORMING OVER MARICAO AND
YAUCO AT THIS WRITING. TRADE WIND FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE AREA AND FLOW AT THE SURFACE BECOMES MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY. WHEN THE SUCCEEDING HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...COINCIDING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE POLAR JET. THIS SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN GRADUALLY SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE FCST PD. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ. VCSH ACROSS
TJSJ...TIST AND TISX. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 15 TO
20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...SWELL ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST
AND WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA LATE TOMORROW. SOME
SWELL ARE LIKELY TO BE GENERATED BY THE LOW MOVING INTO THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO KEEP SEAS 4 FEET OR BETTER. HIGHER SWELL ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT WINDS AROUND THE GENERATING LOW WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG AND SWELL ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 7 FEET BY NEXT
FRIDAY. IN THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK...CURRENTLY THE GFS IS FORECASTING
A VERY STRONG LOW SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS STRONG WAVE GENERATOR IN
THE SAME PLACE OFFSHORE FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY IN
THE SECOND WEEK OF APRIL THAT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH
SURF LATER THAT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 72 87 / 30 30 20 20
STT 75 84 75 84 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR and adjacent islands today as a trough lingers nearby.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST SUN MAR 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EAST COAST OF U.S. WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE AZORES HIGH
FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING THE TRADE WINDS TO DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH TO THE LOCAL AREA
BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A CYCLONIC ROTATION
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW NORTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN THE PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LOW A FEW
UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE STREAMING OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
REGION. THIS PERTURBATIONS ALOFT HAVE INCREASED THE INSTABILITY ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE ISLAND`S VICINITY. MOST OF THE
SHOWERS DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS HAVE REMAINED OVER THE SURROUNDING WATER
OF PR AND USVI...HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS AFFECTED THE COASTAL SECTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OPERATIONAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THIS RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE AND MOIST PATTERN WILL BRING SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS TODAY AND MONDAY.
FOR TUESDAY...OVERALL MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION...
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL DECREASE ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN PR...RESULTING IN SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THEN...A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS BY
MID-WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWER TO THE LOCAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 30/22Z. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER TJMZ
AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT THE SWELL HAVE BEEN
SUBSIDING OVER THE LAST 12-18 HOURS. WAVE HEIGHTS THIS MORNING ARE
RANGING BETWEEN 5-6 FEET IN ALL THE NEARSHORE BUOYS. IN CONTRAST...
BUOY 41043...180 NM NORTH OF SAN JUAN IS STILL SHOWING 9-10 FEET.
THIS LARGE WAVES AT BUOY 41043 ARE THE COMBINATION OF A DECAY NNW
SWELL AND LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION
AND THE MODEL PROGNOSIS...WE CANCELLED THE ALL THE SCA...EXCEPT
THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC...AMZ710...IN CASE THAT SOME WAVES
HIGHER THAN 7 FEET ARE LINGERING IN THIS MARINE ZONE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 74 / 30 20 20 10
STT 84 74 82 75 / 50 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
317 PM AST SUN MAR 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAKENING RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE SUB TROPICAL JET WILL FORM OVER THE AREA
ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH PASSAGE. IT WILL BE JOINED BY THE
POLAR JET BEFORE A SECOND TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...THE WEAK CUT-OFF LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN
AND JOIN THE FLOW FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST. A BROAD TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND WILL STALL OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE IS FOUND AT MID
LEVELS TILL FRIDAY THEN CONDITIONS ARE DRIER SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MODERATELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS WORKING ITS
WAY NORTHEAST FROM NEW JERSEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA ON TUESDAY...GRADUALLY
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL RE-GENERATE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
AND BRING AREAS OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WINDS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND
THIS AFTERNOON`S CONVECTION GREW MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL HILLS OF
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. THIS CONVECTION WILL DIE A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE
IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT BUT
RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS.
ALTHOUGH THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...IT WILL SAG INTO OR JUST TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FROM THE NORTH LEAVING SHOWERS AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THAT CONVERGING
UPPER LEVEL JETS AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BUT BROAD TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN GENERALLY CLOUDY AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO KEEP
SHOWERS OVER THE USUAL AREAS. WINDS WILL GAIN A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO RECEDE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND MODEST MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THRU 31/17Z. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ MAINLY TIL 30/23Z. LLVL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
SHIFTING TO THE SE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE SUBSIDING AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT. 7 FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
FRIDAY AS FETCH AROUND A DEPARTING LOW MENTIONED ABOVE ALIGNS WITH
THE LOCAL AREA.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 74 86 / 20 20 10 20
STT 74 83 75 84 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly good weather will prevail today in PR and VI with only a few showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST MON MAR 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS RIDGE
ALOFT MIGRATES EAST. WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME UNSTABLE
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DOMINATES THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE
WATERS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ALONG COASTAL AREAS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL TODAY AS RIDGE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...UNDER THE
PREVAILING EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS CANT BE RULED OUT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN ADDITION...DIMINISHING TRADES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...AS
RIDGE ALOFT MIGRATES EAST. THIS WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING.
THEREFORE...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED PASSING SHRA CAUSING SOME
VCSH. AFTERNOON SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS W-NW PR COULD CAUSE MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR. ISOLATED PASSING SHRA ELSEWHERE. SFC WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KT AFTER 21/13Z MAINLY FROM THE ESE WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE....SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SWELLS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. A NEW GROUP OF NNW SWELL WILL REACH THE
AREA WED WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 75 / 20 10 30 30
STT 85 74 85 74 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST MON MAR 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL INTERIOR OF PR AND EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE/NO FLOODING.

COLD FRONT PLAINLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE ABOUT 375 NM NW OF PR AND
STILL MOVING SOUTHEAST 10 MPH. MODELS SHOW IT BECOMING PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW AT INCREASING DEPTH AND THEREBY STALLING IT AT LEAST
BY THIS EVENING. REMNANTS WILL LIKELY DRAG ACROSS PR WED NIGHT/THU.
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESULT AS THE PLUME FROM THE WEST
EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO HERE. SUBTROPICAL JET ALSO SWINGS BY
WITH 250 MB TROUGH ON TUE EVE. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO ENHANCE
FROM THE JET WOULD THINK THE MOST LIKELY TIME WOULD BE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET ON TUE BUT ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIE OFF BEFORE THAT.
SHOWERS THEN WILL HAVE LITTLE FLOW BELOW 20 KFT (MOVING SLOWLY)
AND MAY RAIN THEMSELVES OUT BEFORE HAVING OPPORTUNITY TO RECEIVE
VENTING FROM THE JET. 12Z GFS SHOW UNFAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WED/THU
BUT WILL WATCH THIS AS MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE CRITICAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR OR BRIEF IFR POSBL WEST PR INCL TJMZ/TJBQ THIS
AFT BUT GENERALLY VFR OTHW...FEW OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLO FL150 VRBL
12 KT OR LESS THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NO
MORE THAN 5 FT/16 KT. SWELL TRAIN BEHIND THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE
WILL ARRIVE LATE THU BUT FAR LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN THE EVENT LAST
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 85 / 10 30 30 40
STT 74 85 74 85 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Afternoon showers are expected in interior PR today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
441 AM AST TUE APR 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS NOTED
OVER LOCAL WATERS...THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG COASTAL AREAS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

AN APPROACHING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TO RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON...FOR TODAY MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PUERTO RICO...BUT SHIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS STEERING WINDS STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
MORE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH THROUGH TIME. STORMS WILL BE
VERY SLOW MOVERS TODAY DUE TO A WEAK STEERING FLOW. LATE EVENING
AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS STILL EXPECTED
DURING TUE-FRI PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. THEREFORE...OVERALL FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH
01/15Z WITH ONLY ISOLATED PASSING SHRA CAUSING VCSH. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR COULD CAUSE MVFR CONDS ACROSS
TJBQ AND TJMZ AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AFTER 01/16Z...TEMPO WITHHELD FROM TAF...VCSH/VCTS INSTEAD
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON PRECISE LOCATION OF TSRA...ISOLD/SCT PASSING
SHRA ELSEWHERE. SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KT AFTER 01/13Z MAINLY FROM THE
ESE WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...STRONGER WINDS NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT BUILDING 6-8 FT THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY IN NNW
SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 85 74 / 20 30 30 40
STT 84 74 84 75 / 20 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
244 PM AST TUE APR 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CONTINUED EROSION OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE BROAD POLAR TROUGH DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION AND
JET SEGMENT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...
WHICH IS TO EVENTUALLY SET UP AND LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STALL AND DISSIPATE
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE TRAILING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD AND SPREAD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE MEANTIME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL...THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AND DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASE LOCAL SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL AFFLUENCE PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH NW OF REGION
WILL ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF PUERTO RICO LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THEREFORE SHOWERS AND MOSTLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
NOT MUCH STEERING SO ACTIVITY MAY LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING...
THEN EVENTUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE COASTAL AREAS BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF MOISTURE STILL
EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SETTLING NORTH OF THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS IN TURN IS TO SET UP AND INDUCE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO HELP CREATE
UNSTABLE AND MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT FRONTAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR OVERALL INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A SOMEWHAT
WETTER WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LATEST GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST MOST ACTIVE AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL...DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY DVLPG INTERIOR PR MTNS TO SPRD SPCLY
CNTRL TO W INTERIOR PR WI OBSCD MTNS...MAY DRIFT TO TJMZ/TJBQ/TJSJ
BUT MORE LIKELY REMAIN VCSH/VCTS. OTHW ISOLD/SCT SHRA THRU TONITE
THEN REPEAT SHRA/TSRA WED AFT. WIND VRBL 10 KT OR LESS THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...WIND ARE TO REMAIN AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS THRU TONITE. SEAS
HOWEVER ARE FORECAST TO REACH 6 FT OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO GRADUAL ARRIVAL OF A NORTHERLY SWELL.
ELSEWHERE 3 TO 5 FT THRU AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL AND UPDATED
INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 84 / 30 30 40 40
STT 75 85 74 85 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Afternoon showers will fall in interior PR today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 AM AST WED APR 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
STALLED AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE WEST...CAUSING
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT
WEATHER PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FOR THE REST OF THE
WORKWEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS OVER LAND AREAS.
UPPER TROUGH WILL CAUSE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT...WHICH WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...WILL HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
AND TO THE SOUTH OF PR...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PR AND THEN EARLY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ACROSS EASTERN PR. ELSEWHERE...PASSING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED.

DEPENDING ON THE STEERING FLOW AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THERE
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THE WRF FAVORS A
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH SOUTHWESTERN PR WHILE THE NAM SUGGESTS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN PR. LATELY THOUGH THE WRF HAS NOT BEEN
PERFORMING VERY WELL SO AT THIS TIME WE WENT IN BETWEEN THE
GUIDANCE AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THESE SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP. FOR FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THE
PROXIMITY TO THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY KEEP US
WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PASSING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED AREAS
WHERE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE WEEK AHEAD...ALTHOUGH ACCORDING TO GUIDANCE...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS IT HAS BEEN...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA...LEAVING A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND LESS CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT
PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.



&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 02/15Z WITH
ONLY ISOLATED PASSING SHRA CAUSING VCSH. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN PR...AND COULD CAUSE MVFR CONDS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN AND AROUND TJPS BETWEEN 02/16Z AND 02/22Z. SFC WINDS
AROUND 10 KT AFTER 02/13Z MAINLY FROM THE ENE WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS...STRONGER WINDS NEAR SHRA/TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
ATLANTIC BUOY 41043 TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS IS NOW
REPORTING SEAS OF 6 FEET...AS WELL AS BUOY 41046 TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LOCAL AREA. NW SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH OUR WATERS
TODAY AND CAUSE SEAS TO SLOWLY RISE. BY LATE TONIGHT...THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD START OBSERVING SEAS OF 6 FEET AND BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS OF UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 84 73 / 20 40 40 30
STT 84 74 84 74 / 20 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST WED APR 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SUB-TROPICAL AND EQUATORIAL JETS
MERGE JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND WILL REMAIN OVER PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
IMMEDIATELY BY A TROUGH PASSAGE. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY AND PASS THROUGH ON FRIDAY OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BEGINNING ON
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY MID WEEK.
MID LEVELS ARE GENERALLY DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A FRONT WHICH HAD STALLED NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA WILL MOVE INTO OUR ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND DECAY
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE FROM THIS
FRONT AND TROPICAL AIR FROM THE EAST WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...PROMOTING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR PORTION OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED OVER THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL WITH MOST OF THE RAIN STRETCHED FROM VILLALBA
TO SALINAS AND OVER PENUELAS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATER TONIGHT SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET...AND MAY LINGER EVEN
LONGER OVER THE CARIBBEAN AFTER MOVING OFF THE MAINLAND. FLOW
BELOW 10 KFT WAS EAST TO NORTHEAST...BUT FLOW WAS LIGHT AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED EAST OR SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EXCEPT FOR A FEW OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT AND THEN RE-BUILD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OVER THE ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO
SAG SOUTH AGAIN. THE GFS BRINGS THE BEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH
FORMS A LONG SLENDER LINE...OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AS FAR SOUTH AS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FLOW AT 850 MB IS THEN EXPECTED TO GAIN A
SLIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES TO
THE EAST PAST THE LOCAL MERIDIAN. THE FRONTAL BAND...WHICH BY THEN
CROSSES MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 20 NORTH...BRINGS MORE
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK. RAPID DRYING IS DEPICTED LATER IN THE WEEK BUT MAY NOT BE
AS DRAMATIC AS THE MODEL SHOWS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES...CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY. LATER THIS WEEK WHEN WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY SAN JUAN AND MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST COULD SEE
WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN TO WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
TJPS...TIST AND TISX UNTIL AT LEAST 02/22Z. LOCAL IFR MAY WILL
ALSO BE ENCOUNTERED WITHIN 15 MILES OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
UNTIL AFTER 02/22Z. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH ONLY A FEW VCSH FOR
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TJSJ 02/12Z INDICATED A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 10K FEET... BECOMING WESTERLY
AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS NORTH SWELL ARRIVES FROM A
STRONG LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY BY FRIDAY IN THE ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLY THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 75 85 / 40 50 60 50
STT 74 84 74 85 / 30 40 60 50

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR and VI today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST THU APR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A MORE SE DIRECTION FOR THE
WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WHILE A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY. FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER...BRINGING CLOUDS AND RAIN TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN PR WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF PR AND THE USVI.

THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING AND
THE ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY...POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...LIKELY CAUSING THE
TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN THOUGH
AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE
A LITTLE...THIS TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA...AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJSJ...TIST AND TISX THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
SHRA AND ISOLD/SCT TSRA WILL FORM IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF PR...PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR CONDS
IN AND AROUND TJPS. SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KT AFTER 03/13Z MAINLY
FROM THE ENE WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...STRONGER WINDS NEAR
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST DATA FROM THE BUOY 41043 AND 41053 SUGGESTS THAT
NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY.
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND 6 FEET OR LESS
TODAY...INCREASING TO 7 FEET BY TOMORROW NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 85 74 / 50 50 50 40
STT 84 73 84 75 / 40 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
238 PM AST THU APR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER...BRINGING CLOUDS AND RAIN THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A MORE SE DIRECTION
FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA
ON SATURDAY WHILE A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME
PLACES. THIS ACTIVITY WAS THE COMBINATION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET...WHEN MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATED BY THEN. HOWEVER...CLOUDINESS WITH
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

AFTER THIS FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WIND FLOW WILL TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY....WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE LONG TERM...COMPUTER MODELS SHOWS ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WILL APPROACH THE
LOCAL REGION AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS TJPS UNTIL AT LEAST UNTIL 03/22Z THIS EVENING. REMNANTS OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH INDUCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TONIGHT. SHRA AND ISOLD/SCT TSRA WILL FORM FORM AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF PR.
TJSJ 03/12Z INDICATED AN EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS
FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 13K FEET...BECOMING WESTWARD UP TO 80
KNOTS ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOY OBSERVATION INDICATED SEAS BETWEEN 5-7 FEET
ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A NORTHWEST TO NORTH
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS BY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
THOSE WATERS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 86 / 50 50 40 40
STT 73 84 75 85 / 50 50 40 40

&&

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR and VI today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 AM AST FRI APR 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROFINESS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS...THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW.

SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY AND SATURDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
BOTH DAYS. UNDER THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW...EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS...WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. IN FACT...MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS
ON SATURDAY...AS A DEEPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TROFINESS SHIFTS EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY
WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO CANT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL
HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...P6SM BKN040-050 THRU 13Z AT JSJ...JPS AND IST BCMG SCT
AFTERWARDS. E TO ENE WINDS 15G20KT AT ALL TERMINALS INCLUDING JMZ.
LIGHT SHOWERS OVR NE PR AND IST WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS A
NORTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS. AS A RESULT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ 710 HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEAS BUILDING
UP TO 7 FEET IN NORTHERLY SWELLS AND EASTERLY WINDS 20 KNOTS OR
LESS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MUCH DRIER AND WINDIER TODAY BUT YDAYS RAINS AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE DANGER THRU SAT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY SUN THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AND A SIG WARMING TREND.
WINDS ALSO REMAIN STRONG THRU WED. XPC FIRE DANGER TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY SUN ON WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
TUE WHEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE AT ITS MAX AMPLITUDE OVR THE
REGION AND WINDS THE STRONGEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 85 75 / 30 40 40 30
STT 85 76 85 75 / 40 50 50 30

[msbee]

Good Morning
St Maarten is receiving lots of nice much needed rainfall this morning.