Right now as i see it the area of most concern is the Mid Atlantic from NC to DE..........................No this does not mean to let your guards down farther south to Florida!
Models!...................Here we have most of them pointing towards the area i think is of most concern and yes this even includes the GFS????
Why do i say that about the GFS well as most know yes this model has been alot of places with its run as to where Izzy will go starting with the Ne coast line and then the SE coast line and inbetween as well which it has shown more and more consitency on...............Still though its diverging a bit from NY down to SC/GA and i am one that likes the middle of the road track..................Which if you consider where it has been back and forth but slowly narrowing it down the middle would be my area of most cencern which most of the other models agree on as of right now....................
Water Vapor loops!......................Now looking at this imo its starting to hint at what the models are saying right now.....................You can clearly see the trough getting ready to drop into the NW which is forecast to catch up to the old frontal boundary sitting in the eastern Plains...............Which as well btw you can now see the ULL in TX which in itself should keep areas along the gulfcoast safe from Isable and as well the big ULL feature that is expected over the Midwest/Great Lakes when Isabel makes her way to the EC...................If you look at where Henri is you can clearly see the path he is about to take up into Canada and then around the high which the models are predicting to develop in the Ne out into the atlantic.........................Which if your looking at a full view loop you can see the path starting to open up for Isabel and her probably future course into the areas that i think is most concern..............................One thing i can say for Water Vapor loops is that they dont lie!
As far as her strength goes with steering as most of all the models say Isabel is expected to lose some of her strength which of course would allow for her turn towards the Mid Atlantic but not enough as well to take her out to sea because of the strength she will have!................BTW i am not saying either that she will weaken big time either and she should hold onto Major hurricane status untill reaching the coast most likely!
Anyways this is all the evidence i need for now as to where Isabel will go and like anything to do with such things this forecast track may change some......................As i said this is my first thaughts on Isabel as far as her track goes!........................Thoughts or Opinions?
My call on Isabel's Track! Follow my calls here!
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Guest
My call on Isabel's Track! Follow my calls here!
Last edited by Guest on Sun Sep 14, 2003 2:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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vbhoutex
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Well Harry, you and I have already discussed this. You know my opinion and I know yours. You see one thing and I see another. Only time will tell and if you split oour opinions on this you will probably get the correct answer. We both used the WV loops for our final analysis. 
So if we split our opinion that says Watch our FL/GA border!! up to SC/NC border.
So if we split our opinion that says Watch our FL/GA border!! up to SC/NC border.
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Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
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Stormcenter
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Anonymous
I AM SCARED SH\TLESS!!!!
WE just received 2.5 inches of rain from the remnants of Henri today in Woodbridge, VA.
Now you are saying Izzy is gonna hit VA???
Then I am scared sh*tless!!!!!
http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_500p_6d.html
The ECMWF does not help at all!!! This is 6 days out, but it does lend credence to all your arguments, and I am very, very scared because Virginia is about to experience the Flood of the new Millennium.
When the energy contained within Izzy translates to rain, we will get 30 to 45 inches. This, in a year-to-date when we have already collected 40 inches!!!
Oh God, What will we do?
HEELLPP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
-A very frightened Jeb
Now you are saying Izzy is gonna hit VA???
Then I am scared sh*tless!!!!!
http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_500p_6d.html
The ECMWF does not help at all!!! This is 6 days out, but it does lend credence to all your arguments, and I am very, very scared because Virginia is about to experience the Flood of the new Millennium.
When the energy contained within Izzy translates to rain, we will get 30 to 45 inches. This, in a year-to-date when we have already collected 40 inches!!!
Oh God, What will we do?
HEELLPP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
-A very frightened Jeb
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Anonymous
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Guest
Well for today's update nothing has changed im still going with the Mid-Atlantic coast for Isabel!.................BTW i will keep this thread going untill she is in and then out of our hairs!...................And as well it will help keep track of how everything is going and take up less board space:)
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Guest
Yep tonight the new model runs came out with all the added info and that along with what i have discussed keeps me thinking the same again!................I will get more detailed with my next update sometime on Sunday!.................Mid Atlantic is the target area..............And NO this by no means says to let your guard down north or south of the Mid Atlantic!:)..................
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Guest
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Guest
