ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Here comes the MJO/WWB.

[Ntxw]

Cfsv2 is creeping upwards toward a strong Nino in 3.4. It has Nino 3 in super Nino territory. Whether we choose to believe this particular guidance or not the trend has been up for all guidance including the conservative statistical models which takes in climo.

850hpa westerlies for the coming WWB is impressive. Not too dissimilar to the one in Feb which was one of not the strongest kelvin waves we've seen.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Here is the CFSv2 Forecast for the equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies. It has some weakening of the pool by July/August. Definitely a traditiomal Niño for this year.

[cycloneye]

1+2 cold waters keep fighting back.

[SouthFloridian92]

I do wonder if the El Nino will shake up the dry and stable atmosphere we've seen in the past years.

[Ntxw]

I do wonder if the El Nino will shake up the dry and stable atmosphere we've seen in the past years.

Probably at least for the short term (1-2 years). If there is a La Nina to follow El Nino next year the Atlantic will probably produce quite a bit. The 1997 El Nino was followed by the 1998 La Nina. 2010 is another big ACE year followed by a significant El Nino to La Nina. And so was 1995. While 2005 during the season was not officially Nina, the ensuing fall went into La Nina. Thus 2004 to 2005 is technically from El Nino to La Nina if you are using the 1981-2010 base.

[stormkite]

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued to drop over the past two weeks, having dropped steadily over the past month from a peak of about +14. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 23 March is −12.6. Recent values are the lowest since March 2010, during the last El Niño.

Information sourced from Bom

[euro6208]

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued to drop over the past two weeks, having dropped steadily over the past month from a peak of about +14. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 23 March is −12.6. Recent values are the lowest since March 2010, during the last El Niño.

Information sourced from Bom

your too late...new update tomorrow...

this is from the march 25 update ...it has climbed back up since...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

What time will the CPC release their ENSO update at UTC? I expect +0.5ºC values in this update, making it earlier than 1997.

[euro6208]

What time will the CPC release their ENSO update at UTC? I expect +0.5ºC values in this update, making it earlier than 1997.

I'm thinking 0.4...We'll see...

[cycloneye]

No big news made in the CPC 4/7/14 update as Nino 3.4 only went up slightly (+0.3C) from last week's update of +0.2C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

We are locking steps with 1997 except a week ahead. 97 April 6th saw +0.2C and April 16th saw +0.3C

[xtyphooncyclonex]

1997
April 6: +0.2C
April 16: +0.3C

2014
April 7: +0.3C
April 16: +0.6C
[my forecast ONLY]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

We're finally ahead! We could see a record breaking traditional El Nino, probably due to a very early start, thus will be fueled by the MJO! What will happen next?

[cycloneye]

According to the CPC update,there are low level easterlies blowing and that is why things are not warming fast. But the MJO/WWB now in Indian Ocean will move eastward in the next couple of weeks causing west winds that will warm the equatorial Pacific in a more steady way.

[Ntxw]

According to the CPC update,there are low level easterlies blowing and that is why things are not warming fast. But the MJO/WWB now in Indian Ocean will move eastward in the next couple of weeks causing west winds that will warm the equatorial Pacific in a more steady way.

Like in the graphic you posted yesterday we are in the front end of the MJO which is sinking motion or downwell phase. On Tao/triton we can also see as result +5C has now built up just below the surface in the east waiting to be released. The MJO will do it, very strong WWB on the way.

[cycloneye]

2014 looks warmer than 1997 in terms of the ocean surface currents. 2014 is the top and 1997 is the bottom one.

[ninel conde]

According to the CPC update,there are low level easterlies blowing and that is why things are not warming fast. But the MJO/WWB now in Indian Ocean will move eastward in the next couple of weeks causing west winds that will warm the equatorial Pacific in a more steady way.

Like in the graphic you posted yesterday we are in the front end of the MJO which is sinking motion or downwell phase. On Tao/triton we can also see as result +5C has now built up just below the surface in the east waiting to be released. The MJO will do it, very strong WWB on the way.

JB begs to differ.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 3h

West wind burst that started the warming already has diminished. SOI not nearly as low as some of the drops in 90s that preceded warm enso

[Ntxw]

Which wind burst is he talking about? Feb one, March one, or the coming April one?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Bastardi said that this El Niño will be a "Modiki", which he misspelled. I completely disagree of what he just said. He should see how warm the subsurface waters are, amd that that pool is strengthening and moving northeastward. Niño4, is the coolest among the regions the El Niño just at +1.0ºC, as predicted by CFS. If it will be Modoki, region 4 would be the warmest, but the warmest is Niño3, which they predict is at +2.0ºC at Super threshold, typical of strong traditional Niños.

He even said that about the MJO and WWB which diminished, which he forgot that there was an MJO about to enter the western Pacific and may produce some storms. It is just stuck at the Indian Ocean. This MJO is bringing very low wind shear and warmer ocean temperatures, which may help cyclone development in the WPAC and fuel the El Niño.


However, this is only my Amateur opinion amd I don't want to show disrespect. I am bashing what he said, and not the messenger, or the people involved in the story.