ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

The MJO is no longer in the Indian Ocean, it is progressing through the Maritime continent and will be entering the WPAC not too long from now

[xtyphooncyclonex]

CFSv2 forecast for Niño regions at the end of forecast (December)

Niño 4: +0.5ºC
They show some warming of this, at moderate Niño threshold at the middle of the year. This might be fluctuating but well above the Niño threshold. But this weakens at borderline Niño threshold.

Niño 3.4: +1.8ºC
This region is very steady throughout the year, but may have slight fluctuations. This peaks very close to super Niño threshold. It steadily stays above the Moderate or Strong threshold.

Niño 3: +2.0ºC
This is the warmest region in this El Niño, typical of canonical events. This is the steadiest among the regions and is forecast to continue warming steadily. Does not really fluctuate but is well above the Strong threshold.

Niño 1+2: +1.8ºC
This regions warms up very rapidly, a moderate Niño threshold at an unusually early time of year due to shallow waters. At first it peaks shy of strong Niño threshold, then goes down to moderate to weak status the rapidly rises steadily at strong threshold and continues warming.

[South Texas Storms]

I just looked at the TAO subsurface SST animations and it seems like the subsurface warm pool is getting smaller and weaker with the larger anomalies further east across ENSO region 1+2 now.

[CaliforniaResident]

I just looked at the TAO subsurface SST animations and it seems like the subsurface warm pool is getting smaller and weaker with the larger anomalies further east across ENSO region 1+2 now.

You mean this El Nino is fading away before it starts ?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I just looked at the TAO subsurface SST animations and it seems like the subsurface warm pool is getting smaller and weaker with the larger anomalies further east across ENSO region 1+2 now.

Yes. Then we'd see weakening of the warm pool, but may merge to the pool near South America. Other subsurface graphics show enlargement and strengthening of the main pool. The TAO actually is showing fluctuations of intensity, but mainly strengthening.

I don't really look at the TAO animations, just check the CFSv2 graphic.

IMO, I find the CFS graphic more accurate and is more widely used than the TAO graphic. The CFS graphic is showing something different, a gradually ENLARGING and INTENSIFYING pool though. This is getting quite confusing.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The pool may not weaken, as there is a coming MJO with a WWB, which may favor strengthening of the subsurface warm pool. It can even make the pool reach the surface in no time!


For next year, I'm hoping for a La Niña! Which brings us here in SE Asia beneficial rainfall for farming and other purposes.

[Ntxw]

I just looked at the TAO subsurface SST animations and it seems like the subsurface warm pool is getting smaller and weaker with the larger anomalies further east across ENSO region 1+2 now.

Yes. Then we'd see weakening of the warm pool, but may merge to the pool near South America. Other subsurface graphics show enlargement and strengthening of the main pool. The TAO actually is showing fluctuations of intensity, but mainly strengthening.

I don't really look at the TAO animations, just check the CFSv2 graphic.

IMO, I find the CFS graphic more accurate and is more widely used than the TAO graphic. The CFS graphic is showing something different, a gradually ENLARGING and INTENSIFYING pool though. This is getting quite confusing.

Its not weakening, it's moving up the thermocline. If you follow GODAS you see this, TAO is a broad set of sensors from buoys and is not always uniform but it is good to use as your average idea of what is happening. Remember these are anomalies, they account for changes in seasonal averages. The real deal is not about anomalies but what they are showing in SST's which is the movement of water, warmth from west to east in El Nino and cool water from east to west in La Nina.

[Kingarabian]

I just looked at the TAO subsurface SST animations and it seems like the subsurface warm pool is getting smaller and weaker with the larger anomalies further east across ENSO region 1+2 now.

Nino 1+2, 3, and 3.4 are the main players here, and they should be the warmest.

I think everyone should just relax, and wait until May before making any assumptions. The main thing here is that we're ahead of 1997.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I just looked at the TAO subsurface SST animations and it seems like the subsurface warm pool is getting smaller and weaker with the larger anomalies further east across ENSO region 1+2 now.

Yes. Then we'd see weakening of the warm pool, but may merge to the pool near South America. Other subsurface graphics show enlargement and strengthening of the main pool. The TAO actually is showing fluctuations of intensity, but mainly strengthening.

I don't really look at the TAO animations, just check the CFSv2 graphic.

IMO, I find the CFS graphic more accurate and is more widely used than the TAO graphic. The CFS graphic is showing something different, a gradually ENLARGING and INTENSIFYING pool though. This is getting quite confusing.

Its not weakening, it's moving up the thermocline. If you follow GODAS you see this, TAO is a broad set of sensors from buoys and is not always uniform but it is good to use as your average idea of what is happening. Remember these are anomalies, they account for changes in seasonal averages. The real deal is not about anomalies but what they are showing in SST's which is the movement of water, warmth from west to east in El Nino and cool water from east to west in La Nina.

Thanks ntwx for making me stop my confusion. The CFSv2 graphic was the correct one actuallh, showing warming and is moving towards the surface.

[euro6208]

I just looked at the TAO subsurface SST animations and it seems like the subsurface warm pool is getting smaller and weaker with the larger anomalies further east across ENSO region 1+2 now.

Nino 1+2, 3, and 3.4 are the main players here, and they should be the warmest.

I think everyone should just relax, and wait until May before making any assumptions. The main thing here is that we're ahead of 1997.

even the 1997 el nino halted a few times before becoming super...mjo and wwb took care of that and that is coming in the next few weeks...

[Ntxw]

Thanks ntwx for making me stop my confusion. The CFSv2 graphic was the correct one actuallh, showing warming and is moving towards the surface.

If you watch the animation of TAO you can see recently the eastern warm pool appeared very quickly out of nowhere. It's not that it is so, but that the warming has been going on upwards from the west. That was the big red flag. As the days go on modoki continues to look less likely, as the latest pool shows which was the idea of many for awhile.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

2014 and 1997 are very similar in scenario. 2014's anomalies may be slightly warmer.


I wonder if the warm subsurface pool will weaken im August, like what happened in 1997. Then it unexpectedly rapidly intensified into a strong El Niño then into Super!

[Ntxw]

2014 and 1997 are very similar in scenario. 2014's anomalies may be slightly warmer.


I wonder if the warm subsurface pool will weaken im August, like what happened in 1997. Then it unexpectedly rapidly intensified into a strong El Niño then into Super!

It probably will, intra-seasonal variability as sst averages change and change of wind patterns for seasons. From winter to spring, and from summer to fall are the weak points of ENSO. 1982 almost disappeared sub-surface before it came roaring. 2009 was breaking down in Sept before re-surging in Oct. The current warm pool will likely sustain moderate to strong El Nino for a few months through summer. After that mid point, what happens next separates strong Nino's to super Nino's.

[Ntxw]

For those who like visuals, here is the CFSv2 depiction for Hurricane season ASO

Moderate to strong Nino in place



Shortly after for SON it is building up close to a Super Nino

[xtyphooncyclonex]

2014 and 1997 are very similar in scenario. 2014's anomalies may be slightly warmer.


I wonder if the warm subsurface pool will weaken im August, like what happened in 1997. Then it unexpectedly rapidly intensified into a strong El Niño then into Super!

It probably will, intra-seasonal variability as sst averages change and change of wind patterns for seasons. From winter to spring, and from summer to fall are the weak points of ENSO. 1982 almost disappeared sub-surface before it came roaring. 2009 was breaking down in Sept before re-surging in Oct. The current warm pool will likely sustain moderate to strong El Nino for a few months through summer. After that mid point, what happens next separates strong Nino's to super Nino's.

CFSv2 is forecasting more or less similar scenario. Some +3º's may pop near the surface by December!

[ninel conde]

JB says not so fast!!

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2m

There is NO SUPER NINO COMING ON IMO Its a reactive warm enso event ( to long standing cold of previous yrs) SOI up pic.twitter.com/WEFUFR0QoG

of course, the reason he is saying this is because a super el nino means a warm winter.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JB says not so fast!!

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2m

There is NO SUPER NINO COMING ON IMO Its a reactive warm enso event ( to long standing cold of previous yrs) SOI up pic.twitter.com/WEFUFR0QoG

of course, the reason he is saying this is because a super el nino means a warm winter.

He is being to warm winter biased IMO. It is normal that the SOI goes up now because the MJO is very near Darwin and this rise in SOI is just a blip and temporary. By saying this, I don't want an El Niño to happen due to its effects, but I would not be biased too. He is just overreacting. NEARLY ALL MODELS FORECAST AT LEAST A MODERATE NIÑO EVENT.

Let's see if his opinion will pan out, as what happened with Hurricane Sandy.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

FYI, Bastardi is widely known for for being contrarian and having unusual opinions.
He does not believe in global warming as he thinks it is a hoax.


http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Bastardi

[cycloneye]

The Aussies update of 4/8/14 says El Nino by Winter. (Southern Hemisphere)

El Niño likely to develop in winter

Issued on Tuesday 8 April 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

It is now likely (estimated at a greater than 70% chance) that an El Niño will develop during the southern hemisphere winter. Although the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, surface and sub-surface ocean temperatures have warmed considerably in recent weeks, consistent with a state of rapid transition. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate continued warming of the central Pacific Ocean in coming months. Most models predict sea surface temperatures will reach El Niño thresholds during the coming winter season.

El Niño is often, but not always, associated with below normal rainfall across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia during the second half of the year. The strength of an El Niño does not always indicate how much it will influence Australian rainfall. Historically there are examples where weak events have resulted in widespread drought across large parts of Australia, while at other times strong events have resulted in relatively modest impacts. It is too early to determine the strength of this potential El Niño. Daytime temperatures tend to be above normal over southern Australia during El Niño.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The Aussies update of 4/8/14 says El Nino by Winter. (Southern Hemisphere)

El Niño likely to develop in winter

Issued on Tuesday 8 April 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

It is now likely (estimated at a greater than 70% chance) that an El Niño will develop during the southern hemisphere winter. Although the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, surface and sub-surface ocean temperatures have warmed considerably in recent weeks, consistent with a state of rapid transition. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate continued warming of the central Pacific Ocean in coming months. Most models predict sea surface temperatures will reach El Niño thresholds during the coming winter season.

El Niño is often, but not always, associated with below normal rainfall across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia during the second half of the year. The strength of an El Niño does not always indicate how much it will influence Australian rainfall. Historically there are examples where weak events have resulted in widespread drought across large parts of Australia, while at other times strong events have resulted in relatively modest impacts. It is too early to determine the strength of this potential El Niño. Daytime temperatures tend to be above normal over southern Australia during El Niño.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Finally, not anymore as usual with neutral. But I hope that we will not be devastated here.