2014 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

interesting...

GFS is so bullish on this storm. I need consistenct and favorable conditions in order form me to beloieve the development of this system. I am still not so sold on this, although, this has good timing with the MJO. Let's see in the next few days.

06Z showing this to become a strong tropical storm and forms 3 more TC!

Although not likely to happen but gives you an idea that the western pacific is heating up and becoming more favorable!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Early April Forecast
UNOFFICIAL

STORMS
28

TYPHOONS
19

SUPER TYPHOONS
9

REMARKS
WPAC SEASON 2014 WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN TERMS OF NUMBER AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS. Storm Development is very favorable this year given by warmer Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's) and far below average Vertical Wind Shear (VMS) provided by the strong El Niño at the peak of the season. LANDFALLS OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA WILL BE LESS LIKELY AT THE PEAK OF THE SEASON given the different position of the West Pac. High or Subtropical Ridge. SEASON WILL NOT HAVE ANY OFFICIAL BOUNDS OF DATE OF FORMATION. AREAS OF FORMATION WILL BE ANYWHERE NORTH OF THE EQUATOR, EAST OF 100ºE, WEST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE.

[euro6208]

GFS showing quite an active wet weather pattern due to MJO with multiple LOWS with 3 possible tropical cyclones developing from this mess...

[euro6208]

Additional tropical cyclogenesis is possible over the northwestern Pacific basin during both Week-1 and Week-2, as constructive interference between KW activity emerging from the Maritime Continent and the low frequency base state favors large scale upper-level divergence.

Interesting days ahead as MJO,WWB, and a KW makes its presence known!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

interesting...

GFS is so bullish on this storm. I need consistenct and favorable conditions in order form me to beloieve the development of this system. I am still not so sold on this, although, this has good timing with the MJO. Let's see in the next few days.

06Z showing this to become a strong tropical storm and forms 3 more TC!

Although not likely to happen but gives you an idea that the western pacific is heating up and becoming more favorable!

LOL typos. Until now, it has been showing development for the past 4 days, but at times just barely an area of low pressure.

[euro6208]

Could this be the phantom storm that propels this years el nino to strong/super status?

EURO showing nothing though...

[euro6208]

So much energy down there with more ferocity. I wouldn't be surprised if we get an invest out of this soon. looks like GFS is on to something...

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has the stat of how the ACE was in 1997 thru April? 2014 so far is at 0.8575.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

2014 actually is at 7.6725. Peipah contributed 0.8525. Maybe this is due to typhoon Faxai last early-March.

[cycloneye]

2014 actually is at 7.6725. Peipah contributed 0.8525. Maybe this is due to typhoon Faxai last early-March.

You are right with the number.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The next storm is now mid-range and forms south of the Marshall Islands then moving West-Northwesterly going to a higher intensity then weakens. It again starts to re-intensify at its previous peak, but, maybe stronger and larger. From GFS, the most bullish model. Will this pan out?

[euro6208]

06Z strongest run yet showing a 981 typhoon recurving out to sea after lashing Guam and the CNMI bullseye!

[euro6208]

Higher chance for development...

[euro6208]

total bust

latest run showing only a weak tropical storm recurving out to sea

[euro6208]

Developing disturbance in the marshall islands but the basin looks eerily calm...

[cycloneye]

http://i.imgur.com/QCM3Ivp.png

http://i.imgur.com/ifWANfw.png]

http://i.imgur.com/GxALCPO.png

http://i.imgur.com/Y2nGJlh.png

Could this be the phantom storm that propels this years el nino to strong/super status?

EURO showing nothing though...

GFS forecasted a strong TS or weak Typhoon for April 21rst but the WPAC looks tranquil so a bust for the model on this one.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

There may be a possible 99W and could develop according to the CPC.

[euro6208]

look at that expansion of blues over the wpac as we head to the *ber* months...

lower pressures- check
el nino- check
above average sst- check

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Actually, no cyclonic [above 25 kts] development from any of the models now. WPAC is currently loaded with high pressures which has been hindering development and is why we can't get any large typhoons.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

LATE APRIL NUMBERS for WPAC BASIN

27/17/8

TS/TY/STY

DEVELOPMENT
Development is not really very favorable on the first quarter of this year for a MT [Major Typhoon] but will be more favorable during the next quarters of the year. Lower pressures, low vertical wind shear, higher Sea Surface Temperatures [SST's] and a higher number of disturbances which are provided by a positive El Nino Southern Oscillation phase this year on MJJ time frame [second quarter of/] in this year. There are not much dry air problems over the tropical region of the basin. Typhoons will more likely to track to the east of 130E and may be close to the IDL, North but closer to the EQ.

Note that this is just my amateur opinion/forecast regarding the possible tropical cyclone activity of the Western Pacific Basin. For official information and details, please refer to the JMA products.