ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[JDawg512]

I don't want an El Niño to happen due to its effects, but I would not be bias.

I feel bad for what El Niño does for Australia and Southeast Asia but I, like many others here in Texas, are really hoping for an El Niño. We have been in a horrible drought and El Niño's bring beneficial rain which we so desperately need. When La Niñas occur we get shafted for rain so forgive me when I say im rooting for a powerful one.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I don't want an El Niño to happen due to its effects, but I would not be bias.

I feel bad for what El Niño does for Australia and Southeast Asia but I, like many others here in Texas, are really hoping for an El Niño. We have been in a horrible drought and El Niño's bring beneficial rain which we so desperately need. When La Niñas occur we get shafted for rain so forgive me when I say im rooting for a powerful one.

Here in the Philippines, the good thing is that we get less direct typhoon hits. I hope that 05W will bring lots of rain here for us to prepare for the powerful drought which claims lives and destroys livelihood. We could get more rain next year if the La Niña will pan out.

[hurricanetrack]

Nice rise in the SOI. Gained several points over last few days. No westerly winds with that scenario in place. 90 day avg statistically zero right now. Long way to go before it gets to the -7 that the BOM typically associates with El Nino state. Not saying it won't happen but for now, brakes have been applied. Anyone have 1997 SOI data for this time frame?

[Ntxw]

Nice rise in the SOI. Gained several points over last few days. No westerly winds with that scenario in place. 90 day avg statistically zero right now. Long way to go before it gets to the -7 that the BOM typically associates with El Nino state. Not saying it won't happen but for now, brakes have been applied. Anyone have 1997 SOI data for this time frame?

It was around -14 I believe for the monthly average so we won't know for 2014 until it's done.

And why does everyone keep saying there are no westerlies? Are we looking at the same data or people just assuming? There is a huge mass of westerlies around the dateline which is how 3.4 has warmed up every week for the past several weeks. And this all without the MJO which has an even bigger mass of WWB with it.

Notice the reds going on right now on either side of 180, that is westerlies.


I think we need to be realistic here, we're not going to see intense action over enso 24/7. It's a sloooow process, we're not going to get to a super Nino by May. It's a one slow step up process. I mean it took us almost 3 months just to get the warm water from one side of the ocean to the other and we're only just now seeing it's effects at the surface...it doesn't happen in weeks it takes months.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Nice rise in the SOI. Gained several points over last few days. No westerly winds with that scenario in place. 90 day avg statistically zero right now. Long way to go before it gets to the -7 that the BOM typically associates with El Nino state. Not saying it won't happen but for now, brakes have been applied. Anyone have 1997 SOI data for this time frame?

I saw some data, and it shows that 2014 has a very low SOI at an early time of year, even lower during the peak of some Niños! To answer your question, 2014 SOI is lower than 1997. I viewed it several times but cant find the link.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Nice rise in the SOI. Gained several points over last few days. No westerly winds with that scenario in place. 90 day avg statistically zero right now. Long way to go before it gets to the -7 that the BOM typically associates with El Nino state. Not saying it won't happen but for now, brakes have been applied. Anyone have 1997 SOI data for this time frame?

It was around -14 I believe for the monthly average so we won't know for 2014 until it's done.

And why does everyone keep saying there are no westerlies? Are we looking at the same data or people just assuming? There is a huge mass of westerlies around the dateline which is how 3.4 has warmed up every week for the past several weeks. And this all without the MJO which has an even bigger mass of WWB with it.

Notice the reds going on right now on either side of 180, that is westerlies.
http://i62.tinypic.com/z751y.png

I think we need to be realistic here, we're not going to see intense action over enso 24/7. It's a sloooow process, we're not going to get to a super Nino by May. It's a one slow step up process. I mean it took us almost 3 months just to get the warm water from one side of the ocean to the other and we're only just now seeing it's effects at the surface...it doesn't happen in weeks it takes months.

Bastardi also mentioned that the westerlies diminished and the SOI is higher than 1997.

[cycloneye]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 4h
Model consensus emerging on El Nino starting in May, becoming moderate in early summer and then strong by late summer...

[Ntxw]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 4h
Model consensus emerging on El Nino starting in May, becoming moderate in early summer and then strong by late summer...

CFSv2 average continues to creep up towards borderline Super El Nino very near +2C while the majority of the individual runs favor greater than +2C.

[SeGaBob]

One question... Was the 1997 El Nino the strongest on record or just one of the strongest?

[wxman57]

One question... Was the 1997 El Nino the strongest on record or just one of the strongest?

See: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

1997 was the strongest since 1950. 1982 was close, though.

[SeGaBob]

One question... Was the 1997 El Nino the strongest on record or just one of the strongest?

See: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

1997 was the strongest since 1950. 1982 was close, though.

Thanks wxman57 that link helped.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

JB back at his political, anit-global warming rants on twitter. I think he is a bit insane to not think a Nino is coming. The comparisons to the '97 Nino are convincing. Whats his deal? Credibility just dwindling from me. I like the guy but his political agenda is really bothering me.

[Kingarabian]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 4h
Model consensus emerging on El Nino starting in May, becoming moderate in early summer and then strong by late summer

[cycloneye]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 4h
Model consensus emerging on El Nino starting in May, becoming moderate in early summer and then strong by late summer

I posted that tweet 6 posts above.

[Kingarabian]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 4h
Model consensus emerging on El Nino starting in May, becoming moderate in early summer and then strong by late summer

I posted that tweet 6 posts above.

Lol dang, Didn't see.

[cycloneye]

Very important chart to follow as time goes by as we see how the numbers at Nino 3.4 change and when it will peak.April,May and June (AMJ) start what's likely to be strong El Nino, may give 82-83/97-98 run for their money.

[cycloneye]

The latest update of the warm pool going until April 3rd shows it remaining intact.

[tolakram]

JB back at his political, anit-global warming rants on twitter. I think he is a bit insane to not think a Nino is coming. The comparisons to the '97 Nino are convincing. Whats his deal? Credibility just dwindling from me. I like the guy but his political agenda is really bothering me.

Rather than remove this let me use it and remind everyone to keep politics OUT of this discussion.

Disagreeing with a forecast is just fine, but commenting on a forecaster or his agenda needs to be kept out of the conversation. I know with some forecasters it's difficult, to say the least, but we need to stick with the weather.

Thanks.

[wxman57]

Speaking in defense of JB, he's not saying no El Niño is coming, he's saying that the El Niño will develop this summer but depart by next winter. The main question appears to be just how strong El Niño will become by July/August. Latest (April) ECMWF forecast is for between +1.5 and +2.0, possibly stronger. Current trend is for a sharper rise than 1997. All signs point to quite hostile conditions across the deep tropics in 2014, but that doesn't rule out a potential major impact. However, multiple major impacts seem unlikely.

[cycloneye]

And the ultimate reinforcement to really warm things will be this new strong WWB that is forecast to move from west to east by late April/early May.