ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

And to think the kelvin wave/wwb in Feb/March was one of the strongest we've seen since 97. The coming one is even bigger!

[cycloneye]

Bigger etc to describe it.

[Hammy]

Could the latest wind burst be what finally reverses the cooling trend and brings the warm pool further to the surface?

[WeatherGuesser]

Discussion on possible effects: http://www.news4jax.com/weather/develop ... a/25390748

[cycloneye]

Ntxw, you think CPC will upgrade on the April 10th monthly update to El Nino warning or they will maintain El Nino watch?

[HURRICANELONNY]

I read that article from Jacksonville. The part where they say wetter for S.FL then drier for winter i kinda disagree.

So what does a strong El Nino mean for us here in Florida? According to the Weather Authorities John Gaughan, it means a wetter than average period for us here up until next winter. Then things turn into a tender box with harsh drought conditions likely to return by March 2015 yielding to wild fires.

Winter is when we get rain from a moderate to strong El Nino. Back in 97 during the winter of I guess 98 we got alot of severe storms that cause some damage when I lived in N. Miami. I call it the ground hog day storm. The winds picked up and flipped my motorcycle that I had at that time. The winds flipped a 600lb bike on its side. Granted the cover acted as a kite but winds were over 60mph. Also one super bowl down here it poured. I think it was also an El Nino year.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, you think CPC will upgrade on the April 10th monthly update to El Nino warning or they will maintain El Nino watch?

I don't think they will pull the trigger in April. All guidance points towards a very strong uptick by the end of this month with the WWB. My earlier guess is was sometime in May and I'm going to remain that thinking June at the latest for a warning upgrade. By mid summer a moderate Nino should be in place. It will definitely be one of the earliest triggers since we have seen the CPC track for an El Nino. The IRI odds for an El Nino are among the highest for so early, we'll probably see that tick up some more next update as BOM (Australia) already has 70% and their criteria for El Nino is higher than CPC.

[South Texas Storms]

When do you think this Nino will peak in intensity? Most Nino's peak in the NH winter, but since this one will likely begin much earlier than most Nino's, do you think that it will end sooner than normal?

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:
When do you think this Nino will peak in intensity? Most Nino's peak in the NH winter, but since this one will likely begin much earlier than most Nino's, do you think that it will end sooner than normal?

It will still peak in late fall and winter, if we see a super Nino that's when the big values will occur. Strong El Nino's for the most part start fast and in a hurry, and peaks in NHEM winter. If you follow the consensus of guidance we will be at a moderate event by summer and fall going towards strong.

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow:
When do you think this Nino will peak in intensity? Most Nino's peak in the NH winter, but since this one will likely begin much earlier than most Nino's, do you think that it will end sooner than normal?

It will still peak in late fall and winter, if we see a super Nino that's when the big values will occur. Strong El Nino's for the most part start fast and in a hurry, and peaks in NHEM winter.

Yeah that's what I was thinking. I don't know why Joe B is saying it will quickly end next winter. Usually the opposite happens.

[Ntxw]

Yeah that's what I was thinking. I don't know why Joe B is saying it will quickly end next winter. Usually the opposite happens.

Aside from reasons I'm not going to mention here from him, his belief is this El Nino will be a one time deal. It will come and go and not linger for several years on and off like those Nino's that flip the PDO+ and we go into a warm phase. The big three all came hard and left the following spring to be followed by La Nina, which is a distinct possibility except his reasoning is to counter the other side of his argument on global temperatures rather than sticking to data.

[Ntxw]

By the way we haven't yet gotten our typhoon (for now) but we have ITA on the other side of the equator doing just as equally a fine job ushering in the westerlies and MJO to help the coming El Nino.

[Ntxw]

I read that article from Jacksonville. The part where they say wetter for S.FL then drier for winter i kinda disagree.

So what does a strong El Nino mean for us here in Florida? According to the Weather Authorities John Gaughan, it means a wetter than average period for us here up until next winter. Then things turn into a tender box with harsh drought conditions likely to return by March 2015 yielding to wild fires.

Winter is when we get rain from a moderate to strong El Nino. Back in 97 during the winter of I guess 98 we got alot of severe storms that cause some damage when I lived in N. Miami. I call it the ground hog day storm. The winds picked up and flipped my motorcycle that I had at that time. The winds flipped a 600lb bike on its side. Granted the cover acted as a kite but winds were over 60mph. Also one super bowl down here it poured. I think it was also an El Nino year.

El Nino brings wetter and cooler conditions to the southern US from the subtropical jet including Florida. Effects are maximized during fall and winter when ENSO events reach maturity.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Speaking of westerlies, GFS has 2 storms, possibly at typhoon strength, forming ag the western Pacific close to the International Date Line AND GOOD THING IT WON'T HIT any major landmass. Let's see if this pans out.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow:
When do you think this Nino will peak in intensity? Most Nino's peak in the NH winter, but since this one will likely begin much earlier than most Nino's, do you think that it will end sooner than normal?

It will still peak in late fall and winter, if we see a super Nino that's when the big values will occur. Strong El Nino's for the most part start fast and in a hurry, and peaks in NHEM winter.

Yeah that's what I was thinking. I don't know why Joe B is saying it will quickly end next winter. Usually the opposite happens.

I don't take JB seriously. I think this El Nino will peak in late fall (given that El Nino's tend to peak earlier and earlier), but I see no reason why it would weaken. We haven't had a Super El Nino in nearly 20 years and an El Nino of any kind in 5, so I think we're overdue for one.

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[xtyphooncyclonex]

CFSv2 getting bullish as Niño 3.4 reaches Super threshold, at exactly +2.0ºC, Niño 3 reaches over that threshold, Niño 1+2 over +1.5ºC at Strong threshold and Niño 4 barely at weak El Niño status. Definitely at least a repeat of 1982's El Niño and NOT MODOKI.

1+2: +1.5ºC
3: +2.2ºC
3.4: +2.0ºC
4: +0.5ºC

ECMWF forecasts at least STRONG for Niño 3 and 3.4, at +1.5ºC while MODERATE for Niño 4, at around +1.0ºC.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

About the subsurface, very shocking as +3.0ºC start to REACH the surface in quite large area in theEASTERN PACIFIC and could be one of the strongest ones on record!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Chance of El Niño has risen to 70%.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Monthly SOI Comparison

March 1997: -7.03
March 2014: -13.13

[WeatherGuesser]

I don't take JB seriously.

I don't think a lot of people do, yet some continue to quote him. I've had to block posts from more than one person for that reason.