ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Can we start now not to post anything about JB? I'm newer to this forum guys and talk only about the El Nino?

[ninel conde]

Can we start now not to post anything about JB? I'm newer to this forum guys and talk only about the El Nino?

JB is an expert and if he talks about the el nino then this seems to be the place to put it.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Can we start now not to post anything about JB? I'm newer to this forum guys and talk only about the El Nino?

JB is an expert and if he talks about the el nino then this seems to be the place to put it.

My point is that he is always showing exaggeration. He is an expert [graduated Meteorology] just in WEATHER FORECASTING and NOT COMPLICATED CLIMATE SCIENCE, which where ENSO is categorized. He misinformed the people several times, but in giving general weather forecasts is where he is spot on and very good at forecasting about. That's why many people criticized him for his opinion on Global Warming which he thinks it's a hoax.

As what the other members said, do not take his forecasts [except basic weather], or opinions too seriously. Starting now, yep, I will not be listening to his ENSO forecasts anymore.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,let's not get caught in a forecaster debate and concentrate on what is ENSO doing every day as this thread is for that. By the way,we are waiting for todays CPC monthly update that will be interesting.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center April update

El Nino by Summer but uncertain how strong it will be.


ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

Synopsis: While ENSO-neutral is favored for Northern Hemisphere spring, the chances of El Niño increase during the remainder of the year, exceeding 50% by summer.

ENSO-neutral continued during March 2014, but with above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) developing over much of the eastern tropical Pacific as well as near the International Date Line (Fig. 1). The weekly SSTs were below average in the Niño1+2 region, near average but rising in Niño3 and Niño3.4 regions, and above average in the Niño4 region (Fig. 2). A significant downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave that was initiated in January greatly increased the oceanic heat content to the largest March value in the historical record back to 1979 (Fig. 3) and produced large positive subsurface temperature anomalies across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Also during March, low-level westerly wind anomalies were observed over the central equatorial Pacific. Convection was suppressed over western Indonesia, and enhanced over the central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5). Although these atmospheric and oceanic conditions collectively reflect ENSO-neutral, they also reflect a clear evolution toward an El Niño state.

The model predictions of ENSO for this summer and beyond are indicating an increased likelihood of El Niño this year compared with last month. Most of the models indicate that ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5oC and 0.5oC) will persist through much of the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014 (Fig. 6), with many models predicting the development of El Niño sometime during the summer or fall. Despite this greater model consensus, there remains considerable uncertainty as to when El Niño will develop and how strong it may become. This uncertainty is amplified by the inherently lower forecast skill of the models for forecasts made in the spring. While ENSO-neutral is favored for Northern Hemisphere spring, the chances of El Niño increase during the remainder of the year, and exceed 50% by the summer (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).



http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... o/current/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[euro6208]

Interesting.

1997 had Super Typhoon Isa ,145 knots, in the West Pacific before the Super Nino

2014 has Cyclone Ita currently at 135 knots in the Aus region. Super Nino?

Different basin but will the effect be the same if this had occured in the WPAC with strong or weaker WWB and MJO?

Ita and Isa

Isa and Ita

[Ntxw]

I think the effects are the same. It's not the cyclones that is the big reason, both are a result (that enhances) of a strong MJO/kelvin wave leading WWB envelope moving into the Pacific in April for both years. We can't say we didn't see it coming.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This Nino will be up there with '97. No doubt in my mind. Having nothing to do with the Global Warming talk, just the way it will be. Seems like we are due for a Super Nino. I'm excited to have a fixture on what this hurricane and winter season will be like. Less Hurricanes, will do more good for us near term, and we need the rain so badly. I think we are already see the effects from Nino as well. The rains will be very welcome.

Ok lets be honest, i want to be able to use my friends house on Lake Travis

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This Nino will be up there with '97. No doubt in my mind. Having nothing to do with the Global Warming talk, just the way it will be. Seems like we are due for a Super Nino. I'm excited to have a fixture on what this hurricane and winter season will be like. Less Hurricanes, will do more good for us near term, and we need the rain so badly. I think we are already see the effects from Nino as well. The rains will be very welcome.

Ok lets be honest, i want to be able to use my friends house on Lake Travis

I'm quite excited for El Nino because of more "fishie" hurricanes and typhoons but not the severe and devastating drought that hits my country and rest of SE Asia and Oceania. Good for you guys.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I can't wait to track the typhoons that will spare us [which is very good news] during this El Nino and to see some impressive in the Pacific. We may even see twin Category 5's this year.

[euro6208]

I can't wait to track the typhoons that will spare us [which is very good news] during this El Nino and to see some impressive in the Pacific. We may even see twin Category 5's this year.

Good for you but there are many islands just east of you called the federated states of micronesia, marshall islands and the mariana islands including guam that might not be so lucky...

Even 1997 had a few strikes on the asian continent...

Guam got hit by Super Typhoon Paka in december to end the year and Super Typhoon Pongsona in december 2002!

this year will no doubt be horrendous for the area!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I can't wait to track the typhoons that will spare us [which is very good news] during this El Nino and to see some impressive in the Pacific. We may even see twin Category 5's this year.

Good for you but there are many islands just east of you called the federated states of micronesia, marshall islands and the mariana islands including guam that might not be so lucky...

Even 1997 had a few strikes on the asian continent...

Guam got hit by Super Typhoon Paka in december to end the year and Super Typhoon Pongsona in december 2002!

this year will no doubt be horrendous for the area!

The only storms that hit us in 1997:
Levi [Bining] - west to east moving storm making landfall near Pangasinan as a TD
Ivan [Narsing]- as a cat 4 but brushing the coast of Isabela
Linda [Openg] - as a weak TD over S. Visayas but eventually devastated Vietnam as STS/TY Linda
Mort [Pining] - as a weak TS near Aurora before dissipating rapidly

But we're not lucky, we significantly lack rainfall, get record highs and have a drought which causes wildfires and famines in our country. Horrible for those rural areas who depend on aqua/agriculture which their products will die and could be bad for our laboring farmers. We also get lack of food supply as we are just a Newly Industrialized Developing Country and we are extremely vulnerable to calamities. It can also claim some lives


For you around Palau, Kiribati, FS of Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Guam, Ladrones/Marianas Islands and Wake Island, I hope that you would not get devastated by another Paka/Sudal/Pongsona/Chataan and any other strong one anymore or just be prepared.

[cycloneye]

Interesting graphic of WWB's in 1997-98 compared with 1982-83.

[WeatherGuesser]

I'm also hoping for a continued slow severe weather season. We all need rain, but no one needs severe storms.

[Hammy]

There still seems to be quite a bit of cooling still going on along the equatorial East Pacific.

[Kingarabian]

There still seems to be quite a bit of cooling still going on along the equatorial East Pacific.

That is correct as there are some Easterlies in place due to the MJO/WWB not arriving yet. Couple of weeks and all of that will change.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I can't wait to track the typhoons that will spare us [which is very good news] during this El Nino and to see some impressive in the Pacific. We may even see twin Category 5's this year.

Unless you have a crystal ball (if you do, I'd like to borrow it this weekend), you have no way of knowing whether the typhoons this year will miss your location or not. Even if the mean pattern favors out to sea activity, day-to-day changes matter much more.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The mid-April ENSO Plume update from the ECMWF was leaked on Twitter early, and its forecasts are starting to get incredible. I'd estimate ~95% of the ECMWF members take the El Nino to 1C and 40-45% of the members take the El Nino to 2C. Some stray members go up to 3C!

[dexterlabio]

Unless you have a crystal ball (if you do, I'd like to borrow it this weekend), you have no way of knowing whether the typhoons this year will miss your location or not. Even if the mean pattern favors out to sea activity, day-to-day changes matter much more.

Same sentiments. El Nino's after 1997 didn't have the "typical" mean pattern that I once mentioned around this forum (i.e. weak East Asia high and dominant troughs). El Nino years have actually become more threatening than a LN or neutral year for anyone in SE Asia and the Pacific islands. When the typhoon season closes, drought kicks in. What I'm saying is, an El Nino year is definitely not a good time to let your guard down.


...also, there are years with strong EN other than 1997 that featured multiple hits in SE Asia (1965, 1972, 1982)..

[Ntxw]

A little off base from the current ENSO movements. I decided to go back and look at some historic monthly SOI to try and pin out some potential El Nino's (pre 1950). It seems the bigger the -SOI the bigger the Nino as a long average. 1997 and 1982 naturally tops this signal post 1950 followed by 1972. 1982 at it's peak could have been more intense than 1997 but for a much shorter duration thus not the power of 1997 that was longer lasting.

Using this, one year that trumped both of them on the monthly SOI was 1905. It is quite possible this El Nino may have been stronger than 1997. The Atlantic recorded 5 named systems and 1 MH. For my area of the world summer recorded some of the coolest readings on record. If anyone has the time perhaps this is a period worth looking into.