Expert forecasts for 2014 N Atl Hurricane season

[cycloneye]

Link to CSU April forecast now posted at first post.

[Steve H.]

It will be interesting to see if GWO will downgrade their forecast, which was last put out in December. Quite a divergence in numbers there.

[OuterBanker]

Wow. Lowest numbers in years from CSU. Don't remember a landfall probability this low ever. Great news. Now. if we can just get insurance companies to drop their rates.

[crownweather]

I was surprised that the landfall probability numbers were so low given the analog years they used for their forecast. Reason I say this is because ALL of the analog years had either a tropical storm or hurricane landfall impact on the US coastline.

1957 had Hurricane Audrey which impacted the upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana in late June.

1963 had Hurricane Cindy make landfall along the upper Texas coast in mid-September. Additionally, Hurricane Ginny almost made landfall along both the North Carolina and New England coasts in late October, but ended up passing just offshore making landfall in Nova Scotia instead.

1965 had Hurricane Betsy make a major impact on not only south Florida, but also made a second landfall in southeastern Louisiana during early and mid September.

1997 had Hurricane Danny which made landfall along the northern Gulf coast during the last half of July.

Finally, in 2002, it seemed that every storm made landfall along the Gulf Coast or along the US Southeast coast with Isidore and Lili being the most impactful storms that year.

[cycloneye]

Here are the analog years that Klotzbach/Gray have in their April forecast.

[Ptarmigan]

Wasn't Andrew during a strong ElNino year? And a very slow season. August before the A storm.

Andrew was not during El Nino, it was during neutral. The moderate to strong El Nino of 1991 extended to spring of 1992. By June there were no more El Nino readings thus the El Nino ended. By August we were in neutral, with cold neutral values during Andrew that continued thru 1993.

What made 1992 and 1993 so slow numerically though? Similar issues as 2013?

El Nino faded by 1992. The PDO was warm and AMO was cool. Those conditions are generally unfavorable for hurricane season. However, a warm AMO and PDO produces active season like 1933, 1995, and 2005.

[ninel conde]

I agree with the CSU forecast and in my opinion the no major landfall streak will not be broken.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I read some believe 92 was a neutral year. I'm pretty sure it was still El Nino effects. I remember mets saying that. I don't have time to back it up but if anyone has 92 data please post.

[Ntxw]

I read some believe 92 was a neutral year. I'm pretty sure it was still El Nino effects. I remember mets saying that. I don't have time to back it up but if anyone has 92 data please post.

1992 was not El Nino, this is not a belief this is a fact. Please refer to ONI as this is used by NOAA to classify El Nino and La Nina you cannot argue data. There could have been lingering effects but there is not substantive evidence (strong shear) associated with El Nino to support it for this period. Monthly SOI in August of 1992 reflected +0.27, so this is unlikely to be true. ENSO readings recorded cold neutral values during Andrew.

I'm not trying to sound condescending but perhaps during that time ENSO was at its infancy and tracking of it was limited to the mets then didnt have the proper understanding of how one is classified. But ONI and sst clearly says no, there was not an El Nino

ONI values for summer 1992

JJA 0.3C - No El Nino
JAS 0.0C - No El Nino
ASO -0.2C -Definitely no El Nino

There is no data at all that even hints there was El Nino. Some people use the logic 1992 aside from Andrew was dead and automatically assume it's because of El Nino effects. This is a poor way of looking at it, last year was a neutral was it because of El Nino effects too? Clearly other things can decide that as well.

[Hurricaneman]

I read some believe 92 was a neutral year. I'm pretty sure it was still El Nino effects. I remember mets saying that. I don't have time to back it up but if anyone has 92 data please post.

1992 was not El Nino, this is not a belief this is a fact. Please refer to ONI as this is used by NOAA to classify El Nino and La Nina you cannot argue data. There could have been lingering effects but there is not substantive evidence (strong shear) associated with El Nino to support it for this period. Monthly SOI in August of 1992 reflected +0.27, so this is unlikely to be true. ENSO readings recorded cold neutral values during Andrew.

I'm not trying to sound condescending but perhaps during that time ENSO was at its infancy and tracking of it was limited to the mets then didnt have the proper understanding of how one is classified. But ONI and sst clearly says no, there was not an El Nino

ONI values for summer 1992

JJA 0.3C - No El Nino
JAS 0.0C - No El Nino
ASO -0.2C -Definitely no El Nino

There is no data at all that even hints there was El Nino. Some people use the logic 1992 aside from Andrew was dead and automatically assume it's because of El Nino effects. This is a poor way of looking at it, last year was a neutral was it because of El Nino effects too? Clearly other things can decide that as well.

1992 was a neutral year but the low numbers are partially due to the previous El Nino, -AMO and the fact of slight cooling from Mt Pinatubo going off in August the previous year which most likely lowered vertical instability

[wxman57]

When Phil Klotzbach & I talked last week at the AMS conference in San Diego he was debating whether to go 9/3/1 or 9/3/0. I reminded him it's been a long time since the Atlantic has gone 2 seasons without a major hurricane - well before the days of recon. It was the 1913-1914 seasons, and who knows there wasn't a major hurricane missed in those 2 years if it stayed well out to sea and not near shipping lanes?

[HurrMark]

When Phil Klotzbach & I talked last week at the AMS conference in San Diego he was debating whether to go 9/3/1 or 9/3/0. I reminded him it's been a long time since the Atlantic has gone 2 seasons without a major hurricane - well before the days of recon. It was the 1913-1914 seasons, and who knows there wasn't a major hurricane missed in those 2 years if it stayed well out to sea and not near shipping lanes?

Did he bring up anything about whether we are still in the "active cycle"?

[cycloneye]

Good new tool by NHC introducing the new graphic of the Tropical Weather Outlook.

[cycloneye]

Did he bring up anything about whether we are still in the "active cycle"?

I saw the conference by the form of internet and he stated that is possible that the active era since 1995 may have ended but he will make studies to verify if it ended or viceversa.

[Ntxw]

When Phil Klotzbach & I talked last week at the AMS conference in San Diego he was debating whether to go 9/3/1 or 9/3/0. I reminded him it's been a long time since the Atlantic has gone 2 seasons without a major hurricane - well before the days of recon. It was the 1913-1914 seasons, and who knows there wasn't a major hurricane missed in those 2 years if it stayed well out to sea and not near shipping lanes?

Interesting those two years were exactly 100 years ago.

[wxman57]

When Phil Klotzbach & I talked last week at the AMS conference in San Diego he was debating whether to go 9/3/1 or 9/3/0. I reminded him it's been a long time since the Atlantic has gone 2 seasons without a major hurricane - well before the days of recon. It was the 1913-1914 seasons, and who knows there wasn't a major hurricane missed in those 2 years if it stayed well out to sea and not near shipping lanes?

Did he bring up anything about whether we are still in the "active cycle"?

No, but in previous "active" cycles there were quite a few seasons with the AMO below normal. The last warm cycle lasted 44 years from 1926-1969. The current cycle has only been going for 19 years. I suspect it has a long way to go.

[cycloneye]

2014 may be worse than 2013 in the lack of vertical instability? By judging about this, it well may be unless it all changes on a dime.

[wxman57]

Caribbean & Gulf are near normal, instability-wise. Perhaps this means closer-in (to the U.S.) development this season and a quiet Cape Verde region?

[ninel conde]

Caribbean & Gulf are near normal, instability-wise. Perhaps this means closer-in (to the U.S.) development this season and a quiet Cape Verde region?

depends. if there is a trof and nw flow off the east and gulf coast then in close developments seem unlikely.

[Ptarmigan]

When Phil Klotzbach & I talked last week at the AMS conference in San Diego he was debating whether to go 9/3/1 or 9/3/0. I reminded him it's been a long time since the Atlantic has gone 2 seasons without a major hurricane - well before the days of recon. It was the 1913-1914 seasons, and who knows there wasn't a major hurricane missed in those 2 years if it stayed well out to sea and not near shipping lanes?

1913 and 1914 had no satellites, so the data is likely dubious.