ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Here is a comparison of the MJO forecasts between 1997-98 and 2014 and it looks different as 2014 CFS is more stronger and earlier in time than the 1997-98 one.

[Ntxw]

Here is a comparison of the MJO forecasts between 1997-98 and 2014 and it looks different as 2014 CFS is more stronger and earlier in time than the 1997-98 one.

http://oi61.tinypic.com/5bzfd2.jpg

The models, aside from the CFS, have vastly underestimated the MJO. Most of them weakened the MJO to virtually of little insignificance yet we now have a very strong wave that pushed right on to the Pacific and likely to intensify. I remember last week South Texas Storms asked about this and clearly guidance had little clue and to trust that the Pacific would guide the MJO

[Kingarabian]

PDO next week.

[Cyclenall]

I'm also hoping for a continued slow severe weather season. We all need rain, but no one needs severe storms.

You keep repeating this but your wrong, I need them. None of us would be on message boards about the weather without extreme and interesting weather so hoping for boring weather means hoping to get another hobby. Its a false hope anyways since I assume you will say the same for 2015 and beyond.

The mid-April ENSO Plume update from the ECMWF was leaked on Twitter early, and its forecasts are starting to get incredible. I'd estimate ~95% of the ECMWF members take the El Nino to 1C and 40-45% of the members take the El Nino to 2C. Some stray members go up to 3C!

You know its big when a weather product is "leaked" online like some sort of news or movie release . I'm waiting for the day a NHC discussion or report on a TC is leaked early...should have occurred for TS Debby in 2012 when everyone was on the edge of their seat about which model the NHC would use for Debby's track.

Using this, one year that trumped both of them on the monthly SOI was 1905. It is quite possible this El Nino may have been stronger than 1997. The Atlantic recorded 5 named systems and 1 MH. For my area of the world summer recorded some of the coolest readings on record. If anyone has the time perhaps this is a period worth looking into.

When you say looking into, what exactly would one "look into"? Mostly temperature and rainfall data I assume as it was 1905. I'm interested in the years 1911 and 1919 due to the extreme summer heat we got in the Great Lakes during those summers.

[cycloneye]

PDO next week.

What about today.

PDO continues to go up in positive territory from +38 in Febuary to +97 in March.

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[Ntxw]

This is the highest reading we have seen from PDO since 2006 beating out 2009's highest values

[cycloneye]

The +97 data of March 2014 is more warmer than March 1997 when it was at +65.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Could it possibly reach 3.00?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Look at that MJO forecast. Nice to have some MJO around!

[Hammy]

Will the MJO, when it arrives in the E Pacific, reverse the recent cooling trend and set the gears in motion, so to speak?

[Ntxw]

Will the MJO, when it arrives in the E Pacific, reverse the recent cooling trend and set the gears in motion, so to speak?

It will, the cooling of late is a result of the MJO as well. The front and back end of the MJO is the sinking phase or down-well. It's the calm before the storm so to speak. But we have to remember it's not just the MJO, oceanic and atmospheric kelvin waves do the pushing too.

[cycloneye]

30 day SOI has risen in the past few days as of this post to -8.1. The most it went down was -13.7 on March 20.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[Kingarabian]

PDO next week.

What about today.

PDO continues to go up in positive territory from +38 in Febuary to +97 in March.

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

Nice surprise !

[cycloneye]

That large warm pool mat subsurface remains intact on the latest update until April 8.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The SOI may be higher due to some of Ita's feeder bands. If the MJO reaches Tahiti, the SOI will go down.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Nino 1+2 may be warming a bit, but 3, 3.4 and 4 have been cooling for the past week. This might be normal as previous Nino's also had a drop in SST anomalies.

Look at the subsurface warm pool now. It's quite weird [and may be record warmest] because some of the 2C+ anomalies are unusually close to the surface. Because it is unusually strong, we may already see at LEAST a weak El Nino anytime this month.

[Ntxw]

The ECMWF reanalysis of March 2014 is in, here is the comparison to the monthly average from 1997. What will April bring?

1997


2014



April 2014 thus far


April 1997

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,two questions about what is going on in real time.

1-Why the SOI has risen too much and now it has gone to neutral threshold after being below -8 El Nino threshold for the past month?

2-What is going on that all ENSO areas are not warming with that large warm pool at sub-surface looming?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw,two questions about what is going on in real time.

1-Why the SOI has risen too much and now it has gone to neutral threshold after being below -8 El Nino threshold for the past month?

2-What is going on that all ENSO areas are not warming with that large warm pool at sub-surface looming?

The daily SOI rose very quickly it is a red flag. I don't know if they will adjust it but I have seen it happen before in 2012 and was changed when Larry contacted them. SOI generally doesn't take drastic gaps like that, gradual. Example +2 to +8 to +15 to +21 etc to go from +8 to +29 is usually a read error. We'll have to see but if it does stand then it's because of ITA.

The MJO has been going through the Maritime continent (Philippines/Indonesia/Australia) thus it has been in the phase favoring trade winds in the eastern half of the Pacific. It doesn't matter much these variables at this time because it the bigger picture as ENSO is a seasonal signal the end product mostly likely will be the same.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Ntxw, is the cooling due to the strengthening of trade winds?