ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, is the cooling due to the strengthening of trade winds?

It could be, though I'm still learning about trades. I'm a little baffled by it, I do know the MJO on either end favors trades. It's a good case to look it up, maybe will come in handy for the next La Nina case study!

[cycloneye]

Those easterly trades are doing a good job right now. I suspect someone will come and proclaim El Nino cancel but IMO,that large warm pool beneath the surface is too much as soon those easterly trades die. The big question hinges on how strong the upcoming MJO will be to seal the El Nino deal. Regarding how strong El Nino will be at it's peak is too early to say for sure but 1997 and 2014 are almost even in terms of the data as Ntxw has posted.Any delay because of what is going on now until the end of April with those easterly trades will cause 1997 to move ahead.

[Ntxw]

Some more comparisons using the most recent El Nino in 2009

From start to fish the OHA looked like this


Oct-Dec looked like this at the sub-surface

[Ntxw]

Last week compared to this week via TAO/Triton

[cycloneye]

Folks,a big jump upwards of the 30 day SOI as it went from -8.1 to now -6.6,well away from the -8 El Nino threshold. I will let Ntxw have his take on this.

20140313,20140411,-6.6

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[Kingarabian]

Folks,a big jump upwards of the 30 day SOI as it went from -8.1 to now -6.6,well away from the -8 El Nino threshold. I will let Ntxw have his take on this.

20140313,20140411,-6.6

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

Don't forget that currently TC Ita was once a Cat. 5 Cyclone before it made landfall on Cape Flattery near Darwin. I think it's only natural that pressures near Darwin were going to drop. Once Ita goes away I think the SOI will return back to normal.

[Ntxw]

Doesn't look like yesterday's SOI reading was an error, another big reading positive today

[Alyono]

Folks,a big jump upwards of the 30 day SOI as it went from -8.1 to now -6.6,well away from the -8 El Nino threshold. I will let Ntxw have his take on this.

20140313,20140411,-6.6

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

Don't forget that currently TC Ita was once a Cat. 5 Cyclone before it made landfall on Cape Flattery near Darwin. I think it's only natural that pressures near Darwin were going to drop. Once Ita goes away I think the SOI will return back to normal.

Ita was nowhere near Darwin. Was nearly 1000 NM away

[cycloneye]

Doesn't look like yesterday's SOI reading was an error, another big reading positive today

For sure another big jump upwards from the -6.6 on tonight's reading. -8.1 to -6.6 is big so something is not clicking in the atmosphere to let El Nino blossom yet.

[cycloneye]

Well,here is something revealing that sheds some light on what is going on with the warming stalling. He says WWB's may focus west and if that happens forget super 97 repeat. Dang!

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 9m
@webberweather I'd say the models were too slow with the MJO because of the strong KW component- MJO too large-scale to feel a few mountains.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 43m
Am thinking that MJO collapse will slow trend toward Nino- WWBs will be focused farther w than nec to keep up with 97.

[cycloneye]

And no surprise that JB is very delighted by the recent developments.

Joe Bastardi
‏@BigJoeBastardi Super Nino hysterics cant be happy with this. major EASTERLY burst in trop pac as SOI surging back! Nothing like 97!

[Yellow Evan]

Well, on the postive side, 3.4 looks slightly warmer than it was yesterday.

And if if we fall behind of 1997, we're still ahead of pretty much every other El Nino AFAIK.

And if the MJO moves in slower, chances are, log says it'll stay longer than expected.

When did 1972 first get +0.5 weekly SST's?

[CaliforniaResident]

Is the Nino dying on us before it happens? Please say it ain't so! I was looking forward to some actual weather in Southern California this fall and winter.

[Alyono]

FWIW, the ENSO CLIPER was not forecasting a major niño. It's verification tends to be as good if not better than the dynamical models, like the EC which forecasts a niño EVERY year (at least it has the last 3 years... why we even give the EC any ENSO weight is beyond me)

[dexterlabio]

Is the Nino dying on us before it happens? Please say it ain't so! I was looking forward to some actual weather in Southern California this fall and winter.

There might be a lower chance of a 1997 repeat right now but I don't think the chance of EN showing up this year is gone, the warming is just delayed.. Indicators of EN showed up early this year, even before NHem spring has started...not to mention the enormous warm pool at the subsurface is intact.. It may not be a 1997 super EN but it's very likely to be stronger than 2009 EN, imo.

[Yellow Evan]

Is the Nino dying on us before it happens? Please say it ain't so! I was looking forward to some actual weather in Southern California this fall and winter.

Not likely. It'll just take slightly slower to develop than expected.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ntxw]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.pn

Well, on the postive side, 3.4 looks slightly warmer than it was yesterday.

And if if we fall behind of 1997, we're still ahead of pretty much every other El Nino AFAIK.

And if the MJO moves in slower, chances are, log says it'll stay longer than expected.

When did 1972 first get +0.5 weekly SST's?

The ENSO data doesn't go back that far most stop at 1991. Unfortunately the further back you go the more sparse the data as we only put buoys and collection instruments as a result of the 1982 El Nino that started the whole tracking of El Nino/La Nina. And yes we have for the past few days slowed down and gone back to earth from the record level of activity. This doesn't change much except maybe when it will start.

ENSO is a seasonal weather phenomenon not day to day or week to week but those smaller time scales can have some effect if they persist for weeks. Must remember 1997 did not start it's first 0.5C reading until the end of April. Ocean heat anoms in this region are still at record pace for the time of year. If you panic at every bump or blip you're in for a long year.

Just look at that 3.4 graph, if you were to panic at the end of March and then saw what happened beginning in April. I haven't been following Bastardi on ENSO for the purpose because he isn't tweeting or posting data for the science of it but rather for politic which is unfortunate.

[CrazyC83]

In 1997 were there "pauses" in the spring as well, like a stair stepping movement?

[Ntxw]

In 1997 were there "pauses" in the spring as well, like a stair stepping movement?

There was one to start April that we could tell by the weekly reading. But we don't have the kind of data we do now where we can track every hour or every day meticulous, rise and fall with the mood in between those updates. Back then it was just one week up date or even longer since CPC didn't really track it like it does now.

We pick it on everyday but reality is since Feb every ENSO update from the cPC has risen

[CaliforniaResident]

Will we still likely see a strong El Nino in place by August or so?