DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN OK...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS
TO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WITH STRENGTHENING/INCREASINGLY
PREVALENT CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM KS TO THE MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND
LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE A PRECEDING
DRYLINE WILL RESIDE/MOVE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS IT EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL OK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS TO MIDDLE/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE EVOLUTION AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...A
LEAD/SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX
WILL SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/OZARKS...REACHING THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN SOUTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW/ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT
WILL EXIST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THIS SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE...PERSISTENTLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY BROAD WARM/MOIST SECTOR FROM EAST-CENTRAL PARTS OF
OK/TX AND OZARKS INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH AFTERNOON...AMPLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT TIED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
SHOULD INFLUENCE INCREASING NEAR-SURFACE-BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...POTENTIALLY RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT/NEAR THE COLD
FRONT...INCLUDING A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND
EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK INTO ADJACENT MO. A BIT LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...DISCRETE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF EASTERN OK AND
NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST TX AND ARKLATEX WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND/OR
NEAR THE DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL OK INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL TX. RELATIVE EARLY AFTERNOON TIMING OF THE
PARENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MODEST MASS CONVERGENCE IN
VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE ACCOUNT FOR SOME UNCERTAINTIES RELATED TO
SEVERE TSTM COVERAGE PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD OF THE SURFACE TRIPLE
POINT /NAMELY ACROSS TX/.
OVERALL...FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES /45-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR/ WILL
SUPPORT INITIAL SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WINDS AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD FRONT SUGGEST THAT
MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD EVOLVE BY EVENING IN MOST
AREAS...WITH NEAR-COLD FRONTAL STORMS STEADILY BEING UNDERCUT BY THE
COLD FRONT /FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST/. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
THE DOMINANT HAZARD OVERALL...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN
AREAS NEAR/EAST OF THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT INCLUDING EASTERN OK AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF MO/AR/NORTH TX.
...MIDDLE MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...
FARTHER EAST...ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
MIDDLE MS VALLEY/MIDWEST NEAR THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT/DEVELOPING
SURFACE WAVE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE
COMPARATIVELY WEAKER...BUT VERY STRONG SHEAR/SRH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS/SOME SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS/SOME HAIL AND POTENTIALLY A TORNADO OR TWO PROVIDED SOME
DEVELOPMENT IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT.
..GUYER.. 04/12/2014
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
