ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

Doesn't matter, as long as we still have that sub surface warm pool with those crazy anamolies.

[Kingarabian]

Folks,a big jump upwards of the 30 day SOI as it went from -8.1 to now -6.6,well away from the -8 El Nino threshold. I will let Ntxw have his take on this.

20140313,20140411,-6.6

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

Don't forget that currently TC Ita was once a Cat. 5 Cyclone before it made landfall on Cape Flattery near Darwin. I think it's only natural that pressures near Darwin were going to drop. Once Ita goes away I think the SOI will return back to normal.

Ita was nowhere near Darwin. Was nearly 1000 NM away

I see that, just trying to find an explanation for that SOI jump.
And it's not that far.

[cycloneye]

Will we still likely see a strong El Nino in place by August or so?

The big picture is El Nino will eventually come but it may not be a superbreaking record of 1997 one. If this brief delay on the warming has a longer time to do so then by August El Nino may be weak to moderate instead of Moderate only.Time will tell.

[Kingarabian]

So it turns out that we didn't have an MJO pulse headed the Epac and no WWB?

[cycloneye]

So it turns out that we didn't have an MJO pulse headed the Epac and no WWB?

That was what Dr Blake said in his 2 tweets that I posted here this morning at 9:25 AM EDT. But there is now a pulse at Maritime continent pushing east but he says it may concentrate west and not make it all the way. As always time will tell.

[Kingarabian]

So it turns out that we didn't have an MJO pulse headed the Epac and no WWB?

That was what Dr Blake said in his 2 tweets that I posted here this morning at 9:25 AM EDT. But there is now a pulse at Maritime continent pushing east but he says it may concentrate west and not make it all the way. As always time will tell.

2012 all over again. I think that year we were all waiting for the MJO that never came.

[cycloneye]

Another factor to consider about this brief delay is the lack of strong tropical systems in the past few weeks in WPAC that could cause WWB's.

[Kingarabian]

Another factor to consider about this brief delay is the lack of strong tropical systems in the past few weeks in WPAC that could cause WWB's.

Same thing on my mind. Still waiting on those ECMWF and GFS storms that they've been predicting.

[cycloneye]

Another factor to consider about this brief delay is the lack of strong tropical systems in the past few weeks in WPAC that could cause WWB's.

Same thing on my mind. Still waiting on those ECMWF and GFS storms that they've been predicting.

Let's see if 98W can blossom.

[Yellow Evan]

I see that many have already went ahead and have questioned wheather an El Nino will form yet alone a super one. But let's not get carried away.

As I posted in the graphic this morning, 3.4 SSTS are slightly warmer today. So, that's some good news for the ones (lack of a better word) wanting a Super El Nino. However, SSTS are constantly changing around the clock, so, either way it's best not to overreact.

As for the 2012 comparison, IIRC 2012 did not have the epicly warm sub surface temperatures that 2014 has. Also, the PDO is much higher now than then. I'd be very surprised if this does pull a 2012. At worst case scenario, we see a 2006-type El Nino. Or we could see a 2009-like El Nino. Given the relative unlikelihood of a Modoki, I'm inclined to be believe we'll see something stronger than 2009. Most likely a 2009-1996 hybrid (which borders super El Nino territory). Or we could still see a 1997 re-run as looked quite likely IMO until the latest SIO rise, but could still happen.

Let's wait and see, at least till next week's SST update.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Latest update of the 30 day SOI shows the index continuing to go up (-5.8) and further away from the -8 El Nino threshold.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[JDawg512]

Like others have said this is a weather pattern that evolves over a long period of time. There's going to be frequent fluctuations and changes happening regularly so I wouldn't be too concerned just yet. We are still learning about El Niño and we don't have extensive data yet. Also there has been a lot less funding for the upkeep of the sensors which is a problem that hopefully will be corrected.

[cycloneye]

Here is the preliminary data before the CPC weekly update text comes out later this morning and it shows Nino 3.4 going down a little bit. Last Monday's update it was at +0.3C.

[euro6208]

Another factor to consider about this brief delay is the lack of strong tropical systems in the past few weeks in WPAC that could cause WWB's.

Same thing on my mind. Still waiting on those ECMWF and GFS storms that they've been predicting.

Let's see if 98W can blossom.

Seems like something is preventing them from developing. Just look at that mess.

At this time in 1997, Isa was on it's way to a category 5 system...

[euro6208]

Major Typhoons (Cat 3 + higher) during el nino years developing BEFORE july.

1997 had Super Typhoon Isa in April and Super Typhoon Nestor in June both Cat 5.

2002 had Super Typhoon Mitag in February/March and Super Typhoon Hagibis in May both Cat 5. Had 2 storms developing at end of June and went on to become a Cat 4 and 3 in July.

2006 had Super Typhoon Chanchu- High end Cat 4 Monster in May and another Cat 4 developing at end of June and peaking in July.

2009 had Cat 4 Kujira in May.

2014 none so far.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Still have time for a major Typhoon to spin up.

[stormkite]

Kyle MacRitchie, Ph.D. Candidate, Atmospheric Science

I suspect that this WWB will move some warm water from the CPAC toward the EPAC. Although it probably isn’t strong enough to flip us into an El Nino state, it is interesting that the CFS projects an enhancement of convection (solid black lines) after the MJO passes. Even though we wouldn’t call this an El Nino signal, an enhancement of convection in this region of the world will probably have a noticeable impact on the mid-latitudes. Perhaps we should keep this in mind as we think about the evolution of ENSO, if the CFS is under forecasting the MJO or under forecasting the ocean’s response to the WWB, we could have some interesting changes in the Pacific ahead of us.

[cycloneye]

Here is the preliminary data before the CPC weekly update text comes out later this morning and it shows Nino 3.4 going down a little bit. Last Monday's update it was at +0.3C.

The text of the 4/14/14 update by CPC has Nino 3.4 down to +0.2C

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I have a feeling that this could STILL be at least a strong Eastern Equatorial El Niño this year due to the record-breaking epicly warm subsurface temperatures extending over a wide area beneath the equatorial Central and Eastern Pacific despite having a weaker WWB currently. We should remember that this is highly unusual and is definite and indicative of a powerful El Niño. This is not to be underestimated, and, that these subsurface temperatures are even stronger of any other El Niño event, even during its peak and we are experiencing it just before the El Niño actually developed.

[Ntxw]

Are we canceling El Nino yet in April? First 3.4 dip in awhile, but hey sea level is rising from the equatorial cpac to equatorial epac.

But hey it would be cool to have a massive warm pool below and trade winds slosh shallow cold waters above, take neutral to a whole new level!