Florida Weather

[psyclone]

Looks like some SVR WX risk on Monday across the peninsula, focusing on the Melbourne and Ruskin CWAs. would not be surprising to see some action in the northern and western MIA CWA later in the period, perhaps after nightfall. A good soaking looks likely.

[AdamFirst]

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 32
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014

TORNADO WATCH 32 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC009-015-027-049-053-055-057-061-069-071-081-085-093-095-097-
101-103-105-111-115-117-119-127-180300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0032.140317T1645Z-140318T0300Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BREVARD CHARLOTTE DESOTO
HARDEE HERNANDO HIGHLANDS
HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER LAKE
LEE MANATEE MARTIN
OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA
PASCO PINELLAS POLK
SARASOTA SEMINOLE ST. LUCIE
SUMTER VOLUSIA
$$

SPC has also posted a 30% risk for winds greater than 55 MPH for most of the Central Florida peninsula in their 12z updated outlook

[HURRICANELONNY]

Cooler middle of next week and Happy Spring to all!

consensus of the models indicates that a frontal boundary will stall in the vicinity of South Florida Sunday night into Monday...then move back north as a warm front during the day on Monday as a wave of low pressure develops along the boundary. A relatively strong cold front is then forecast to move southward through the region Tuesday into Wednesday...with increasing rain chances. Drier and cooler temperatures are then forecast for Wednesday and Thursday. The models are in fairly good agreement on this scenario.

[northjaxpro]

Happy Vernal Equinox everyone, and after receiving soaking rainfall earlier this week (over 3 inches measured at my locale), the weather will be nice for the spring breakers down here through the weekend. Temps look to rebound well into the 70s right through Sunday with no rain seen until Monday.

HurricaneLonny, to follow-up on what you mentioned above, big changes in store for the upcoming week. A cold front will approach the region from the northwest early next week. More rain will be on the way again on Monday into Tuesday of next week for especially the north and central areas of the peninsula. The front pushes through by mid week and temps indeed cool down significantly not only here but for the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS as the pattern returns with a deepening upper level trough bringing colder air from Canada.

As a matter of fact, CPC outlook shows well below normal temps for the Eastern U.S. right through the end of this month. I am holding off on planting the tomatoes as it appears the threat of frost exists at least through the end of this month here.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Temperatures about 13 degrees above average here today. Kendall-Tamiami airport hit 91F.

[gatorcane]

Got our first afternoon/evening seabreeze-driven shower across my area in SE Palm Beach County today. The day started out without a cloud in the sky, light winds, then the seabreeze kicked in early afternoon. Clouds built quickly around the coast and it rained quite heavily for a few minutes with winds that picked up.

A sign the seasons are changing...

[northjaxpro]

Got down to a chilly 36 degrees earlier this morning at my locale. Actually it felt great. I am enjoying this last gasp of winter because the days of over 90 degrees and 60-70percent humidity are going to set in for good coming in April.

[Sanibel]

59* in bright sun in late March must be a record low high temperature here.

[StormingB81]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 42 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IN FLORIDA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES
IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
BREVARD INDIAN RIVER LAKE ORANGE OSCEOLA SEMINOLE VOLUSIA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF... DAYTONA BEACH... KISSIMMEE... LEESBURG... MELBOURNE... ORLANDO... SANFORD... ST CLOUD AND VERO BEACH.

[northjaxpro]

It has been a very active morning here across the northern peninsula, The next round of storms are just now rolling into my region. My locale has aready picked up over an inch of rain since this began lat night. Potential is there to pick up an additional 1-3 inches more in some spots.

Yeah , south down farther down into the central peninsula, with more ample daytime heating, the potential is rather significant for severe weather. Thus, SPC has a Tornado Watch up for the area, especially around the Space Coast region as mentioned in the above post.

[psyclone]

Pretty decent SVR risk over the central peninsula starting with the nature coast and then working south and eastward later this afternoon. TOR warning active in Citrus and Hernando counties presently.

[StormingB81]

One of the strong storms that rumbled across Central Florida on Saturday did, in fact, contain a tornado, the National Weather Service confirmed Sunday.

Scott Spratt, warning coordination meteorologist for the weather service's Melbourne office, made the determination after inspecting damage in the Lake Nona area.

"It was almost all tree damage," Spratt said of what he found in the Isle of Pines subdivision and an adjoining rural area. "The structures in that area didn't experience any direct wind damage. The damage they had was from falling trees."

With winds at ground level of 65-75 mph, Saturday's tornado was classified an EF-0, the lowest on the 0-5 scale.

But Spratt added that winds at treetop level were estimated at 85-95 mph, and radar detected winds of 100-105 mph at 300 feet above the ground.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/loc ... 0291.story

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think the euro will win over the gfs because of the time of year. Could be wrong for next week but think gfs will come inline with euro.

The GFS ensemble mean/GFS/ECMWF begin to show their differences by the end of the weekend/early next week. The GFS is the more aggressive solution and brings a fairly strong shortwave trough eastward along the northern Gulf Coast states driving a cold front through the Florida Peninsula Monday night into Tuesday. As a result of these differences...we will remain conservative and cap the rainfall chances at 20 percent through this time early next week.

[StormingB81]

So wonder how bad storms will be here on Tuesday

[HURRICANELONNY]

So wonder how bad storms will be here on Tuesday

I would think you would have better chance then I.

[northjaxpro]

Currently a brisk, chilly 44.6 degrees this morning. A cold dome of Canadian High Pressure has bought in unseasonably cool air across much of the Eastern U.S. this morning. Today will be a windy, cool day as strong northeast winds of up to 30 mph will occur today as the strong High builds down into the Mid Atlantic region by late tonight. Highs today will be about 15 degrees below the average high this time of year. The high will only reach the low to mid 60s as clouds and moisture will roll back in across the Jax area with the strong northeasterly fetch.

Another vigorous shortwave will form in the Eastern GOM on Thursday, which will bring back another round of rain and thunderstorms for many in North and Central Florida for tomorrow and especially Friday.

[northjaxpro]

Big weather event shaping up beginning Friday right into early Sunday for the peninsula. A Low Pressure system will develop late tonight over the North-Central GOM and drift very slowly east-northeast during this Easter weekend. In addition, a warm front will push northward beginning tonight, creating signifcant isentrophic lift and convergence across the region. The potental exists for areas of Northeast and North-Central Florida to receive upwards to 4-5 inches of rainfall this weekend because of the slow movement of the Low Pressure area, which is cut-off from the main upper level flow aloft. NWS Jax WFO already discussing the potential of posting Flood watches across the region by tomorrow morning. Also, will have to monitor closely the threat for possible severe weather as well as the dynamics will be present for this to possbly happen.

So far this year at my locale, I have meaured just over 18 inches of rainfall , which is fairly impressive since this is generaly our driest time of the year on average. Right now, we are in a surplus of about nearly 6 inches from what we should typically have by mid April. So far, with such a wet pattern we have had to start 2014 and the current indicators present with the atmosphere, it sure looks as if a significant El Nino may be shaping up for this year.

[tropicwatch]

That system is looking pretty impressive near Texas and Louisiana. Could have gotten pretty interesting if this was occurring a month from now.

[Sanibel]

The humidity came early this year and now we have the first pounding rainy season storm appearing on the afternoon SE tradewinds.

[psyclone]

looks like a meso low type feature is coming into radar view about 100 miles southwest of the tampa bay area. should it hold together it seems on track to come ashore near or just south of the bay... with some SVR risk possible. will be interested to see if we get a mesoscale discussion or even a watch for central florida as a result of this. I think the I-4 corridor and just south of there is the region to watch this afternoon with the more "boring" stable rains off to the north. what a wet spring we have had this year.