Question about a model

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
asd123
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 265
Joined: Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:06 pm
Location: Orlando, Florida

Question about a model

#1 Postby asd123 » Sun Apr 20, 2014 10:21 am

I was looking at the GFS model table at http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KORL, and I was wondering what is the max temp min temp at a given forecast time. Also, beyond the 192 hour period what happened to the 2m ag forecast (surface temperature), as it only shows max temp min temp?
0 likes   
This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22951
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Question about a model

#2 Postby wxman57 » Sun Apr 20, 2014 4:40 pm

asd123 wrote:I was looking at the GFS model table at http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KORL, and I was wondering what is the max temp min temp at a given forecast time. Also, beyond the 192 hour period what happened to the 2m ag forecast (surface temperature), as it only shows max temp min temp?


You're looking at raw model data that is in 3-hr increments out to 192hrs and then at 12-hr increments. The values are the temperature at those times, they don't represent highs and lows. Therefore, for the 12Z GFS you're looking at 7am and 7pm temperatures in the extended period.
0 likes   

asd123
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 265
Joined: Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:06 pm
Location: Orlando, Florida

Re: Question about a model

#3 Postby asd123 » Sun Apr 20, 2014 5:47 pm

wxman57 wrote:
asd123 wrote:I was looking at the GFS model table at http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KORL, and I was wondering what is the max temp min temp at a given forecast time. Also, beyond the 192 hour period what happened to the 2m ag forecast (surface temperature), as it only shows max temp min temp?


You're looking at raw model data that is in 3-hr increments out to 192hrs and then at 12-hr increments. The values are the temperature at those times, they don't represent highs and lows. Therefore, for the 12Z GFS you're looking at 7am and 7pm temperatures in the extended period.


I must have phrased myself incorrectly in the original question, I apologize. I knew what a daily high and a low temp is.
For the raw data that I was describing earlier, in the shorter range (0-192) it shows 2m ag column(surface temp forecast for a given time). But next to it are two other columns (max temp min temp). And the max temp and min temp is what I was wondering about in the 0-192 (and extended as well) period.
For example, one forecast time shows a 2mag surface temp forecast of 62, max temp 70, min temp 61. I was wondering what the min and max temps meant.
By the way, it feels good to have a conversation with pro mets and other weather buffs like me.
0 likes   
This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22951
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Question about a model

#4 Postby wxman57 » Sun Apr 20, 2014 7:00 pm

asd123 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
asd123 wrote:I was looking at the GFS model table at http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KORL, and I was wondering what is the max temp min temp at a given forecast time. Also, beyond the 192 hour period what happened to the 2m ag forecast (surface temperature), as it only shows max temp min temp?


You're looking at raw model data that is in 3-hr increments out to 192hrs and then at 12-hr increments. The values are the temperature at those times, they don't represent highs and lows. Therefore, for the 12Z GFS you're looking at 7am and 7pm temperatures in the extended period.


I must have phrased myself incorrectly in the original question, I apologize. I knew what a daily high and a low temp is.
For the raw data that I was describing earlier, in the shorter range (0-192) it shows 2m ag column(surface temp forecast for a given time). But next to it are two other columns (max temp min temp). And the max temp and min temp is what I was wondering about in the 0-192 (and extended as well) period.
For example, one forecast time shows a 2mag surface temp forecast of 62, max temp 70, min temp 61. I was wondering what the min and max temps meant.
By the way, it feels good to have a conversation with pro mets and other weather buffs like me.


The max temps and min temps are for the previous 12 hours. Take a look at that link again. Look at hour 180. The temp at 06Z the 28th April is 68F. Now look at the high temp of 81F at 192hrs (12 hours later) and next to it you see a min temp of 68. That's the 68 which occurred 12 hours earlier at 06Z. It never got any cooler than 68F between 06Z and 18Z that day.
0 likes   

asd123
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 265
Joined: Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:06 pm
Location: Orlando, Florida

Re: Question about a model

#5 Postby asd123 » Sun Apr 20, 2014 7:17 pm

Thank you so much wxman57, I now understand. Always good to hear from a pro met!
0 likes   
This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

asd123
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 265
Joined: Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:06 pm
Location: Orlando, Florida

Re: Question about a model

#6 Postby asd123 » Thu Sep 18, 2014 7:54 pm

I have heard before about the GFS upgrade. One of the things that the upgrade consists of will be increased resolution out to 10 days (240 hours) versus the current 180. I heard it's coming in September 2014, but I did some research and couldn't find exactly when in September.

Can someone tell me when exactly is this upgrade coming as the search yielded nothing.
Also, what are some additional points in the upgrade?
0 likes   
This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Edwards Limestone, wxman22 and 34 guests