90S INVEST 140417 1800 11.8S 93.2E SHEM 25 1004
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:14 pm WST on Thursday 17 April 2014
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 20 April 2014.
Potential Cyclones:
At 1200 WST a low pressure system [16U] was located 325 kilometres west
northwest of the Cocos Islands, near 10.8S 94.2E and moving westwards at 17
kilometres an hour towards the boundary of the Western Region. The system may
develop into a tropical cyclone over the weekend west of 90E and is likely to
re-enter the Western Region late Sunday or during Monday. As the system is
likely to be west of 90E on Sunday, the likelihood has been reduced to moderate
even though this system may be a tropical cyclone.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday: Low
Saturday: Moderate
Sunday: High
SIO: JACK - Tropical Cyclone
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- jaguarjace
- Category 4
- Posts: 975
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
- Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand
SIO: JACK - Tropical Cyclone
Last edited by jaguarjace on Fri Apr 18, 2014 9:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 90S
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 97.6E
IS LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM WEST OF COCOS
ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING, PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 171339Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC AND WEAK FRAGMENTED
BANDING ELSEWHERE. A 171501Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DISPLACED OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM COCOS ISLANDS INDICATE SUSTAINED
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A SLP NEAR 1009 MB. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK TO MODERATE,
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
IS LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM WEST OF COCOS
ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING, PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 171339Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC AND WEAK FRAGMENTED
BANDING ELSEWHERE. A 171501Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DISPLACED OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM COCOS ISLANDS INDICATE SUSTAINED
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A SLP NEAR 1009 MB. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK TO MODERATE,
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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- jaguarjace
- Category 4
- Posts: 975
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
- Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand
Re: SIO: JACK - Tropical Cyclone
AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone Jack
Issued at 9:14 am WST Saturday 19 April 2014.
Remarks:
Tropical Cyclone Jack reached tropical cyclone intensity in the early hours of Saturday morning. It is expected
to continue moving slowly southwest then southeast tomorrow morning. The system poses no direct threat to
the Cocos Islands.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone Jack
Issued at 9:14 am WST Saturday 19 April 2014.
Remarks:
Tropical Cyclone Jack reached tropical cyclone intensity in the early hours of Saturday morning. It is expected
to continue moving slowly southwest then southeast tomorrow morning. The system poses no direct threat to
the Cocos Islands.
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Re: SIO: JACK - Tropical Cyclone
WTXS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181351ZAPR2014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 12.5S 91.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 91.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 13.0S 90.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 13.6S 90.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 14.1S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.0S 91.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.3S 93.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.5S 95.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.3S 98.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 91.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 313 NM
WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND ASSOCIATED TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING (TCB) OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. A MOSAIC OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FURTHER SUPPORTS
THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH A 181229Z SSMIS 91
GHZ IMAGE REVEALING A WELL DEFINED INNER STRUCTURE WITH TCB WRAPPING
IN ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
EIR AND THE PGTW FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK FINAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS FROM ALL FIXING AGENCIES AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 24S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NEARLY UNDERNEATH THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS, WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW SEEN IN
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, AND CIMSS UPPER-LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS
INDICATING GOOD POLEWARD DIFLUENCE AND DEVELOPMENT OF A POINT
SOURCE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW (10-15 KNOTS) AND MAY
DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. ADDITIONALLY,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC
24S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL AN APPROACHING DEEP LAYER
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND INTERACT WITH TC 24S.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS AT TAU 48 GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND ENHANCED OUTFLOW RESULTING FROM THE
TROUGH INTERACTION. SEVERAL MODELS, INCLUDING THE HWRF AND COAMPS-TC,
SHOW SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION OFTEN SEEN DURING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, VWS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY AND BEGIN
TO WEAKEN TC 24S. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
OVER THE LLCC IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE SSTS IN
THE EXTENDED TAUS WILL RESULT IN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
BEGINNING AROUND TAU 72. THE SYSTEM MAY REMAIN AN INTENSE EXTRA-
TROPICAL SYSTEM AFTER COMPLETING ETT PRIOR TO TAU 120. THERE IS
A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE WITH HWRF THE
EXTREME EASTWARD OUTLIER AND COTC AT THE WESTWARD EXTREME. BASED ON
THIS SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MEAN OF AVAILABLE CONSENSUS MODELS WITH THESE
TWO OUTLIERS REMOVED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
181351Z APR 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 181400).
//
NNNN
TPXS10 PGTW 190302
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (W OF COCOS ISLAND)
B. 19/0230Z
C. 13.1S
D. 91.2E
E. THREE/MET7
F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. .75 WRAP YIELDS
A DT OF 3.5. PT WAS 4.0; MET WAS 3.0. DBO DT. CONSTRAINTS
(CHANGE OF 0.5 IN 6HRS) WERE BROKEN DUE TO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, SUPPORTED BY AN INTERMITTENT EYE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH BD ENHANCEMENT OVER THE LAST 6HRS AND MICROWAVE
EYE ON LATEST IMAGERY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
LONG
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- jaguarjace
- Category 4
- Posts: 975
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
- Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand
Re: SIO: JACK - Tropical Cyclone
AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Severe Tropical Cyclone Jack
Issued at 3:09 am WST Sunday 20 April 2014.
Remarks:
Tropical Cyclone Jack continues to intensify as it moves slowly south. It is expected to start moving south
southeast later Sunday morning. The system poses no direct threat to the Cocos Islands.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Severe Tropical Cyclone Jack
Issued at 3:09 am WST Sunday 20 April 2014.
Remarks:
Tropical Cyclone Jack continues to intensify as it moves slowly south. It is expected to start moving south
southeast later Sunday morning. The system poses no direct threat to the Cocos Islands.
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Re: SIO: JACK - Tropical Cyclone
Up to 90 knots!
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 91.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM REMAINS TIGHTLY
WRAPPED; HOWEVER, THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO ELONGATE
POLEWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE ON A 200458Z TRMM MICROWAVE
PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
200530Z DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE CYCLONE IS NOW 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) HAVE ALSO DIPPED
TO 27 CELSIUS. HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE STRONG VENTILATION TO THE SYSTEM. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
DIGGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST HAS INFLICTED SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
WESTERN FLANK OF TC 24S. ADDITIONALLY, IT HAS WEAKENED THE STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TRACK ON A MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. IT APPEARS TC JACK HAS PEAKED INTENSITY
AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM HERE ON MOSTLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS
AND COOLING SSTS. IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 WHEN THE MEMBERS SPREAD
OUT SIGNIFICANTLY - AN INDICATION OF A WEAK VORTEX. IN VIEW OF THIS,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST - LAID OVER THE MODEL
CONSENSUS - UP TO TAU 48 ONLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z. //
NNNN
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 91.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JACK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM REMAINS TIGHTLY
WRAPPED; HOWEVER, THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO ELONGATE
POLEWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE ON A 200458Z TRMM MICROWAVE
PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
200530Z DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE CYCLONE IS NOW 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) HAVE ALSO DIPPED
TO 27 CELSIUS. HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE STRONG VENTILATION TO THE SYSTEM. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
DIGGING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST HAS INFLICTED SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
WESTERN FLANK OF TC 24S. ADDITIONALLY, IT HAS WEAKENED THE STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TRACK ON A MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. IT APPEARS TC JACK HAS PEAKED INTENSITY
AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM HERE ON MOSTLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS
AND COOLING SSTS. IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 WHEN THE MEMBERS SPREAD
OUT SIGNIFICANTLY - AN INDICATION OF A WEAK VORTEX. IN VIEW OF THIS,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST - LAID OVER THE MODEL
CONSENSUS - UP TO TAU 48 ONLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z. //
NNNN
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IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0056 UTC 21/04/2014
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jack
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 91.5E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [145 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 976 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 21/0600: 15.9S 91.8E: 040 [075]: 055 [100]: 983
+12: 21/1200: 16.2S 92.2E: 055 [100]: 050 [095]: 987
+18: 21/1800: 16.6S 92.4E: 060 [110]: 045 [085]: 990
+24: 22/0000: 17.2S 92.7E: 075 [140]: 040 [075]: 993
+36: 22/1200: 18.4S 93.2E: 100 [185]: 030 [055]: 1000
+48: 23/0000: 19.4S 93.5E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 999
+60: 23/1200: 19.4S 93.7E: 140 [260]: 030 [055]: 998
+72: 24/0000: 19.1S 94.0E: 155 [285]: 030 [055]: 998
+96: 25/0000: 18.2S 93.9E: 200 [370]: 030 [055]: 999
+120: 26/0000: 18.3S 93.9E: 280 [520]: 030 [055]: 999
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Jack is showing signs of weakening as it moves slowly
southwards across the central Indian Ocean.
Position has been located using satellite imagery, with a good fix on ssmi
microwave imagery at 2044 UTC. EIR imagery gives a DT of 5.0 based on an
embedded centre pattern. FT/CI is based on MET=4.5. ADT is slightly higher at
4.8. SATCON intensity at 19 UTC was 57 knots and CIMSS AMSU was lower at 50
knots [1 minute means]. Intensity is estimated to be 65 knots [10 minute mean]
based on Dvorak.
Microwave imagery shows a slight displacement of the LLCC to the north of the
cold
cloud and outflow has diminished in northern quadrants. Forecast is for further
weakening as an approaching upper trough increases northwesterly shear across
the system. This will be the main factor influencing the system's demise over
the course of the next 24-36 hours.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0056 UTC 21/04/2014
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jack
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 91.5E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [145 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 976 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 21/0600: 15.9S 91.8E: 040 [075]: 055 [100]: 983
+12: 21/1200: 16.2S 92.2E: 055 [100]: 050 [095]: 987
+18: 21/1800: 16.6S 92.4E: 060 [110]: 045 [085]: 990
+24: 22/0000: 17.2S 92.7E: 075 [140]: 040 [075]: 993
+36: 22/1200: 18.4S 93.2E: 100 [185]: 030 [055]: 1000
+48: 23/0000: 19.4S 93.5E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 999
+60: 23/1200: 19.4S 93.7E: 140 [260]: 030 [055]: 998
+72: 24/0000: 19.1S 94.0E: 155 [285]: 030 [055]: 998
+96: 25/0000: 18.2S 93.9E: 200 [370]: 030 [055]: 999
+120: 26/0000: 18.3S 93.9E: 280 [520]: 030 [055]: 999
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Jack is showing signs of weakening as it moves slowly
southwards across the central Indian Ocean.
Position has been located using satellite imagery, with a good fix on ssmi
microwave imagery at 2044 UTC. EIR imagery gives a DT of 5.0 based on an
embedded centre pattern. FT/CI is based on MET=4.5. ADT is slightly higher at
4.8. SATCON intensity at 19 UTC was 57 knots and CIMSS AMSU was lower at 50
knots [1 minute means]. Intensity is estimated to be 65 knots [10 minute mean]
based on Dvorak.
Microwave imagery shows a slight displacement of the LLCC to the north of the
cold
cloud and outflow has diminished in northern quadrants. Forecast is for further
weakening as an approaching upper trough increases northwesterly shear across
the system. This will be the main factor influencing the system's demise over
the course of the next 24-36 hours.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: SIO: JACK - Tropical Cyclone
24S JACK 140421 1800 16.7S 93.2E SHEM 65 974
weakening...
weakening...
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- jaguarjace
- Category 4
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- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
- Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand
Re: SIO: JACK - Tropical Cyclone
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0rEsVp5tiDQ[/youtube]
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