ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

Do we know for a fact the winds control the water temperatures rather than the other way around? Best I can tell there is still a lot of information about el nino formation that is not known.

This is a complicated question. Its the chicken or egg question. But some things are evident, during early stages or when there is no clear depiction, weather patterns and winds can often control back and forth as in a neutral state, hence the term which we technically are in. When something such as strong trades, or wwb they can tip the balance. If it is enough you get a feedback and sst reach a point that is matured it can influence strongly the winds thus claiming El Nino/La Nina or the coupling of the Ocean and atmosphere.

[cycloneye]

The latest CFSv2 forecast has gone down or almost flat compared to the past few weeks when the lines were more on the upswing and now it barely goes to Moderate El Nino status by OND but stays below the +1.5C Strong El Nino line.

[Kingarabian]

As long as that huge sub-surface pool remains intact, anything is possible. So much potential.

We'll find out by May of what to expect.

@NDG

As Ntxw has mentioned, Nino 1+2 is very volatile for various reasons. Don't think what you see now is set in stone.

[Yellow Evan]

Why does the CPC have it at +0.2 when http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png has it at +0.4?

[asd123]

Why does the CPC have it at +0.2 when http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png has it at +0.4?

My amateur guess would be that CPC's 0.2 is a weekly average, while tropicaltidbits 0.4 reading that you saw off the line chart Nino 3.4: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png is a reading measured off the CDAS flux anomaly map http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... obal_1.png This anomaly map that the measurements of the graph come from are updated 4x a day (0Z 6Z 12Z 18Z). The main idea is that the 0.2 for CPC is an average, while the 0.4 is a more frequent reading. But like cycloneye said CPC might be using something other than CDAS flux.
Pro Mets can you confirm my suspicions or correct me?

[cycloneye]

Why does the CPC have it at +0.2 when http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png has it at +0.4?

Caution on using the CDAS sst maps, the CPC uses buoys and not so much satellites to do readings if I'm not mistaken. We've seen the two not agree often so for predictions on updates I would recommend eyeballing using tao/triton

That above quote is from Ntxw from a post he made earlier.

[Ntxw]

ESPI is going back up after relaxing the past couple of weeks. Went down as far as +0.30 but has risen to +0.80 since.

30 SOI is about to even out. The big negatives are gone so we can't lose any more of those, if we get some modest negatives the next week it should level out then slowly decline again. Probably fall a little faster as we begin to chip away some positives, assuming we get more negative readings than positive.

And an extra note regarding buoy vs tropicaltidbits. The buoys take an average of 5 days means and not what the current actual reading is, which I believe CDAS sst's has so while the last half of last week warm the first half was cooler. Those daily values fluctuate, so CPC uses averages for long term signals weekly and monthly for ENSO rather than the day to day events.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Next week should be +0.5ºC so we could get at least a STRONG El Niño unless if it ends up like 1982. This may weaken if this does not survive the spring barrier.

[cycloneye]

BoM update of 4/22/14

El Nino likely and it begins in July is the headline of this update by the Aussies. But they don't say how strong it will be at the peak.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[cycloneye]

The latest update of the sub-surface graphic until April 18 shows the large warm pool remaining intact.

[euro6208]

Models develop a cyclone near darwin if that is the case, the SOI will likely stay positive hindering el nino.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NWS products.

[hurricanetrack]

I guess that I am the only one who sees the large warm pool shrinking - especially at the surface. Watch the loop. It's right there - the last few frames clearly shows the warm surface water contracting. And, as I have pointed out quite a few times in this thread, there is no new warm pool aggregating in the west Pac subsurface. SOI is positive, I have pointed that out too and people said "oh it will crash soon". Still waiting for that. Seems to me that models are of little value vs just looking out the window, or in this case, at the actual data.

I will believe a strong El Nino when I see it. Until then, the tropical Pacific is certainly warmer than it was in recent months but nothing even remotely approaching a strong El Nino.

[Ntxw]

I will believe a strong El Nino when I see it. Until then, the tropical Pacific is certainly warmer than it was in recent months but nothing even remotely approaching a strong El Nino.

You will have to wait a long time in that case. No strong El Nino has made an appearance before August, majority reach that threshold in Oct-Dec. I'd definitely stick to that mindset if youre expecting it to appear soon, if one were to occur.

It's night and day between the North Pacific vs South Pacific though the latter has been warming lately. We'll probably see the PDO rise above 1 the next update. I've also been tracking TAO, 1+2 should rise above 0 later this week and we may 0.4 or 0.5C next Monday at 3.4.

[asd123]

I guess that I am the only one who sees the large warm pool shrinking - especially at the surface. Watch the loop. It's right there - the last few frames clearly shows the warm surface water contracting. And, as I have pointed out quite a few times in this thread, there is no new warm pool aggregating in the west Pac subsurface. SOI is positive, I have pointed that out too and people said "oh it will crash soon". Still waiting for that. Seems to me that models are of little value vs just looking out the window, or in this case, at the actual data.

I will believe a strong El Nino when I see it. Until then, the tropical Pacific is certainly warmer than it was in recent months but nothing even remotely approaching a strong El Nino.

The warm pool definitely looks to be shrinking with the latest update; what's going on? Also on the link viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&st=0&sk=t&sd=a 5th image down, what's the difference between that anomaly map verus the eq anomaly pentad map?

[Alyono]

I will let Dr Eric Blake describe this:

Eric Blake does NOT have a PhD

[Alyono]

Models develop a cyclone near darwin if that is the case, the SOI will likely stay positive hindering el nino.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NWS products.

and how in the world would a TC near Darwin affect ENSO?

If anything, it may enhance an equatorial WWB. Pressures at 2 locations do not control el niño... they are more of a symptom of el niño

[Alyono]

I guess that I am the only one who sees the large warm pool shrinking - especially at the surface. Watch the loop. It's right there - the last few frames clearly shows the warm surface water contracting. And, as I have pointed out quite a few times in this thread, there is no new warm pool aggregating in the west Pac subsurface. SOI is positive, I have pointed that out too and people said "oh it will crash soon". Still waiting for that. Seems to me that models are of little value vs just looking out the window, or in this case, at the actual data.

I will believe a strong El Nino when I see it. Until then, the tropical Pacific is certainly warmer than it was in recent months but nothing even remotely approaching a strong El Nino.

remember, the CLIPER is still the best ENSO model... shows the science has a lot of room to advance yet

[cycloneye]

Eric Blake does NOT have a PhD

Thanks for the clarification.



Another graphic that we have to watch closely is the TAO one.It shows many arrows pointing to the east.

[Hammy]

The warm pool definitely looks to be shrinking with the latest update

I see it too, and it looks like it isn't making any further progress towards the surface either.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

30 day SOI went slightly down to +1.9 points. Niño 1+2 warmed up to -0.155 as what is happening with other Niño regions in the equatorial Pacific AND the Eastern part of the subsurface warm pool just shrunk while the other part stays intact.