Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 04/26-30/2014

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

How high will the initial updates for the day ahead go?

* I don't think a MDT will be initiated for Day 1. I'm thinking 30H hail, 30 wind and 5 tornado.

* I can see the MDT area expanding for Sunday (Day 2), and mentions of an upgrade to HIGH. But too soon to go all-in.

* I also think there will be a MDT for Monday (Day 3) right away, and very strong wording for Tuesday (Day 4) and Wednesday (Day 5).

Agree with all of this.

[Bunkertor]

SPC AC 260554

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER AR...FAR NRN LA/NERN TX/ERN
OK/SWRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL
CONUS...

...SUMMARY...
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL STATES WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES APPEARS CENTERED FROM THE
ARK-LA-TEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES
AT 12Z/SUN WILL SUBSTANTIALLY SLOW AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARDS NEB. AN
ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL JET /AOA 50 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL
PERSIST FROM THE DESERT SW...CURLING NWD FROM THE RED RIVER TO THE
MO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE SHOULD DRIFT EWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING EWD ACROSS THE CORN BELT TO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY. A DRYLINE/WEAKENING PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD
REACH ERN KS/OK INTO DEEP S TX IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

...MO VALLEY TO THE WRN GULF COAST...
OVERALL SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS OUTLOOK WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A POSSIBLE OUTBREAK AMIDST
CONTINUED LIMITING FACTORS.

THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE INCREASINGLY BROAD/MOIST BENEATH AN EML WITH
LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS BECOMING ESTABLISHED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S INTO THE LOWER/MID-MS VALLEYS AND
ARKLATEX BY EARLY EVENING SUN. THIS COMBINED WITH INITIALLY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

AREAS OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/SUN FROM PARTS OF IA TO
OK. ALTHOUGH THE BULK THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ELEVATED...IT SHOULD
TRANSITION TO BECOMING SURFACE-BASED AS DOWNSTREAM DIURNAL HEATING
ENSUES. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THIS LEAD CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPS EWD.

THE MOST INTENSE SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION...THERE REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION /ESPECIALLY WITH NRN
EXTENT/. NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING AT LEAST
MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG INTO NERN KS AS
INSOLATION OCCURS ALONG THE DRYLINE AMIDST STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...ROBUST MID-LEVEL DCVA WOULD FOSTER
SCATTERED STORMS FORMING BY MID-AFTERNOON INVOF KS/MO BORDER.
ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE LARGELY MERIDIONAL
HERE...BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WOULD AID IN SUFFICIENT CURVATURE TO
THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL /SOME
SIGNIFICANT/ AND AT LEAST A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE. PARTS OF
THIS REGION MAY BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT
APPEARS STABILIZING EFFECTS OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION WILL NOT BE TOO
DETRIMENTAL TO THE AFTERNOON THREAT.

FARTHER S...A MORE VOLATILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD EXIST S
OF ANY EARLY DAY CONVECTION /INVOF THE ARKLATEX/. WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HEATING INTO THE 80S/90S ALONG/W OF THE DRYLINE IN
TX...MLCAPE SHOULD REACH 2500 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF IT. HODOGRAPHS
APPEAR QUITE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN THE
MOST ROBUST WITH THE CO-LOCATION OF STRONG BUOYANCY AND LARGE
CURVING HODOGRAPHS. OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGER KINEMATIC
FIELDS WILL BE DISPLACED FARTHER EAST /CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/. BUT WITH THE DRYLINE STALLING OR SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NERN
TX SUN NIGHT...TRAINING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY WARRANT
AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..GRAMS.. 04/26/2014

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

[TwisterFanatic]

Looking at the model runs tonight, I wouldn't be shocked if no storms form tomorrow evening, gonna be a stout cap and not much to break it free. NAM and GFS keeping a lid on things pretty much all day tomorrow.

[paintplaye]

Looking at the model runs tonight, I wouldn't be shocked if no storms form tomorrow evening, gonna be a stout cap and not much to break it free. NAM and GFS keeping a lid on things pretty much all day tomorrow.

Towards the 00z-03z time-frame there should be enough lift from the trough to easily break the cap. I do think storm initialization will be late in the evening around sunset though.

[RL3AO]

Looking at the model runs tonight, I wouldn't be shocked if no storms form tomorrow evening, gonna be a stout cap and not much to break it free. NAM and GFS keeping a lid on things pretty much all day tomorrow.

I think the 5% area in SE Nebraska will be the place to watch for an area that may surprise later today.

[WeatherGuesser]

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2014

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR NRN/CNTRL MS...WRN TN...FAR
NERN LA/ERN AR/NWRN AL/SWRN KY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE CNTRL
GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL CONUS
WITH AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX /AOA 80 KT AT 500 MB/ ROTATING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND EJECTING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-SOUTH AND CONFLUENCE OF MS/OH RIVERS BY MON AFTERNOON. SURFACE
CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE MO VALLEY...WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPED EWD OVER THE MIDWEST. COMPOSITE DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO TX GULF COAST ON MON
AFTERNOON.

...MIDWEST TO CNTRL GULF COAST...
A PLUME OF 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE ESTABLISHED FROM THE WARM
FRONT IN THE MIDWEST S/SWWD TO THE WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST AND PERSIST
AMIDST STRONG LOW-LEVEL S/SWLYS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AT 12Z/MON FROM PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO MID-SOUTH...ROBUST
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR IN CONVECTIVE-FREE AREAS TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST MODERATE BUOYANCY OVER MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON.
LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG OWING TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SPEED MAX. THIS CO-LOCATION WITH THE ESTABLISHED WARM
SECTOR YIELDS A LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE MOST CONCENTRATED CORRIDOR FOR HIGH-END SEVERE RISK APPEARS
CENTERED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO MID-SOUTH. WIDESPREAD
STORMS APPEAR PROBABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY EMANATING FROM
REGENERATIVE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ALONG THE DRYLINE/CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS. WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 50 KT AND SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...SETUP COULD YIELD SEVERAL SUPERCELLS WITH
STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL...EVOLVING INTO BOWS AND WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS.

..GRAMS.. 04/26/2014

[Bunkertor]

Sigtors for AR are of the chart by NAM ( Mon 9z)

[Tireman4]

Sigtors for AR are of the chart by NAM ( Mon 9z)

Bunk,

Do you mean "off"?

[Bunkertor]

lol, yes. "off"

[Bunkertor]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2014

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MO VALLEY INTO SRN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...SYNOPSIS...

A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER CA/NV WILL ASSUME AN INCREASING
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT EMERGES INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY A 80-90 KT
MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS EXCEEDING 100-150 M/12
HR. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER-AIR SYSTEM WILL INDUCE LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND A SHARPENING LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE FROM CNTRL NEB SWD THROUGH WRN OK INTO W-CNTRL TX AND
THE TX EDWARDS PLATEAU BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE DRYLINE
MAY RETREAT SLIGHTLY WWD THIS EVENING BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY A
PACIFIC FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NWD INTO THE MID AND LOWER MO VALLEY WHERE IT
WILL MERGE WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED OVER THE CORN
BELT.

...KS/OK/TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

THE DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING OF A SLY LLJ
WILL PROMOTE THE POLEWARD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH THE PLAINS WARM SECTOR. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR
BENEATH A PRONOUNCED EML AND ASSOCIATED CAP WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG.

GIVEN THAT THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE
SWRN U.S. TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE
PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WITH REGARD TO THE EXTENT OF SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE
APPEARS TO BE OVER NWRN TX/SWRN OK ALONG THAT SEGMENT OF THE DRYLINE
WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEP SOLENOIDAL CIRCULATION. HERE...STEEP...DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES...20+ F TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND AROUND 30 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL FOSTER HIGH-BASED MULTI- OR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS COUPLED
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC WAA AND LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT
ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER AN INCREASE IN MAINLY
ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS OWING TO THE STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES...MUCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND STRENGTHENING
CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR. THE GREATEST RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL
EXIST WITH ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPERCELLS WHICH CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE
OF INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AFTER
00-03Z OVER PARTS OF SWRN OK/NWRN TX.

...MID MO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...DAYTIME STORM INITIATION
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP AND
LIMITED FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS SUCH...THE FIVE PERCENT TORNADO
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM PARTS OF ERN NEB. A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER SUNSET
TO THE N OF THE CONSOLIDATING WARM FRONT WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED
WAA AND MOISTURE FLUX. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING
CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING
UPDRAFTS WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING SEVERE HAIL.

...ERN WY/WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

INCREASING DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS OVER THE BLACK HILLS AMIDST A STEEP LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED WHICH SHOULD TEMPER
UPDRAFT VIGOR. NONETHELESS...ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.

...MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON...

A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE ALONG THE SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN WEAK OWING TO THE ANTECEDENT...DRY AIR MASS.
NONETHELESS...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY STRONG
DEEP NWLY FLOW MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..MEAD/MOSIER.. 04/26/2014

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

[CrazyC83]

Agreed today looks like it could be a total bust on the cap even though instability is definitely there. But after today it gets ugly. I could see it being three consecutive High Risk days in the end...

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'm not going to dismiss this evening. Most convection-allowing models are showing isolated cells developing along the dryline in northwest Texas and west Oklahoma, as they should be since the upper-level trough should arrive in time to break the cap. Shear will be favorable for tornadoes after 0z.

[Bunkertor]

I'm not going to dismiss this evening. Most convection-allowing models are showing isolated cells developing along the dryline in northwest Texas and west Oklahoma, as they should be since the upper-level trough should arrive in time to break the cap. Shear will be favorable for tornadoes after 0z.

Can you post some maps of this ECMRF ?

[SouthDadeFish]

This event has the potential to be a significant outbreak and should be taken very seriously. While tonight will be a most likely be an isolated event, tomorrow and the following days look scary. I could easily see Sunday being a high risk day, but given the uncertainty of today's convective developments, I don't see the need to rush into issuing one. On Sunday, the ArkLaTex area looks ripe for severe weather, including tornadoes. Models are forecasting huge, clockwise turning hodographs, with strong low-level shear in the presence of 2000+ CAPE. The scary part is, due to the slow moving nature of the upper-level trough, areas hit by severe weather are at risk to be hit again the following day.

[RL3AO]

NAM Forecast Sounding for 21z tomorrow. About halfway between Fort Smith and Little Rock.



The wind profile looks so conductive for strong tornadoes. STP over 7 and helicity of 500+.

[TwisterFanatic]

Yikes, scary image there.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF AR
SRN
MO...NRNLA..FAR NERN TX AND EXTREME ERN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM TX/LA/MS
NWD INTO NEB AND IA...

..SUMMARY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI AND
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE
ARK-LA-TEX INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. A SECONDARY THREAT AREA WILL BE
FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. SEVERAL TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..SYNOPSIS

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM ERN CO INTO NEB DURING THE DAY WITH A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS
NEBRASKA WITH A DRYLINE NEAR THE NEB/IA BORDER AT 21Z...EXTENDING
SWD INTO FAR ERN OK AND ACROSS E TX WHERE IT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS NERN NEB
INTO IA.

AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE AN
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS AS FAR N AS THE IA
WARM FRONT AND MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS FROM ERN OK/AR SWD INTO
E TX. SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL
FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

..NEB...IA...NERN KS...NWRN MO

SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND FAVORABLY ORIENTED
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ACROSS THE DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT NWD MOVING
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.

..ARKLATEX INTO SRN MO

STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AS MID TO UPPER
60S DEWPOINTS SURGE NWD AND HEATING OCCURS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
PERFECTLY ORIENTED RELATIVE TO THE DRYLINE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...AND STRONG HEATING AND MOISTENING...A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
SUPERCELLS COULD FORM OVER SRN AR...NRN LA...AND NERN TX. SUPERCELLS
WILL INITIALLY BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...WITH AN INCREASING
TORNADO THREAT AS THEY MATURE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEVERAL STRONG TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE...AND A HIGH RISK COULD BE
ISSUED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS ONCE CONFIDENCE IN THE BEST CORRIDOR
INCREASES.

..JEWELL.. 04/26/2014

[RL3AO]

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
PERFECTLY ORIENTED RELATIVE TO THE DRYLINE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

Thats not good. Sounds like a previous April 27th in that regard. (The discrete supercells part, not the dry line)

[EF-5bigj]

It looks like Texas,Arkansas and Louisiana will have it the worst. Although I'm expecting Mississippi to get some tornadoes. I'll have to warn my sister as she lives on the Memphis,Ark boarder. Given everything we have been discussing and the warnings about the system several killer tornadoes may spawn.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Monday and Tuesday continue to look very bad on the models. The 12z ECMWF solely for Monday shows 2000-3000j/kg CAPE values overspreading the warm sector, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s and a 55-60kt LLJ. A secondary surface low develops over Arkansas, which should act to back the winds across northern Mississippi.

Tuesday is nearly identical, though since the system will be nearly stalled by this point, we need to see how Monday's convection will affect the day. A stronger mid-level jet will be present on this day.