Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 04/26-30/2014

[EF-5bigj]

I'm in the 30% hatched area still not good but 45% hatched area is what has me worried given how Dixie Alley violent tornadoes are there could be a few that track from Mississippi into Alabama again. I'll be warning friends and I'm looking over my skywarn information again. I know violent tornadoes are rare but it's good the NWS is warning people of the possibility of a few.

[Bunkertor]

Today seems to be calm. Go Mavericks !

[CrazyC83]

Looks like the cap is holding up. I knew that was a good possibility today, the trough wasn't going to come in until late and it might be too late.

But that means two things IMO for tomorrow:

1) The threat may be further west. The firing line may be around I-35.

2) With no convection to interrupt, the warm sector would be wide open for development.

[CrazyC83]

I wouldn't quite go with a High Risk at 0600Z though, although it is really borderline. However, if things do not change, 1300Z would be a good time to pull the trigger. I think a large area of 15-hatched tornado, along with 45 wind and 45-hatched hail, will be what we see initially.

Also I think the Day 2 MDT for Monday will grow (with mention of HIGH) and a Day 3 MDT once again for Tuesday.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

April 15 and April 27, 2011 are now showing up as analogs for Tuesday.

However, please don't let this freak you out. Analogs are based off similar synoptic -- large-scale patterns. When you're dealing with big outbreaks, mesoscale (small-scale) details make all the difference. What we can derive from these being analogs is that Tuesday may very well be a very significant day and people across Alabama and Mississippi need to be paying attention.

[CrazyC83]

We need to get through tomorrow first...the early 00Z models are scary.

[CrazyC83]

If the 00Z models are accurate, a High Risk is definitely warranted. But the convection might be the holdback factor?

[RL3AO]

So many crazy parameters (EHI, Helicity, STP, ect) tomorrow. Could be a very rough evening and night.

[RL3AO]

I love seeing NWS Tulsa pushing preparedness out on social media and their website.

...SEVERE STORMS LIKELY SUNDAY WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES...

WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY RELATING TO THE SPECIFIC AREAS
THAT WILL BE AT MOST RISK...PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND PERHAPS EXTREME
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE LIFE-THREATENING
STORMS SUNDAY EVENING. THAT THREAT INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG AND POSSIBLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES.

IF YOU ARE IN ARKANSAS OR EXTREME EASTERN OKLAHOMA YOU SHOULD USE
THIS EVENING TO REVIEW YOUR SEVERE ACTIONS PLANS. THIS SHOULD BE
DONE NOT ONLY FOR YOUR HOME...BUT ALSO FOR WHERE YOU EXPECT TO BE
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS IS ALSO A GOOD TIME TO CHECK BATTERY-POWER
DEVICES AND ENSURE YOUR FAMILY CAN QUICKLY SEEK SHELTER IF
NECESSARY.

[RL3AO]

Kept it moderate at 6z. I expect an upgrade at 13z unless something really changes overnight.

[Cyclenall]

I wouldn't quite go with a High Risk at 0600Z though, although it is really borderline. However, if things do not change, 1300Z would be a good time to pull the trigger. I think a large area of 15-hatched tornado, along with 45 wind and 45-hatched hail, will be what we see initially.

Also I think the Day 2 MDT for Monday will grow (with mention of HIGH) and a Day 3 MDT once again for Tuesday.

When the latest high-res guidance came in late Saturday, they should have put Sunday at a High Risk right then and there. Borderline? The setup far surpasses any event since April 27, 2011. Tomorrow could be the start of a historic event and yes maybe even Arkansas's worst tornado outbreak.

If the 00Z models are accurate, a High Risk is definitely warranted. But the convection might be the holdback factor?

What do you mean by the 2nd point? There's a fast moving speck on the OK/KS boarder that appears unusual and a tiny storm in far w OK. If it forms by mid-morning or something that will be the kick-off and likely go nuts. This is all my opinion.

So many crazy parameters (EHI, Helicity, STP, ect) tomorrow. Could be a very rough evening and night.

I have a feeling that a ton of people are unaware of just how bad this could be, there is little hype. The parameters are off the scales for multiple products and incomprehensible radar, max updraft simulations:





I don't have any words to describe that, easily the most insane model image of 2014 and high-res reflectivity simulation in general. Maxes out the scale on different products, supercells in massive clusters and strings. The Duggar family better have a basement, I would be running for the hills.

What I think might happen is instead of getting our first EF3 or strong tornado for 2014, we'll just skip right ahead to an EF5(s). I have a feeling about this event like many of you, and it didn't wavier when the models were showing toast-city for any major action days ago. Equilibrium could very well strike hard here in many ways as I've seen before. Something is going to happen, no doubt.

I was reading the Super Outbreak wiki article again and a bunch of info I never saw before came up about how the event started. There was forward-propagating MCS clusters that actually kicked it off and split to produce some strong-violent stuff which surprised me. I don't know if they stayed MCS in nature or more like supercells but the article keeps calling them bands. Something to keep in mind regarding pre-outbreak convection hanging around.

Kept it moderate at 6z. I expect an upgrade at 13z unless something really changes overnight.

lol wat? I'm at a loss here, what reason would there be not to upgrade now? I'm in disbelief. Pre-convection or whatever, that is scary to me. If there was a day to upgrade, it was yesterday. The amount of supercells that might form tomorrow could be ludicrous so even if there was a chance of that not occurring, the support of over 3 models should have pushed that choice over the edge already. The chatter online about this is already stating how strange the discussion was written and the locations mentioned.

[WeatherGuesser]

I have a feeling that a ton of people are unaware of just how bad this could be, there is little hype.

I'm seeing a LOT of hype in the media.

Come Wednesday, we'll know if it was too much or too little.

The previous Moderates this year have more or less busted. Models this year seem to have overstated things. They may have been accurate that something would happen, but overstated the severity. Maybe this event will be closer to what's being forecast. Maybe not.

I hate to see the 'Cry Wolf' syndrome set in. If it does, people may not take future situations as seriously as they should.

I don't doubt there will be some storms and that some of them will be damaging. But will it be this massive outbreak?

Are/were they too focused on the midwest? I don't recall hearing much about potential for the east until after news broke about the damage in NC.

[WeatherGuesser]

Meanwhile, the latest Moderate covers all of AR and most of MO for today, then moves to MS, TN and AL for tomorrow.

[apocalypt-flyer]

Stuck with MDT for the 06. Will be interesting to see if they upgrade by 12 or even whack out a PDS.

Tuesday with a SLGT thus far.

[Bunkertor]

Man, those maps should scare the hell out of you... 06z numbers ( GFS )

[ronyan]

Outside of watching the weather channel for 15 minutes yesterday, I didn't notice any hype in the general media regarding this potential event. It could really be one to remember and think may have been under covered to this point(difficult to believe now days with all the PV talk in the media during winter). Think they may have dropped the ball on this one, just my opinion of course.

[Alyono]

How much will the intense convection this morning keep a lid on things this afternoon?

[RL3AO]

How much will the intense convection this morning keep a lid on things this afternoon?

That is the question and likely the reason they kept it MDT at 13z.

[Bunkertor]

How much will the intense convection this morning keep a lid on things this afternoon?

That is the question and likely the reason they kept it MDT at 13z.

What is the main reason morning thunderstorms slow down midday action ? Cooling due to rain or "consumption" of the energy present ?

[RL3AO]

Thunderstorms bring clouds and rain which prevent the surface from warming up as much as it would with sun which lowers the instability in the evening.