Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 04/26-30/2014

[Bunkertor]

Thunderstorms bring clouds and rain which prevent the surface from warming up as much as it would with sun which lowers the instability in the evening.

OK !

[Alyono]

getting the feeling today is not going to live up to the hype. May be more along the lines of a "normal" springtime outbreak

[RL3AO]

getting the feeling today is not going to live up to the hype. May be more along the lines of a "normal" springtime outbreak

I'm still worried that some of the high res models are still bringing what appear to be isolated supercells into Western Arkansas after dark. Although I do understand the feeling that it probably won't be a 45% tornado risk day that seemed possible yesterday.

[apocalypt-flyer]

I'll still wait until a couple of hours before shouting bust. Not even 9am.

[Cyclenall]

getting the feeling today is not going to live up to the hype. May be more along the lines of a "normal" springtime outbreak

There wasn't much hype to begin with...

I'll still wait until a couple of hours before shouting bust. Not even 9am.

There are already severe cells firing with one or two producing 62 mph gusts eariler and a brief TVS hours ago.

[Bunkertor]

All chasercams in the area showing low hanging clouds.

[CrazyC83]

I'm curious to see if that squall line breaks up and goes tornadic...that could be a key.

[CrazyC83]

Seeing breaks in the clouds in western Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and eastern Texas between the lines.

[Alyono]

not at all saying bust today

Just saying this is probably more along the lines of a "normal" spring outbreak.

One thing I saw last night on TWC, Forbes said that the winds are expected to be unidirectional in the lowest 5,000 ft. That may also limit the tornadic activity

[RL3AO]

Models appear a bit faster today. Seems the most favorable conditions over Arkansas are now around 18z to 0z.

[WeatherGuesser]

I didn't notice any hype in the general media regarding this potential event.

It's all over the main stream media sites this morning.

CBS, NBC, Fox, LA Times, AL.com, plus all sorts of local TV and newspaper sites.

[WeatherGuesser]

I'm curious to see if that squall line breaks up and goes tornadic...that could be a key.

I saw a TV met not too long ago talking about that during storm coverage. He said clearly that he'd rather see the squall line stay together. It would produce straight line winds that could do damage, but if it broke up, things could get much worse.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Facebook is shwoing quarter sized hail in Grand Prairie, TX earlier this morning. A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 3 PM for portions of north central and northeast Texas including McKinney, Corsicana, and Temple.
Photo courtesy: @Star_KatherineK

[Bunkertor]

Half of Oklahoma now clear sky.

[WeatherGuesser]

Half of Oklahoma now clear sky.

Radar shows the current storm line almost out of OK. The western half of the state isn't even in the slight risk area.

I'm more concerned about the stuff moving up out of MS.

[Alyono]

SPC did not go high risk. IN fact, they REDUCED the size of the mod risk

NO major outbreak

[ronyan]

SPC did not go high risk. IN fact, they REDUCED the size of the mod risk

NO major outbreak

Little early to claim that don't you think? We have days left in this threat.

[Alyono]

SPC did not go high risk. IN fact, they REDUCED the size of the mod risk

NO major outbreak

Little early to claim that don't you think? We have days left in this threat.

I'm talking about today. No need to overhype today. Could still be a few dangerous tornadoes and if you're hit by them, it is major for you.

Remember, Joplin occurred on a typical spring tornado outbreak day. All depends where the tornadoes will hit

[WeatherGuesser]

SPC did not go high risk. IN fact, they REDUCED the size of the mod risk

NO major outbreak

I just saw that, and not by a little bit either. They shrunk it a lot. Of course, that could mean whatever happens will be more concentrated.

But I'm also seeing that current activity is moving east of the Moderate. So are they expecting more to develop later further west?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

SPC did not go high risk. IN fact, they REDUCED the size of the mod risk

NO major outbreak

I just saw that, and not by a little bit either. They shrunk it a lot. Of course, that could mean whatever happens will be more concentrated.

But I'm also seeing that current activity is moving east of the Moderate. So are they expecting more to develop later further west?

Yes. As an upper-level jet streak moves across northern Texas towards the Moderate risk area, sufficient forcing is expected to break the cap and allow for several supercells to develop. With CAPE of 2000j/kg (and increasing), plenty of wind shear, and dewpoints in the upper 60s, these supercells are expected to be long-tracked and may in return put down long-tracked and strong to significant tornadoes.