WPAC: TAPAH - Post-Tropical

[stormkite]

Has the look of a future midgit typhoon atm. :

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Imagine if this will repeat Faxai. Could enhance the WWB. There is a nearing MJO too.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TCFA Issued.
WTPN21 PGTW 270230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8N 146.6E TO 13.7N 146.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 146.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3N
145.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WHILE A
DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS PERSISTED TO THE SOUTH. A 262240Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ADDITIONALLY SHOWS THE LLCC IS POORLY DEFINED
WHILE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTH. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE (29 TO
30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280230Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Been raining all day today as this disturbance moves closer to the islands. Very ominous looking dark clouds outside and raining but winds isn't much...

Loving this cool weather though after weeks of ultra hot sunrays

[stormkite]

looks a midgit spinner on rb satpic as well they tend to have a very rapid intensification period during there life as a tc.
http://weather.jeffspiratescove.com/

TPPN10 PGTW 270637

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (S OF GUAM)

B. 27/0532Z

C. 11.1N

D. 146.3E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. PT AGREES WITH DT AND MET YIELDS A 1.5.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
27/0352Z 10.8N 146.3E MMHS

[stormkite]

JMA


TD
Issued at 07:25 UTC, 27 April 2014

<Analyses at 27/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N10°20'(10.3°)
E146°25'(146.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 28/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°05'(11.1°)
E145°40'(145.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

RSMC
2014APR27 100100 2.4 997.6/ +0.0 / 34.0

[Extratropical94]

99W INVEST 140427 1200 11.8N 146.4E WPAC 25 1004

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270221ZAPR2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 11.8N 146.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 146.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 12.6N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 13.3N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 14.2N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.2N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.2N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.5N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.1N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 146.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS
6 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 270221Z APR 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 270230).//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Just waking up to our 6th TC of the season. Looks like rain will be the issue...



Tropical Depression 06W...

[euro6208]

Prognostic Reasoning

interesting...

WDPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY-
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 270949Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LLCC WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER (TPW) PRODUCT INDICATES A STRONGER, MORE SYMMETRIC DEEP
MOISTURE ENVELOPE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 271127Z METOP-
B IMAGE AS WELL AS THE RECENT PGTW POSITION FIX. A SHIP REPORT ABOUT
120 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CURRENT CENTER INDICATED NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS AT 18 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1006 MB.
BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25
KNOTS, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A
DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS PRODUCING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW POSITIONED NEAR 35N 155E. TD 06W
IS LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD A
BREAK IN THE STR CREATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 06W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-TO MID-LEVEL STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST
THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE NORTH. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN POSITIONING AND IN THE TIMING OF THE NORTHWESTWARD
TURN, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. TD 06W
ORIGINATED FROM A STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING SLOWLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
ORGANIZES. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VIGOROUS THROUGH
TAU 48 AND SST WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT ABOUT 28C. AFTER
TAU 48, INTERACTION WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO
HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 06W IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS WELL AS BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AT WHICH POINT THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN. TD 06W IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 120.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 271529
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP062014
200 AM CHST MON APR 28 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W FORMS SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.0N 146.4E

ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH AT 7 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 06W WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 DEGREES
NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.4 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W IS MOVING NORTH AT 7 MPH. 06W IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 800 AM.

$$

W.AYDLETT

[richard-K2013]

In this imagery,seems the eyewall is organizing.
According to the well upper-level outflow and the low vertical wind shear, the environment is now favorable for it to develop with latitude under 15 degrees.
I think it may be upgraded to a TS around the 00Z UTC by RSMC-Tokyo.

[euro6208]

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
TINIAN...SAIPAN...ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN.



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 272138 CCA
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP062014
800 AM CHST MON APR 28 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W CONTINUING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CNMI...

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE DEFINITION OF TROPICAL STORM WATCH

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.5N 146.5E

ABOUT 135 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH AT 6 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 146.5 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W IS MOVING NORTH AT 6 MPH. 06W IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 35 MPH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 06W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 1100 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AT 200 PM.

$$

W.AYDLETT




000
WTPQ81 PGUM 272350
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
950 AM CHST MON APR 28 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W MOVING TOWARDS THE CNMI...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
TINIAN...SAIPAN...ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF MARIANAS WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OF 39
MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
SPECIFIED AREAS.

ALL PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREAS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESS
PLAN AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT IT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.5N...LONGITUDE 146.5E. STORM MOTION WAS NORTH AT
6 MPH. HIS WAS ABOUT 135 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAGATNA GUAM GU...OR
ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SONGSONG ROTA MP...OR ABOUT
215 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JOSE TINIAN MP AND ABOUT 220 MILES
SOUTH OF GARAPAN SAIPAN MP. STORM INTENSITY WAS 35 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REVIEW YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE DISASTER PLAN AND BECOME READY TO
ACT IF A WARNING IS LATER ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA. LISTEN FOR
FORTHCOMING INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN
TO PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT INITIATE
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN FOR TROPICAL
SYSTEMS. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST
FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE 3 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-280800-
/X.NEW.PGUM.TR.A.0001.140427T2350Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
950 AM CHST MON APR 28 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

...TINIAN AND SAIPAN...

...WIND INFORMATION...
EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ON TUESDAY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPROACHES THE
ISLANDS AROUND NOON. DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT MOVEMENT OF
TD06W...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH
AND DECREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH BY LATE EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 13 FEET WILL QUICKLY BUILD ON TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS.
DEPENDING UPON THE SPEED OF MOTION OF THE TD...SEAS AND WIND WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND
OVER NIGHT. LITTLE INUNDATION IS EXPECTED AS THIS IS A SMALL
SYSTEM AND SO THE EFFECTS ON SAIPAN AND TINIAN WILL BE LIMITED
DURING THE SHORT TIME THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY OVER THE ISLANDS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W ARE EXPECTED TO START LATE TONIGHT WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED.

...ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ALERT TO THE LATEST INFORMATION
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND FROM THE LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIAL IN SAIPAN. BE EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS ABOUT ANY OFF
ISLAND TRAVEL BY BOAT.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 06W MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 7 TO 11 FEET ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72
HOURS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W
WILL BE WEST OF ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN...DEPENDING UPON THE MOTION OF
THE SYSTEM.

$$

EDSON/KLEESCHULTE

[euro6208]

Radar Imagery from NWS Guam showing an eye like feature already ?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Now upgraded to TS Tapah (1405) by the JMA. It is expected to be upgraded to 40 knots.

[euro6208]

Now upgraded to TS Tapah (1405) by the JMA. It is expected to be upgraded to 40 knots.

06W SIX 140428 0000 12.6N 146.7E WPAC 40 993

Likewise

JTWC upgrading 06W to Tropical Storm Tapah with 40 knots in the next update!

[euro6208]

06W SIX 140428 0000 12.8N 147.0E WPAC 50 985

JTWC revises intensity due to better structure and *eyelike feature*

Now up to

50 knots
985 mb!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I wonder how strong could Tapah peak?

[euro6208]

eye?

[stormkite]

Nice eye now visible there was a clearly visible eye last night south of Guam on radar.

Would not like to under that very small destructive core. What affect it has on the WWB is not the issue
its the islands if any that it may affect.