2014 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

LATE APRIL NUMBERS for WPAC BASIN

27/17/8

TS/TY/STY

DEVELOPMENT
Development is not really very favorable on the first quarter of this year for a MT [Major Typhoon] but will be more favorable during the next quarters of the year. Lower pressures, low vertical wind shear, higher Sea Surface Temperatures [SST's] and a higher number of disturbances which are provided by a positive El Nino Southern Oscillation phase this year on MJJ time frame [second quarter of/] in this year. There are not much dry air problems over the tropical region of the basin. Typhoons will more likely to track to the east of 130E and may be close to the IDL, North but closer to the EQ.

Note that this is just my amateur opinion/forecast regarding the possible tropical cyclone activity of the Western Pacific Basin. For official information and details, please refer to the JMA products.

Interesting that your forecast uses NOAA/JTWC word terms in Major typhoons and Super Typhoons that JMA doesn't even use but has a disclaimer directed towards JMA. The highest term JMA uses is only *Typhoon*. Don't mix up 1 min and 10 min storms forecast...

I will release my typhoon forecast maybe sometime June.

[euro6208]

6th TC of the season has just developed southeast of Guam!

[Kingarabian]

6th TC of the season has just developed southeast of Guam!

What are the forecasts for it?

[euro6208]

6th TC of the season has just developed southeast of Guam!

What are the forecasts for it?

06W Thread



You can go here and follow on the WPAC thread.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Rapid Intensification happening here in the WPAC. It was a tropocal depression and then intensified into a tropical storm (or unofficially) a 50 knot tropical storm!

[Ntxw]

Tapah over in the WPAC threads deserves a mention here

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Not surprised if Tapah will become a typhoon.

[euro6208]

Not surprised if Tapah will become a typhoon.

Yep it just did. Our 2nd typhoon of the season!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Not surprised if Tapah will become a typhoon.

Yep it just did. Our 2nd typhoon of the season!

I meant by the JMA.

[euro6208]

2014 Typhoon Season as of April 29...

5 Tropical Storms
2 Typhoons
0 Major Typhoon

Typhoon Tapah ACE- 2.7 and counting
Yearly ACE at 10.3725
Normal Year to Date: 13

Including 1 Depression

http://policlimate.com/tropical/

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Current tally in terms of 10 min

5 TS
2 STS
1 Strong
0 Very Strong
0 Violent

[euro6208]

Next 2 names on the list are Mitag and Hagibis.

Mitag was used twice since 2000.

Mitag was used for a Category 5 140 knot Super Typhoon back in 2002 in the month of March. Killed 2 people in western micronesia and caused 150 million dollars in damage mostly from crops.

Mitag of 2007 was a weaker typhoon but far deadlier. Killing over 100 people in four countries.

Hagibis was used twice since 2000.

Just like Mitag, Hagibis of 2002 intensified to a Category 5 Super Typhoon with winds of 140 knots but luckily, no deaths occured in the islands

2007's Typhoon Hagibis was even deadlier than the first killing 9 people in the P.I...

Similarity?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I remember Hagibis was weak but packed very strong winds blowing roofs, downing trees and resulted in power outages throughout the city. It was like a tornado! We got a direct hit during Hagibis.

[euro6208]

Models saying no development until May 20 due to dry MJO (suppressing) that is parked over our area that is forecast to get even drier during the next 5 days .

[euro6208]

Latest...All quiet it seems in the next few days...

000
FXPQ60 PGUM 070505
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
305 PM CHST WED MAY 7 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
RADAR AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. VAD WINDS SHOW MODERATE EAST-NORTHEAST
TRADES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM TO EAST OF WAKE
ISLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE
MARIANAS TO NEAR YAP AND CHUUK. RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS A LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CAP OF ABOUT 800 MB...KEEPING SHOWERS SHALLOW AND
LIGHT TODAY. GFS TIME HEIGHTS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON GUAM AND ROTA...BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER
SHOT AT MOISTURE FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN THIS WEEKEND. A DECAYING
SHEAR LINE...CURRENTLY EVIDENT EAST OF THE NORTHERN CNMI...COULD
SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD CLOSE TO SAIPAN BY FRIDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THIS FEATURE ADVANCES. CLIMATOLOGY STILL
FAVORS A DRY BIAS IN THE FORECAST...BUT IF THE SHEAR LINE
ADVANCES FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH RESULT COULD BE BREEZIER AND
MORE SHOWERY WEATHER FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING MAJURO FROM THE VICINITY
OF 175E. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE DIFFUSE DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN SUPPORTING A
QUASISTATIONARY MCS JUST TO THE NORTH OF KOSRAE AND JUST TO THE
EAST OF POHNPEI. OTHERWISE...WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN
MICRONESIA LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET.

ONLY MINOR TWEAK TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADJUST NEAR TERM
PREVAILING WINDS FOR THE FORECAST POINTS FROM EAST TO NORTHEAST
BASED ON THE LATEST ASCAT ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.
WEATHER SYSTEMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA LOOK TOO WEAK
AND SMALL TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE OVER ANY OF THE
FORECAST LOCALES. MODELS STILL PROG ZONE OF TRADE-WIND
CONVERGENCE TO EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN MICRONESIA BY THE END
OF THIS WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE ON KOSRAE AND POHNPEI...WHERE TRADE-WIND
CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN
EXACTLY WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THESE FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING CHUUK FROM POHNPEI IS DAMPING
OUT...BUT ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE CHUUK
MARINE ZONE. SMALL SIZE OF THE MCS IN THE VICINITY OF CHUUK
ARGUES FOR A SHORT FORECAST DURATION OF THE SYSTEM. ACCORDINGLY...
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CHUUK WATERS TO TAPER TO ISOLATED BY
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL MAINTAIN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER CHUUK THROUGH DAY 5. VERY DRY AIR
HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD YAP. REDUCED POPS AND CLOUD COVER THERE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MOISTURE COULD BEGIN TO
ENCROACH ON YAP FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR HAS
BRIEFLY OVERSPREAD KOROR...BUT DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS OVER KOROR BY
FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST GFS RUN SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD
AFFECT KOROR DURING THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMA ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM AREA OF CONVERGENT EAST-
SOUTHEAST TRADES SUGGESTS THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE FORECAST SCENARIO.
NIGHT SHIFT MAY WANT TO ADD SCATTERED POPS TO THE KOROR FORECAST
IF SATELLITE TRENDS AND OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

M. AYDLETT/MCELROY

[euro6208]

As of May 7...

5 Tropical Storms
2 Typhoons
0 Major Typhoons

ACE: 11.5425

[euro6208]

TSR predicts the 2014 Northwest Pacific typhoon season will be the most active since 2004,
with activity approximately 25% above the 1965-2013 climate norm.


TSR releases their May forecast

27 Tropical Storms
17 Typhoons
11 Major Typhoons

ACE: 375


http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wow! I can't wait for this season to come. I just hope that there will be no deadly and damaging storms in the basin this year, and that all will be fishies. Or if storms hit, I hope that they will be weak or disorganized.

[euro6208]

Storms more likely: El Niño system raises typhoon risk, NWS Expects El Nino to Bring More Storms This Year

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjHohw7teJg#t=105[/youtube]

Recently held the Annual National Weather Service Tropical Cyclone, Disaster Preparedness, and Climate Workshop and they say 70 percent chance of a typhoon forming from October to December of this year striking the islands...

When we do get El Nino events we do see an increase of storm activity and then later in the year they'll start to develop to the east and south of us and when they're to the east and south there’s always a chance that they're going to be moving toward the island

http://www.guampdn.com/article/20140508/NEWS01/305080001/Storms-more-likely-El-Ni-ntilde-o-system-raises-typhoon-risk

http://www.pacificnewscenter.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=44979:nws-expects-el-nino-to-bring-more-storms-this-year&catid=45:guam-news&Itemid=156

[stormkite]

Myself i would think that quote of a 70% risk would be just the norm for any year in the wespac.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products