Texas Spring-2014

[gboudx]

From Steve McCauleys FB page:

[aggiecutter]

Latest from the SPC:

[aggiecutter]

000
WWUS64 KSHV 271846
WCNSHV

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 97
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
146 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

ARC027-057-061-073-081-091-099-133-139-LAC015-017-027-061-111-119-
OKC089-TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-315-343-387-423-449-459-499-
280200-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.A.0097.140427T1846Z-140428T0200Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 97 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ARKANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 9 COUNTIES

IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS

UNION AR

IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS

COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD HOWARD
LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER
NEVADA SEVIER

IN LOUISIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 PARISHES

IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA

LINCOLN UNION LA

IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA

BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE
WEBSTER

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

MCCURTAIN

IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 13 COUNTIES

IN NORTHEAST TEXAS

BOWIE CAMP CASS
FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON
MARION MORRIS RED RIVER
SMITH TITUS UPSHUR
WOOD

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ASHDOWN...ATLANTA...BOSSIER CITY...
CLARKSVILLE...DAINGERFIELD...DE QUEEN...EL DORADO...FARMERVILLE...
GILMER...HOMER...HOPE...IDABEL...JEFFERSON...LEWISVILLE...
LONGVIEW...MAGNOLIA...MARSHALL...MINDEN...MT PLEASANT...
MT VERNON...NASHVILLE...PITTSBURG...PRESCOTT...QUITMAN...RUSTON...
SHREVEPORT...TEXARKANA...TEXARKANA AND TYLER.
iNWS is an experimental service intended for NWS core partners, including emergency managers, community leaders and other government agencies only. You are encouraged to complete a short survey on iNWS. See the iNWS Service Description Document for more information.

[aggiecutter]

SPC just put Texarkana and areas to the north in a high risk for severe weather:

[JDawg512]

Fire Weather Warning for Austin area. Anyone in our area don't even make a spark if your outside. Doesn't take much in these conditions to get a fire going.

My hope is now on May coupled with a good indication of a strong El Niño to get a pattern shift.

Ntxw, what would be your opinion on when we could see a shift in the weather pattern. Im hoping if not by the end of the first week of May, then by the second week. Is there anything you can see in the next 15 to 30 days that could be the light at the end of the tunnel?


Oh yea and a Fire Weather Watch will be issued for Tuesday. How I miss the Springs of years past. April used to be a damp humid month with rain and storms on a regular basis. Temps were generally more uniform with mid 70s to low 80s. Its now at the point where I don't recognize the what month it is, let alone the seasons and I was born and raised here. Things began to change about 10 or 12 years ago. Really seems like from 2000 on the climate that I knew from the 80s and 90s has just faded away.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, what would be your opinion on when we could see a shift in the weather pattern. Im hoping if not by the end of the first week of May, then by the second week. Is there anything you can see in the next 15 to 30 days that could be the light at the end of the tunnel?

I'm hoping the same. In all honesty I thought by late April the pattern would've slowly shifted gradually into a wetter regime but that hasn't happened. The El Nino to be is still progressing as expressed but we haven't seen the copious rainfall yet at least in our neck of the woods. Memphis sure will be seeing it today, oodles of flooding there, just wish it would've happened to us. The air mass is too cool over the continent still, with blocking remaining over Alaska. I wish some big signal would come up and I'm still hoping, but mother nature will do as she pleases whether we like it or not.

[aggiecutter]

Tornado warning for storm just south of MT. Pleasant, moving toward the Texarkana area. Big tornado on the ground NW of Little Rock, according to weather channel and several storm chasers.

[Rgv20]

Had a high of 109F this afternoon!

[horselattitudesfarm]

Another opportunity for soaking rains missed I'm getting worried about the hydrological situation for Texas this summer. Does anyone know what contingency plans are in place for Austin, San Antonio, and other cities regarding water shortages? Also, can we still blame the latest string of dry springs on ocean currents, or is this something more sinister that is here to stay? I've heard the drought is supposed to last until at least 2020 from certain state climatologists, but I'm no expert on this so I don't really know what to believe.

[South Texas Storms]

Ntxw, what would be your opinion on when we could see a shift in the weather pattern. Im hoping if not by the end of the first week of May, then by the second week. Is there anything you can see in the next 15 to 30 days that could be the light at the end of the tunnel?

I'm hoping the same. In all honesty I thought by late April the pattern would've slowly shifted gradually into a wetter regime but that hasn't happened. The El Nino to be is still progressing as expressed but we haven't seen the copious rainfall yet at least in our neck of the woods. Memphis sure will be seeing it today, oodles of flooding there, just wish it would've happened to us. The air mass is too cool over the continent still, with blocking remaining over Alaska. I wish some big signal would come up and I'm still hoping, but mother nature will do as she pleases whether we like it or not.

I was hoping you would be right about a wetter weather pattern returning for us late this month but unfortunately it hasn't happened. Most of the long range models I've looked at show a hot and dry summer for us this year. Hopefully we can get some good rain events in the next month or two before the summer doldrums set in.

[Ntxw]

I was hoping you would be right about a wetter weather pattern returning for us late this month but unfortunately it hasn't happened. Most of the long range models I've looked at show a hot and dry summer for us this year. Hopefully we can get some good rain events in the next month or two before the summer doldrums set in.

Maybe the EPAC season will start in earnest early. ESPI has been very high so maybe we can get a couple of storms going, doesn't even have to be hurricanes.

[weatherdude1108]

I was hoping you would be right about a wetter weather pattern returning for us late this month but unfortunately it hasn't happened. Most of the long range models I've looked at show a hot and dry summer for us this year. Hopefully we can get some good rain events in the next month or two before the summer doldrums set in.

Maybe the EPAC season will start in earnest early. ESPI has been very high so maybe we can get a couple of storms going, doesn't even have to be hurricanes.

I'm hoping so as well. Someone at work was saying that when he was here in the 90s, he thought he moved to the rain forest with how much it rained back in the day.

It felt humid this morning here, but later in the afternoon, the humidity went to 20% at my place, teens in some cases. I think the Chihuahan Desert is visiting this week (hopeful NOT permanently).

If the pattern of dry Springs started around 10-12 years ago, could correlate with a negative PDO like has been mentioned in previous discussions(?). But I'm no expert on this miserable pattern. My emotions are clouding my logic. My rain barrel is empty.

[ravyrn]

Anyone able to share an image of the velocity for the cells moving into Jacksonville/Palestine area in ETX?

[aggiecutter]

TORNADO WARNING for Cherokee and Rusk Counties in Northeast TX until 3 am CDT!

[aggiecutter]

NBC 6 Weather ‏@NBC6Weather 2m
iNWS Alert - New event. Tornado Warning from 4/28/2014 2:46 AM to 3:15 AM CDT for Panola County

[aggiecutter]

Reed Timmer ‏@reedtimmerTVN 48s
TORNADO WARNING for Carthage, TX area west of Shreveport, LA. Very dangerous supercell

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Everybody ok? Those isolated cells were kind of unexpected to me.

[Tireman4]

Had a high of 109F this afternoon!

Well it is "DRY" heat RGV...LOL...sigh....

[dhweather]

Another opportunity for soaking rains missed I'm getting worried about the hydrological situation for Texas this summer. Does anyone know what contingency plans are in place for Austin, San Antonio, and other cities regarding water shortages? Also, can we still blame the latest string of dry springs on ocean currents, or is this something more sinister that is here to stay? I've heard the drought is supposed to last until at least 2020 from certain state climatologists, but I'm no expert on this so I don't really know what to believe.

More and more cities are looking at reusing waste water as drinking water. It's been more common in Western Texas, but it's been creeping Eastward in the decade plus of drought. Wichita Falls is the latest looking at doing this. With 6-8 more years of drought expected by state climatologist, the outlook is grim.

Of significant concern is this summer. Two of the top 10 driest years on record from Jan 1 - April 27 are 2014 (3rd with 3.85" rain total) and 2011 (9th with 5.05" rain total). If this summer is anything like 2011, we are in a world of trouble. I expect major water restrictions to be put in place.

[TheProfessor]

I hope this summer is not even in the same galaxy of 2011, that was one of the hottest 4th of July celebrations I had ever been to. Hopefully an El Nino can start kicking in by July.