#340 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Apr 28, 2014 4:29 pm
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN/CNTRL LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 282055Z - 282300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS BACKBUILDING ALONG A SFC WIND-SHIFT AXIS
ORIENTED FROM NERN LA SWWD INTO SERN TX AS ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A
MID-LEVEL JET MAX GLANCES THE AREA. WITH A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 2500-3000 J/KG AMIDST AROUND 50 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
POE VWP DATA INDICATE SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ABOVE THE SFC FOR
A LOW TORNADO RISK...AS WELL. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER DEEP ASCENT
RELEGATED TO HIGHER LATITUDES...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER GREATER
SVR COVERAGE WOULD OCCUR AND WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.
..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 04/28/2014
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 30319359 31099344 31479238 30999190 30489211 30139274
30319359
Shear decreases as you go south, so that may be an issue.
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