Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 04/26-30/2014

[Texas Snowman]

Yup, I remember that one.

This one today was unreal. Not as bad as April 27, 2011 but right up there among the most memorable outbreaks of my lifetime. And you're right, it's still not over.

And tomorrow will bring even more activity.

Between The Weather Channel's Carl Parker, Dr. Greg Forbes, and Jim Cantore - and Birmingham's legendary James Spann streaming tonight - I bet I watched 12+ hours of tornado coverage today.

It seemed like every 30 minutes there was a significant tornado - with a debris ball - from Yazoo City to Tupelo to Jackson/suburbs to Tuscaloosa to Bessemer and Birmingham.

Historic day. Someone needs to write a paper on how B-Ham was spared by the high precip supercell raining itself out at the last minute.

[Cyclenall]

The national CTV news here in Canada at 11:00 pm said that the death toll from these 2 days is now at 26. Any validly to that? I notice there is barely any info from the areas hit which is another similarity to March 2, 2012.

There are still 4 TOR warnings ongoing in the overnight period. I think I'm done for now, this wraps up a historic day and one of the craziest tornado outbreaks I've seen. I literally haven't done anything else other than this since Friday evening.

This made me laugh from James last evening when they're coverage got automatically switched over to something else to a viewing area around 11:35 pm:

We need to pull the plug on that and throw it in the river (timer) - James Spann

[Extratropical94]

Another confirmed tornado near Society, Hill, AL, to the east-southeast of Maxwell AFB.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
330 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
EAST CENTRAL MACON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 400 AM CDT

* AT 327 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A
CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR SOCIETY HILL...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF AUBURN.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEAUREGARD AND ROBERT G. PITTS AIRPORT.

THIS INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 85 EXIT NUMBERS 57 THROUGH 58...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...
CALL 1-800-856-0758 OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG ALWX

LAT...LON 3241 8542 3241 8544 3240 8544 3239 8545
3240 8551 3264 8544 3256 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 0831Z 197DEG 42KT 3246 8544

[apocalypt-flyer]

Yesterday really wasn't a million miles away from April 27th 3 years ago. Granted, it wasn't quite as violent but most of the stuff that shot up got a TVS but fortunately it was confined to a relatively small area unlike 3 years ago when everything from Mississippi up to New York got bludgeoned. Still consindering there were only 89 tornadoes up until April 13th this year, the last two days with more than 100 reports or so have been a nasty kick-starter.

SPC kinda sitting on the fence with the risk assessment for today - will probably be a fair bit clearer by 12UTC or even later than that.

[Alyono]

clear skies for MS/AL

could make things very volatile this afternoon

[TideJoe]

clear skies for MS/AL

could make things very volatile this afternoon

We missed the worst of it yesterday here in Hattiesburg. Hopefully today won't be as bad.

[apocalypt-flyer]

clear skies for MS/AL

could make things very volatile this afternoon

Did a couple of sounding runs along the line of Hattiesburg, Meridian, Tusca, Birmingham for 3pm and 6pm. Really doesn't scream calm spring afternoon. Au contraire.

[newtotex]

Is today looking like yesterday?
I'm visiting my parents and we're less than half a mile from Shelton State in south Tuscaloosa. We lost power for several hours last night but thankfully got it back.

[SeGaBob]

I'm looking at a radar and it appears this line of storms is going way to the south of me... is another line supposed to reform for tomorrow?

[SeGaBob]

We're in the slight chance category for severe weather today and tomorrow...


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
353 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140-SCZ040-042>045-047-052-
300800-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-LONG-INLAND LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-TIDAL BERKELEY-
353 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN INLAND MOVING SEA
BREEZE. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE ACROSS
INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
COULD ALSO OCCUR. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE FROM 2 PM UNTIL 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLOWING APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE STRONGEST AND MOST ORGANIZED STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL..AND EVEN
TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER INCLUDING...BUT NOT
LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AT 1-888-383-2024.

$$

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 291245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF MS AND AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD TO
CNTRL AND ERN GULF COAST AND EWD TO THE CAROLINAS AND VA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEVERAL TORNADOES...A FEW
OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG...VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY.

...SYNOPSIS...

A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST MAY PIVOT
SLIGHTLY NWD DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A NUMBER OF
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND IT/S PERIPHERY. OF CONSEQUENCE TO
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...A BROAD CYCLONIC BELT OF STRONG 500-MB
WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE SRN ROCKIES THROUGH SRN
PLAINS...LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS HIGH-MOMENTUM AIR STREAM...EARLY
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TIME-HEIGHT VAD DATA FROM THE SRN
PLAINS INDICATE A DISTINCT 70-80 KT JET STREAK AT 6 KM AGL WHICH
WILL PROGRESS EWD TODAY THROUGH THE ARKLATEX INTO LOWER MS
VALLEY...ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT.

AT THE SURFACE...AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW OVER SERN IA WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD INTO SRN OR CNTRL WI WHILE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM THE MS VALLEY EWD INTO
OH/TN VALLEYS AND CNTRL GULF STATES. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT OVER
MS TODAY WITH THIS FEATURE TRACKING NEWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED.

...TN VALLEY SWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

MATURE-TO-DECAYING MCS ONGOING FROM NERN GA TO THE CNTRL FL PNHDL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WHILE
PROGRESSING EWD. IN ITS WAKE...STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL ENHANCE THE POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS
--CURRENTLY RESIDING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SRN LA-- THROUGH
MS/AL/SRN TN WITH DEWPOINTS RISING BACK THROUGH THE 60S. THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR BENEATH A RESIDUAL PLUME OF MODESTLY STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...PROMOTING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.

FORCING FOR ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE MIDLEVEL
JET STREAK PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX INTO LOWER MS
VALLEY...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVING NWD INTO SRN PARTS OF MS/AL AND THE COLD FRONT
EDGING EWD/SEWD INTO WRN PARTS OF TN/MS TO FOSTER SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...THE COMBINATION OF THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND 50-70 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE
FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG ACROSS PARTS OF MS AND AL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

BY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...STORMS WILL LIKELY
COALESCE INTO A NE-SW-ORIENTED MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND
BOWING STRUCTURES WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO CNTRL
AND ERN GULF COAST.

...CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

A BELT OF 25-30 KT SLY FLOW AT 850 MB WILL BE MAINTAINED TODAY E OF
THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE POLEWARD FLUX OF
65-70 F BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. AND WHILE
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...THE INCREASING
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG.

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT ALONG THE NWD-MOVING WEDGE FRONT AND/OR
RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING
MCS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO FOSTER ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED TSTMS BY AFTERNOON WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
FEATURING A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 30-40 KT OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS CNTRL NC
THIS AFTERNOON INVOF OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
ENHANCED.

...OH VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA ATTENDANT TO A VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NWD
FROM THE MID SOUTH/LOWER OH VALLEY WILL AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR CONFLUENCE
ZONES TO PROMOTE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
AMIDST A STEEP-LAPSE-RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF
500-1500 J/KG. FORECAST WIND PROFILES INDICATE GENERALLY STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE WARM FRONT
WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED. AS SUCH CONVECTIVE MAY BE A
MIXTURE OF LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY LARGE
HAIL. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LINEAR
STRUCTURES WHILE A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SUPERCELLS
INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT.

..MEAD/MOSIER.. 04/29/2014

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1450Z (10:50AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Alyono]

seems as if SPC is not expecting the day to be as bad... saying only a few strong tornadoes?

[TideJoe]

seems as if SPC is not expecting the day to be as bad... saying only a few strong tornadoes?

Didn't they say the same thing yesterday just before it got bad?

[Tireman4]

From the Birmingham AFD.....

000
FXUS64 KBMX 291131
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
631 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR ABOUT THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA IS IN AN
ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER WE CAN RE-
DESTABILIZE LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IF THE ANSWER TO THAT
QUESTION IS YES...AND ALMOST ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT
IS...THEN SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN DUE TO FAVORABLE
VEERING WIND PROFILES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. AN 80+ KT JET STREAK AT 500 MB WILL
ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
SURFACE FORCING OF THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC`S BY 20Z (3 PM) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD FROM
THERE TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. WITH THE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE TRAINING
SUPERCELLS YESTERDAY AND EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGHT IT WAS
PRUDENT TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR NOW.

[Tireman4]

From the Birmingham NWS AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1115 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MORNING MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWED A FULLY DEVELOPED MCS...COMPLETE
WITH ATTENDANT MESOLOW AND MESO HIGH COUPLET...IN SOUTHERN GA AND
NORTHERN FL. IN ALABAMA...THERE APPEARED TO BE A WEAK MESOHIGH
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE. VERY WEAK...TO THE POINT WHERE IT
BARELY SHOWS UP. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
WEST TN SOUTHWARD TO AROUND VICKSBURG OR NATCHEZ MS. EARLY MORNING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF ALABAMA...LOTS OF SUNSHINE IN MUCH OF MS...AND
VARYING AMOUNTS OF STRATUS AND OTHER CLOUDINESS IN BETWEEN. ONE
INTERESTING THING IS THAT THE STRATUS AND LIFTED/MIXED OUT FOG
FROM THIS MORNING WAS ACTUALLY BEING PUSHED NORTH AND
NORTHWESTWARD. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME THIN SPOTS ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE SUBTLY BUT NOTICEABLY LOWER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY (MID 60S VERSUS NEAR 70). THERE`S ALSO A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF MOBILE...EAST OF NEW ORLEANS...THAT ALMOST
SEEMS TO BE ANCHORED THERE IN THE GULF. BEGINNING TO WONDER IF
THAT CLUSTER OF STORMS...AND THE REMAINING STORMS ALONG THE OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF IT...ARE DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE
RETURN FLOW POTENTIAL INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.

FINALLY...THERE WAS A WEAK SURFACE LOW BETWEEN SHREVEPORT AND
LAKE CHARLES. THAT`S A LITTLE BIT DISCONCERTING -- IF THAT LOW
DEVELOPS EVEN A LITTLE BIT MORE...IT COULD HELP DRAW UP SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ON ITS EAST SIDE WHILE ALSO ENHANCING THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD (AND PERHAPS CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO BACK AROUND
MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST).

SPC MESOANALYSIS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST WE ARE STILL AT
LEAST SEVERAL HOURS AWAY FROM ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA OF CONCERN (THE MODERATE RISK AREA)...WITH
SBCAPES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG AND CINS 100 TO 300. BUT THATS
ALSO WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IS.

BOTTOM LINE...AT THIS TIME...WE THINK THE EARLIEST DEVELOPMENT
POTENTIAL WILL BE TO OUR WEST IN MISSISSIPPI. ITS GOING TO TAKE A
FEW MORE HOURS TO GET ANY DEVELOPMENT DIRECTLY IN ALABAMA. BUT AS
THAT FRONT MOVES THIS WAY LATER ON...WE STILL WILL BE UNDER THE
GUN.

[newtotex]

Sun is back out in south Tuscaloosa. Currently sitting at 71/67 here.

[SeGaBob]

It appears that more storms are starting to refire in North Central Louisiana around Monroe...

[CrazyC83]

Forecast Discussion


SPC AC 291630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SRN
AND ERN MS INTO W CENTRAL/SW AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NC/VA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEVERAL TORNADOES...A FEW
OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG...VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY.

...MS/AL AND VICINITY THROUGH TONIGHT...
A 90-120 KT MID-UPPER JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY NEWD FROM TX
TO THE OH VALLEY TODAY...WITH ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE JET STREAK
MANIFESTED AS THE MID CLOUD BAND FROM TXK-JBR. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
JET STREAK...A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEWD FROM LA
TO THE TN VALLEY...BEGINNING AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL LA. IN THE WAKE OF
A LARGE OVERNIGHT MCS...RAPID RECOVERY IS ENSUING FROM LA TO SRN MS
AS SURFACE HEATING OCCURS AND THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR SPREADS
NEWD. THE PLUME OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS BEEN CONFINED
TO THE NW GULF COAST...WITH WEAKER LAPSE RATES WHERE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING OCCURRED OVERNIGHT.

THE LOWER 70S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG
ACROSS LA BY MIDDAY...WHILE LESSER BUOYANCY WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO
AL. STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE ZONE OF RAPID DESTABILIZATION...AND A COMBINATION
OF DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NEWD ACROSS
MS/AL DURING THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ AND
DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER MCS TO EVOLVE BY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL
AL. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 70 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 150-200
M2/S2 IN A MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE MORE
DISCRETE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

...NC THIS AFTERNOON...
SURFACE HEATING ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...MODERATE
BUOYANCY IS STILL EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
ALSO...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...
SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...BUT THE SURFACE
FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION IS UNCLEAR GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT. STILL..WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
APPROACHING...SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED STORMS SHOULD FORM AND SPREAD
NWD/NEWD...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING ISOLATED SEVERE RISK.

..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 04/29/2014

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1637Z (12:37PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Tireman4]

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0475
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN AND SERN LA / MUCH OF SRN AND
CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 291702Z - 291830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. RAPID SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND A TORNADIC SUPERCELL THREAT WILL LIKELY ENSUE AS STORMS MATURE.

DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE UPPER TX
COASTAL PLAIN. AN ARCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A PRIOR MCS
--CURRENTLY OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO-- IS DRAPED FROM NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER INTO FAR SWRN MS. THE AIRMASS TO THE S AND W
OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS BECOMING QUITE UNSTABLE WITH AN AGITATED
CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF LA AND STRONG HEATING OCCURRING
OVER MUCH OF MS. AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCES NWD ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MODERATE TO STRONG /1500-2500 J PER KG
MLCAPE/ DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED.

AS ASCENT PROVIDED BY A 130 KT JET STREAK AND BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/MOISTENING OCCUR...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
FIRST NEAR THE MS RIVER AND SPREAD EWD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MS AND
EVENTUALLY INTO AL. STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS WILL STRONGLY
FAVOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODES AND A FORECAST STRENGTHENING IN H85
FLOW /30-40 KT/ THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BOOST
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND CONCURRENTLY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TORNADO
POTENTIAL. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/ AND A LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL
THREAT IS PROBABLE.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2014


ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 32429166 33599031 33928952 33748879 33378847 32238869
31308902 30788951 30469043 30549152 31199197 32429166

[Tireman4]

TORCON for April 29, 2014:

Tue Apr 29 - severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak continues, at least in parts of the South: northeast, central, south LA, MS, AL, north, central and southwest GA, west and east FL panhandle, north and central SC, NC, TN, KY, southwest and southeast VA, southwest WV, OH, IN, central and east IL, south
MI. TORCON - 7 centarl and south MS, central and southwest AL, central GA; 6 - north MS, north AL, north GA; 5 central NC, north SC, southeast LA; 2 to 4 rest of area