Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 04/26-30/2014

[windnrain]

Oh look, there are 3 green pixels southwest of Baton Rouge...


**hopeful**

[yzerfan]

Local media and NWS reporting flooding in downtown Mobile within the last hour.

I think it was WEAR out of Pensacola that said parts of Mobile had gotten three inches of rain in 20 minutes earlier today, so no surprise to see flash floods.

[Janie2006]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
531 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

MSC065-077-292315-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0065.000000T0000Z-140429T2315Z/
LAWRENCE MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-
531 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON DAVIS AND EAST
CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 531 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR ARM...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
PRENTISS AROUND 545 PM CDT.
CARSON AROUND 550 PM CDT.

[Janie2006]

One "problem" (or saving grace) has been that screaming shear that's just blowing the tops off of these thunderstorms. Look at the radar presentation.

[Janie2006]

TORNADO WARNING
NCC015-292315-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.TO.W.0010.140429T2232Z-140429T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
632 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BERTIE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT

* AT 630 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH OF
BETHEL...OR 12 MILES EAST OF TARBORO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
LEWISTON WOODVILLE AROUND 705 PM EDT.
ROXOBEL AROUND 710 PM EDT.
AULANDER AROUND 715 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE KELFORD AND
BURDEN.

[WeatherGuesser]

35 fatal reported so far.

[ravyrn]

Today looks like a bust for the chasers in the MS/AL area. Hopefully it stays that way. Does anyone recall the chaser who was in Louisville last night w/ the 3 medical personnel in his vehicle?

[EF-5bigj]

I think the moderate risk was a bit over done. The storms turned into a line pretty quickly.

[Texas Snowman]

I'm not sure the moderate risk was overdone. Earlier today, it looked like - at least to me - that there would be a fair amount of severe weather today.

Fortunately, there was not.

[Texas Snowman]

The last two days have been plenty for a while.

My heart just breaks hearing some of the stories that have come out of Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama.

[BigB0882]

I haven't seen a drop of rain out of this and got just some mist yesterday. Lucked out on missing the severe weather but the event was a total bust this far south. I stepped outside a minute ago and could see some stars.

[RL3AO]

Maps like this make me very proud of the science of meteorology.

[ravyrn]

Maps like this make me very proud of the science of meteorology.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bma1IyiCQAAla_f.png

Agreed!

[CrazyC83]

Tomorrow is rather complicated as well. It appears today was an issue of the atmosphere unable to reload after the energy was used up yesterday (remember the 2012 derecho on June 29, the next day was expected to be bad as well but the energy was not there), and the moisture was starved by the coastal storms. Will tomorrow be influenced by the NC storms right now or will it be wide open in the Carolinas?

[CrazyC83]

339
NOUS44 KJAN 300236
PNSJAN
ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
301445-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
936 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

..NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 04/28/14 TORNADO EVENT


LOUISVILLE TORNADO

RATING: EF-4
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 185 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 35.5 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 3/4 MILE
FATALITIES: 9
INJURIES: UNKNOWN

START DATE: APR 28 2014
START TIME: 351 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 2 NNE RENFROE
START LAT/LON: 32.888/-89.443

END DATE: APR 28 2014
END TIME: 447 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 5 NNE LOUISVILLE
END LAT/LONG 33.194/-89.001

SURVEY_SUMMARY: THIS TORNADO PRODUCED A LARGE
AREA OF EF2 TO EF4 DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH.
HUNDREDS OF STRUCTURES WERE HEAVILY DAMAGED
AND THOUSANDS OF TREES WERE SNAPPED AND
UPROOTED. THE EF4 DAMAGE CONSISTED OF SEVERAL
HOMES AND APARTMENTS THAT WERE REDUCED TO
SLABS...INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS THAT WERE
COLLAPSED...CHICKEN HOUSES THAT WERE
COMPLETELY DESTROYED WITH LITTLE TRACE
LEFT OF THEM...DEBARKED AND DENUDED TREES
AND A COLLAPSED CELL TOWER.


EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES
TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA.

[Texas Snowman]

Tomorrow is rather complicated as well. It appears today was an issue of the atmosphere unable to reload after the energy was used up yesterday (remember the 2012 derecho on June 29, the next day was expected to be bad as well but the energy was not there), and the moisture was starved by the coastal storms. Will tomorrow be influenced by the NC storms right now or will it be wide open in the Carolinas?

TWC's Dr. Forbes alluded to the same thing before he and Jim Cantore signed off tonight. Said he wasn't very confident in his forecast for tomorrow (after today).

Said there SHOULD be some significant players on the field tomorrow from Maryland to the south. But he pointed to what happened today and said that he would just have to come in and reassess the situation in the morning.

[yzerfan]

WEARTV is reporting two deaths in Escambia County, Florida (greater Pensacola) due to flash flooding. Six inches of rain in an hour are widely reported and it may have been 10-12 inches locally.

[CrazyC83]

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
943 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

FLC033-091-113-300700-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-140430T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OKALOOSA FL-SANTA ROSA FL-ESCAMBIA FL-
943 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ESCAMBIA COUNTY...

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES...

AT 933 PM CDT...FLASH FLOODING WAS ONGOING IN THE WARNED AREA.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR SOUTHERN ESCAMBIA
COUNTY...INCLUDING PENSACOLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY AREA...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
NOW. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. DO
NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE FLEEING AN AREA SUBJECT TO
FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. NEVER DRIVE AROUND
BARRICADES PLACED BY LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AS THEY ARE THERE FOR YOUR
SAFETY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 8747 3032 8748 3034 8743 3040 8743
3043 8735 3045 8741 3051 8745 3061 8739
3067 8741 3070 8745 3070 8639 3045 8639
3045 8642 3048 8646 3041 8659 3042 8643
3038 8639 3038 8683 3031 8718

$$

[CrazyC83]

Some areas around Pensacola have had around 16 inches of rain tonight alone...incredible.

[yzerfan]

Currently a live broadcast out of Mobile, AL

http://www.local15tv.com/news/features/live-news/