Texas Spring-2014

[TheProfessor]

I'm hoping that this pattern change next week will bring monsoonal type rains to Texas, the type that dump 3+" to most of the state.

[weatherdude1108]

That would be nice!! Of course, this is typically the wettest period of the year (Spring) as far as normal climatology for us. The Fall is a close second.

I honestly can't remember the last time we had a Spring (or Fall/Winter) here that had "normal" rain, at least in the south central Texas area (EWX SA/Austin). 2007 or 2010 possibly, but I think those were predominantly Summer rain events ironically after drier Springs. I put some links for average and precipitation stats/measurements for rainfall at Austin, DFW, Houston, and Rio Grande City.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/ewx/aus/attmonrain.pdf

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=dmoprecip

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_ ... ls_summary

http://www.weather.com/weather/wxclimat ... raph/78582

[Ntxw]

Austin and central TX had well above normal precip last fall, that propelled the region to above normal for the year. Seems like ages ago right?

[wxman57]

Not much rain showing up for Houston through 192hrs on the 12Z GFS. It's too darned cold, though!

[vbhoutex]

Can you say "RETURNING DROUGHT"? Closing out this month with 1.72" of rain. 1.54" of it was from one storm!

[dhweather]

I would argue the drought never left. If the pattern change next week doesn't bring significant rains, we are in serious trouble.

[dhweather]

Just testing ability to post an image. AHEM.


I hope this "test" is right.

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow: Austin and central TX had well above normal precip last fall, that propelled the region to above normal for the year. Seems like ages ago right?

Oh man. It does! Distant memory.

Hoping next week, the long-term verifies!

[weatherdude1108]

The past couple days, they have been hinting at a pattern change next week. Bring the rain!

"000
FXUS64 KEWX 302004
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
304 PM CDT WED APR 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
NEAR RECORD MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER EVENING NORTH WINDS DECOUPLE. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NW THURSDAY TO RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND THE SAME AS THOSE OF TODAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO WILL PRODUCE SOME BROKEN MID-LEVEL CEILINGS THURSDAY NIGHT AND KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES FROM APPROACHING RECORD VALUES FOR MAY 2.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LIGHT MORNING SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP FROM THE CLOUDS AND MID-LEVELINSTABILITY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE AND MOST OF THE ENERGY DROPPING STRAIGHT SOUTH INTO MEXICO SHOULD KEEP MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS TRACES. MORE BELOW NORMAL MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CREEP BACK OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT MORNING CLOUDINESS IS NOT FORECAST TO DEVELOP UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE DEEPENING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODEL CONSENSUS IS TRENDING TOWARD A LOW LATITUDE STORM SYSTEM. IF THIS VERIFIES...SOME SIGNIFICANT RAIN POTENTIAL COULD AWAIT JUST OUTSIDE THE 7-DAY FORECAST."

[Texas Snowman]

Ntxw (and others who are interested), take a peek over in the Winter Weather thread.

I put a couple of things in the "2014 Texas Winter" thread. Joe B had a LOT to say today about his thoughts for NEXT winter.

I'm bowled over, like "Wow!"

[Ntxw]

This will send some shivers down spines. Wxman57 must be jealous and furious that it only shows 90 in Houston, one of the cooler spots!

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/dallas-fort-worth-to-hit-mid-90s-next-week-a-historical-perspective/

HEADLINE: Much of ERCOT, including the Dallas Fort Worth region, will likely experience a period of hot weather next week. The latest European model guidance solutions are forecasting temperatures to approach the 95-100F mark in Dallas next Monday through Wednesday. Since 1960, the greater Dallas region has only observed daytime high temperatures to equal or exceed 95F seven days during the May 1-15 time frame, ranking this event inside the top 1% of hottest days observed if achieved. Looking into the summer months that follow, 6 out of 7 years when Dallas hit 95F during the May 1-15 time frame, the region experienced a hotter than average summer (June-August) with a near seasonable to colder than average Northeast.

Those who got tired of cold, well here comes the dry, HEAT. If you trust the euro, GFS is upper 80s. However luckily this heat is a result of being ahead of an incoming slow moving Baja system. So maybe, just maybe the euro may be onto something?

[aggiecutter]

Retweeted by Brandon Ivey
Jennifer Watson ‏@JWatson_Wx 3h
.@NWSLittleRock rated the Mayflower/Vilonia/El Paso, AK #tornado an EF4. Peak winds 180-190 mph. Length 41.3 miles. Width 3/4 mile.

[Texas Snowman]

Wow. Official NWS low in Denison this morning hit 39 degrees.

On May 1st.

That's the second year in a row that we have been down in the 30s during the month of May up here in the Red River Valley. It hit 34 degrees last year in early May if memory serves correct.

I believe that is also the seventh consecutive month we've had a low temperature reading down in the 30s here in D-Town.

[Ntxw]

Wow. Official NWS low in Denison this morning hit 39 degrees.

On May 1st..

That is quite impressive sir!

Fingers crossed for the slow moving storm on the guidance with lots of rain! Good way to start May

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Anybody else notice 1899 in the chart right below the current year?

Also, JB says its a modiki, very cold winter again.

Is it possible the GOA warm pool stays? If it does with a strong El nino, can i be clever and just combine big moisture with super cold? Or is it just not that simple?

[aggiecutter]

Anyone having issues accessing the NOAA NCEP Web site. I keep getting this message when trying to enter the Web site: "The requested URL /NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/ was not found on this server." I tried 3 different DNS servers and flushed my DNS resolver. However, I still get the same message. Here's the link I use to access the Web site. It has been on my favorites bar for nearly a year:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/

[Portastorm]

El Nino this fall can't come soon enough ...



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[South Texas Storms]

Anyone having issues accessing the NOAA NCEP Web site. I keep getting this message when trying to enter the Web site: "The requested URL /NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/ was not found on this server." I tried 3 different DNS servers and flushed my DNS resolver. However, I still get the same message. Here's the link I use to access the Web site. It has been on my favorites bar for nearly a year:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/

NOAA updated their NCEP Web site today and they changed the URL to their models page.

Go to http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov then click on model analysis and guidance, then model guidance, and then select your model area and model.

[aggiecutter]

Anyone having issues accessing the NOAA NCEP Web site. I keep getting this message when trying to enter the Web site: "The requested URL /NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/ was not found on this server." I tried 3 different DNS servers and flushed my DNS resolver. However, I still get the same message. Here's the link I use to access the Web site. It has been on my favorites bar for nearly a year:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/

NOAA updated their NCEP Web site today and they changed the URL to their models page.

Go to http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov then click on model analysis and guidance, then model guidance, and then select your model area and model.

Thanks, I noticed the new link when I did a Google search on it.
This new link will take your straight to the model page:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/

[Ntxw]

Anybody else notice 1899 in the chart right below the current year?

Also, JB says its a modiki, very cold winter again.

Is it possible the GOA warm pool stays? If it does with a strong El nino, can i be clever and just combine big moisture with super cold? Or is it just not that simple?

This is a good discussion for later in the year. In contrary to him, I do not believe we will see a modoki El Nino. All signs point to EP/traditional. It's not that simple, El Nino's often keep Canada warm. 2009/2010 and 2002/2003 had very strong -AO/-NAO couplet to help which we can't forecast that for more than a month at a time.