Texas Spring-2014

[dhweather]

Mind boggling - Mobile/Pensacola has received 26" of rain in two days. DFW has had 24" in the last 12 months.

[Ntxw]

Mind boggling - Mobile/Pensacola has received 26" of rain in two days. DFW has had 24" in the last 12 months.

It's the greatest flooding event that area has seen since the 1997 El Nino. Note again, when something extreme happens in the Oceans somewhere else pays the price and sometimes biblical proportions be it drought or flood.

[Ntxw]

Guidance is coming into agreement of a low system, slow moving trough to progress across the southwest through Texas with a tropical like air mass ahead once we get past the early week heat wave. Lets hope this is the real deal.

[gboudx]

Guidance is coming into agreement of a low system, slow moving trough to progress across the southwest through Texas with a tropical like air mass ahead once we get past the early week heat wave. Lets hope this is the real deal.

What heat wave? NWS is showing the highest temp being 90 on Saturday. They aren't showing, or even discussing mid-90's to 100 like Michael Ventrice mentioned on his blog. Any idea what he's seeing that the mets at the NWS are not?

[Tireman4]

Well heat wave could be relative to what we have had this year...

[weatherdude1108]

El Nino this fall can't come soon enough ...



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Agreed! I have been watering once a week per our local restrictions, and I'm still getting soil cracks developing in my yard. Muddy after watering yesterday, cracks later that day. Of course the humidity has been in the teens since Monday, recovering to about 60% at night, which adds insult to injury. Ridiculous for this time of year, or any time of year! Dry for Lubbock even.
At one point yesterday (or day before?), the humidity in Austin was 15%, and it was higher in Lubbock (25%) during the same hour. But, El Paso still had us beat at 8%.

I put in a bunch of native/adapted plants/trees in my yard in early March. The ironic thing is that they require more water to get established (once a day for two weeks, then twice a week (as needed) during the first growing season after planting.

I just ran out of the rain water I had in my rain barrel Saturday. Back to the tap and feeling guilty about draining Lake Travis. But, at least I'm down to watering the new plantings just twice a week. Hoping to get down to once a month before too long, even in the death throws of Summer.

[gboudx]

Well heat wave could be relative to what we have had this year...

True Dat! I'm wondering about the mid-90's to 100 Ventrice mentioned because NWS doesn't show it. Those temps would be a heat wave. Mid to upper80's is, like you say, relative.

[
Agreed! I have been watering once a week per our local restrictions, and I'm still getting soil cracks developing in my yard.

Our restrictions are 1 watering every 2 weeks. I don't even try to keep the cracks from developing. It's pointless with such restrictions. We've been in this home a little over 1 year. With last year's heat and water restrictions, and this year's lack of rainfall and restrictions, our backyard looks terrible. It's really uneven and the tree line creates so much shade, the bermuda won't grow. I need to go New Mexico-style and ditch the grass for rock.

[weatherdude1108]

Well heat wave could be relative to what we have had this year...

True Dat! I'm wondering about the mid-90's to 100 Ventrice mentioned because NWS doesn't show it. Those temps would be a heat wave. Mid to upper80's is, like you say, relative.

[
Agreed! I have been watering once a week per our local restrictions, and I'm still getting soil cracks developing in my yard.

Our restrictions are 1 watering every 2 weeks. I don't even try to keep the cracks from developing. It's pointless with such restrictions. We've been in this home a little over 1 year. With last year's heat and water restrictions, and this year's lack of rainfall and restrictions, our backyard looks terrible. It's really uneven and the tree line creates so much shade, the bermuda won't grow. I need to go New Mexico-style and ditch the grass for rock.

Yeah! I may follow your lead on that one.

[Ntxw]

Yeah relative, I probably should have said above average temperatures for a few days before clouds roll in. WSI was too quick to jump on a run or two of the Euro, I'd take the compromise of the cooler GFS and warmer Euro 88-92. Given the soil is dry, I'd favor the higher end.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose is not very optimistic about this upcoming Summer in the rain department on his video blog, but cautiously optimistic in today's written blog about next weekend.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

"Most of today's forecast solution point toward an increasing chance for rain showers and thunderstorms next weekend when the trough of low pressure over northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest slowly track east across Texas. Atmospheric conditions are forecast to be favorable for a fairly widespread coverage of rain both Saturday and Sunday. Its possible parts of the Hill Country and Central Texas could see some significant amounts of rain next weekend. Details are still very unclear but this appears to be a nice break in the persistent dry pattern.
Beyond the weekend of the 10th & 11th, there are some indications a little cooler air may spread south into Texas around the middle of the month.

Bob"

[Texas Snowman]

Might want to remember to say a prayer for The Weather Channel's tornado and severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes.

Saw today where they have announced he is having surgery on Friday for colon cancer.

He said doctors believe they caught it early enough so that it hasn't spread and that his prognosis is good.

[gpsnowman]

Yeah relative, I probably should have said above average temperatures for a few days before clouds roll in. WSI was too quick to jump on a run or two of the Euro, I'd take the compromise of the cooler GFS and warmer Euro 88-92. Given the soil is dry, I'd favor the higher end.

Good call. Most of the forecasts now have temps in that range. No more mid 90's in their outlooks. There will be enough time for mid 90's soon enough. Yuck. Summer is near!!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Might want to remember to say a prayer for The Weather Channel's tornado and severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes.

Saw today where they have announced he is having surgery on Friday for colon cancer.

He said doctors believe they caught it early enough so that it hasn't spread and that his prognosis is good.

will say a prayer.

[aggiecutter]

According to the 6z GFS someone had better call Noah for North and Northeast Texas:

[dhweather]

GFS and Euro look promising for a significant rain for a large part of the state in the 8-10 day range. The only problem is models in the 8-10 day range are higher than half the voters in Colorado or Washington.

[wxman57]

Note that the 00Z Euro had the rain all west of the Dallas-Ft. Worth area through day 10.

[Rgv20]

NWS in Brownsville has a forecast low of 55 for tonight not to bad for a May 3 morning! Late next week it looks like an unsettled/wet pattern is shaping up for much of Texas, still plenty of time to watch it unfold.

[South Texas Storms]

The 12z GFS and CMC are still indicating that a large part of Texas could see over 1 inch of rain with the system possibly arriving next weekend. I'm currently cautiously optimistic about this as it's still about a week away.

[aggiecutter]

12z GFS brings flooding to the Red River Valley of North Texas next weekend(10th-11th).

[Portastorm]

GFS and Euro look promising for a significant rain for a large part of the state in the 8-10 day range. The only problem is models in the 8-10 day range are higher than half the voters in Colorado or Washington.

The 1,440-hour GFS shows a Cat 5 in the Gulf!!!